September 23, 2025
U.S. Senate
Alabama: A recently released late August Alabama Senate survey (The Alabama Poll; 8/24-26; 600 AL likely Republican primary voters) again found Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) leading US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) by a substantial margin. The Alabama Poll posted AG Marshall to a 37-16% lead over Congressman Moore. In July, McLaughlin & Associates released a poll showing a similar 35-12% Marshall margin. The Alabama primary is scheduled for May 19. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers will runoff in a June 16 secondary election. Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) is eschewing running for a second term in order to compete in the open Governor’s race.
Georgia: The new Quantus Insights Peach State poll finds first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) falling into a dead heat with one Republican US House member and leads another within the polling margin of error. According to the Quantus study (9/9-12; 624 GA likely general election voters; online and text), Sen. Ossoff and US Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) are tied at 38% preference and US Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) trails the Senator, 37-40%. Former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, son of long-time University of Georgia football coach Vince Dooley, is definitively behind Sen. Ossoff, trailing 42-35 percent. On the Republican primary ballot test, Rep. Collins leads Rep. Carter and Mr. Dooley, 25-20-7%. The Georgia primary is May 19. A June 16 runoff is scheduled if no candidate receives majority support in the primary.
Iowa: As predicted, US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) is quickly becoming a consensus Republican US Senate candidate to replace retiring GOP Sen. Joni Ernst. President Donald Trump, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R), and the National Republican Senatorial Committee have all announced public endorsements. No new Democratic candidate has announced since Sen. Ernst made clear recently that she would not seek re-election.
Kentucky: A Public Opinion Strategies poll conducted for the Keep America Great Super PAC (9/2-4; 600 KY likely Republican primary voters; live interview), which supports US Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington), finds former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee David Cameron still leading the open Republican US Senate primary but with a lesser advantage. The POS ballot test finds Cameron topping Rep. Barr and businessman Nate Morris, 37-29-8%. Mr. Barr also has a substantial cash-on-hand advantage over Mr. Cameron according to the June 30 FEC quarterly financial disclosure reports. The COH category finds Rep. Barr with $6.1 million in his account compared to Mr. Cameron’s small $532,000.
Massachusetts: US Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Newton) announced that he will not challenge Sen. Ed Markey in next year’s Democratic primary, but Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) was more circumspect about the potential of him challenging the veteran Massachusetts politician. Mr. Moulton was quoted as saying his is “not not thinking” about a Senate run. Sen. Markey was first elected to the House in 1976, and to the Senate in a 2013 special election. He was elected to full terms in 2014 and 2020. In the latter election, he defeated then Rep. Joseph Kennedy, III, 55-45% in the Democratic primary.
New Hampshire: Republican former US Senator John E. Sununu, who is said to be seriously considering launching a comeback attempt for the position he lost in 2006, received favorable news from a newly released 1892 research firm survey. The poll (9/2-4; 500 NH likely general election voters; live interview) finds Mr. Sununu pulling to within a 45-43% ballot test margin against consensus Democratic Senate candidate, US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester). Should Mr. Sununu become the GOP nominee, this open race becomes competitive. In other polling, Rep. Pappas easily outdistances former Massachusetts US Sen. Scott Brown (R) and state Sen. Dan Innis (R-Bradford), the two announced GOP candidates.
North Carolina: An early September Change Research North Carolina survey finds Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper leading ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley 48-41% in the Tar Heel State’s open US Senate race. North Carolina campaigns are always close, so we can count on this contest going down to the election cycle’s final day. A Democratic victory here would give them a conversion win. Republican Senator Thom Tillis is not seeking re-election.
Texas: As expected, state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) announced that he will compete for the Democratic US Senate nomination. In the March 3 race, he will face 2024 Senate nominee and former Congressman Colin Allred. The Republicans have their own primary battle between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. Public Policy Polling completed a Democratic primary survey (9/3-4; 510 TX likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) and found Mr. Allred leading Rep. Talarico, 40-32%. Should no candidate in either party secure majority support in the early March 3 primary election, a runoff between the top two finishers will be conducted on May 26.
Ken Paxton faced string of political and personal challenges. First, the Texas Public Opinion Research firm released a survey (8/27-29; 320 likely GOP primary voters) that for the first time posts Sen. Cornyn leading, 32-26%. It also became public that Mr. Paxton is engaged in another extra-marital affair, this time with a mother of seven children. While both are in divorce proceedings now, the affair began when each were married to other individuals. The affair issue, with a different woman, dogged Mr. Paxton in the 2023 impeachment proceedings that ended with his acquittal in the state Senate.
U.S. House of Representatives
CA-04: Venture capitalist Eric Jones (D) announced that he will challenge US Rep. Mike Thompson (D-St. Helena/Napa) in another intra-party Democratic battle that features a younger challenger to an aging long-term incumbent. Rep. Thompson, who has averaged 69.4% of the vote over his 14 congressional elections, is again favored for re-election.
CA-07: Sacramento City Councilwoman Mai Vang announced her Democratic primary challenge to veteran US Rep. Doris Matsui (D-Sacramento). Also considering entering the race is Elk Grove Vice Mayor Sergio Robles. Rep. Matsui, who will be 82 years of age at the time of the next general election, says she is running for re-election. Ms. Matsui won a special election in 2005 after her husband, then-Rep. Bob Matsui (D), passed away. Together, the Matsui’s have held the downtown Sacramento seat since the beginning of 1979.
CA-32: Ex-congressional staff member Jake Rakov (D) announced he is ending his challenge to his former employer, US Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks). The Rakov exit leaves former Biden Administration official Jake Levine (D) as the Congressman’s main early challenger. Mr. Levine is the son of former US Rep. Mel Levine (D-CA). Rep. Sherman, first elected in 1996, will be favored for re-election.
CT-01: Veteran Rep. John Larson (D-Hartford), who had been the subject of retirement discussion, announced that he will seek re-election and face a very crowded Democratic primary. Previously announcing for the congressional race are former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest (D-West Hartford), Hartford School Board member Ruth Fortune, and Southington Town Councilman Jack Perry. Rep. Larson was first elected in 1998. He previously served in the state Senate from 1983 until taking the congressional seat at the beginning of 1999. This will be a very competitive primary election. The plurality primary is set for August 11.
CO-08: Former US Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D), who was defeated for re-election in 2024 but announced a 2026 comeback attempt, has dropped her bid. Reports became public that she attempted suicide last year and her campaign had failed to gel. We see nine Democrats still vying for the party nomination to challenge freshman Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton/Greeley) who holds what could be the most competitive seat in the country. The leading Democratic candidates appear to be state Reps. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) and Shannon Bird (D-Westminster) and State Treasurer Dave Young. The Colorado primary is scheduled for June 30.
IA-02: Former US Rep. Rod Blum (R) announced that he will make a comeback in 2026. With Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) running for Senate, the 2nd District becomes open. Mr. Blum served two terms in the House before losing to Democrat Abby Finkenauer in 2018. Ms. Hinson then unseated Finkenauer in 2020 and has held the seat since. State Sen. Charlie McClintock (R-Alburnett) and former state Sen. Joe Miller are also competing for the Republican nomination. The most prominent Democrat in what will be a competitive general election is state Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque).
IL-08: As expected, former US Rep. Melissa Bean (D) announced that she will launch a comeback attempt in the open 8th District, the seat from which she was defeated in 2010 after serving three terms. In a primary against nine Democratic opponents suggests her chances of winning with less than a majority are reasonable. The Illinois primary is scheduled for March 17, 2026. Incumbent US Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) is running for Senate.
ME-01: Four-term state Rep. Tiffany Roberts (D-South Berwick) confirms that she is exploring launching a Democratic primary challenge to US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland) in the heavily Democratic 1st Congressional District, which covers the southeastern portion of the state. Ms. Pingree, the former national president and CEO of Common Cause, was first elected to the House in 2008 and has had little trouble holding the seat ever since. Ms. Pingree’s daughter, Hannah Pingree, a former state House Speaker, is running for Governor.
NE-02: Veteran congressional staff member and Omaha native James Leuschen joined the Democratic field hoping to succeed retiring Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) in what appears to be one of the Democrats’ top conversion races in the country. Most believe the leading Democratic candidate, of the six announced contenders, is state Sen. John Cavanaugh, IV (D-Omaha), whose father served two terms in Congress. Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding and ex-state Senator Brett Lindstrom are the leading Republican candidates.
NY-12: Jack Schlossburg (D), grandson of the late President John F. Kennedy, is likely to enter the open 12th District race now that veteran US Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-New York City) is retiring. A very crowded Democratic primary is expected for the Midtown Manhattan open seat. Already announced are state Assemblyman Micah Lasher (D-New York City) and non-profit group founder Liam Elkind.
NV-03: Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) now sees the ninth Republican announce for the GOP nomination in what promises to be a competitive general election battle. Billionaire businessman Joshua Walters announced his candidacy and likely becomes the second self-funder. Music industry businessman Marty O’Donnell has already invested $3 million of his money into the campaign. In 2024, Rep. Lee defeated Republican Drew Johnson, now a candidate for State Treasurer, by a slight 51-49% margin.
PA-10: The chances of 2024 congressional nominee and former news anchor Janelle Stenson having a clear path to the ’26 Democratic nomination have apparently dissipated. Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas (D) announced his candidacy meaning we will see a competitive Democratic primary. In November, Ms. Stenson held seven-term Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/ Harrisburg) to a 51-49% re-election margin.
TX-08: Rep. Morgan Luttrell (R-Magnolia) announced that he will not seek a third term in 2026, saying he wants to return full-time to the Lone Star State. Including the new seats from the 2025 Texas redistricting map, six of the states 38 congressional seats will be open in the 2026 election. It appears that at least 11 of the 38 will see major competition in either the primary or general election.
TX-10: Veteran Lone Star State US Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Austin) announced he will not seek re-election next year. Mr. McCaul was first elected in 2004 and rose to chair both the House Homeland Security and Foreign Affairs Committees. He was term-limited from the latter position at the beginning of this Congress. The 10th CD stretches from Austin east to the area south of Waco and north of the Houston metropolitan area. The 10th District is safely Republican. We can expect a crowded GOP primary in this seat.
TX-23: Susan Storey Rubio, a prominent west Texas rancher who had earlier announced a Republican primary challenge to US Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio), is ending her political effort. Under the new Texas redistricting map, Ms. Rubio is no longer a resident of the 23rd CD, so she has decided to cease campaigning.
TX-33: Should the new Texas map withstand the legal challenges, the political situation is beginning to resolve itself for the new Dallas County 33rd Congressional District. Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch/Dallas), whose 32nd CD is now mostly in East Texas, says she will run in District 33. The current incumbent, Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth), with the base of his support no longer in TX-33, indicates he is instead exploring a run for Tarrant County Judge (Executive). The new 33rd is safely Democratic, so the party primary will determine the next congressional member.
VA-11: As expected, Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D) easily defeated Republican former FBI agent Stewart Whitson, 75-25%, to win the special congressional election. Mr. Walkinshaw will replace the late US Rep. Gerry Connolly (D), who passed away in May. The Representative-Elect will serve the balance of the current term and be favored to win again in the 2026 regular election. Upon Walkinshaw being sworn into the House, the partisan division will move to 219R-213D, with three vacancies. The next special election will be held on September 23 in Arizona’s 7th CD where former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D) is favored to win the seat of her late father, Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson), who passed away in March.
Redistricting
Indiana: Indiana Gov. Mike Braun is optimistic that the legislature will redraw the Hoosier State congressional map in November. He is looking to add issues to the agenda before calling the legislature into special session. Republicans could gain as many as two seats. The White House has been pressuring the state legislative leaders to draw a new map, but they have been reluctant. Gov. Braun is in favor of redistricting. There is talk of drawing a 9R-0D map, which would endanger Reps. Frank Mrvan (D-Highland/Gary) and Andre Carson (D-Indianapolis).
Kansas: Redistricting discussions are underway in Kansas, and there is talk that the legislature could move toward a special session. Since it is clear that Gov. Laura Kelly (D) will not call the legislature back, 2/3 of members from both houses must support the move for a special session. Should a session be called and a map introduced, Republicans would realistically need 2/3 support for a bill in both houses because Democratic Gov. Kelly is sure to veto what the legislature produces. Seeing a new Kansas plan being enacted is a long shot.
Missouri: In the redistricting wars, the Missouri legislature passed a map which Gov. Mike Kehoe then signed. The new plan will likely yield the Republicans a gain of one seat. The endangered Democratic US Representative is Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City). Defeating Rep. Cleaver would give the Republicans a 7R-1D advantage in the Missouri delegation.
Utah: The Utah State Supreme Court upheld a lower court ruling ordering the Beehive State map redrawn. The court ruled that the legislature ignored redistricting criteria that voters approved in a previous ballot initiative. The decision will lead to a different Salt Lake City district that should give the Democrats a one seat gain. If such is the ultimate result, the new Utah congressional delegation will likely move to 3R-1D.
Governorships
Alaska: As expected, former Attorney General Treg Taylor (R), who was appointed to his position in the Alaska governmental system, announced that he will enter the open Governor’s race next year. US Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R), again confirmed that she “isn’t ruling out” running for Governor, and says she has the “luxury” of waiting months to decide. Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. The Alaska primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. Republicans are expecting a crowded and competitive field. Democratic former state Senator Tom Begich is an announced candidate but says he will withdraw if former US Rep. Mary Peltola (D) decides to run for Governor.
Colorado: State Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer (R-Weld County), who lost a close congressional bid in 2022, announced that she will enter the open Governor’s race next year. A large Republican field has formed including former Congressman Greg Lopez, state Sen. Mark Baisley (R-Salina) and state Rep. Scott Bottoms (R-Colorado Springs). Democratic US Senator Michael Bennet and Attorney General Phil Weiser are competing for the party’s gubernatorial nomination. Sen. Bennet is favored for the nomination and the general election. Gov. Jared Polis (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Florida: US Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) continues to build a strong gubernatorial campaign. A new survey finds the Congressman leading 40-2-2% over former state House Speaker Paul Renner and newly appointed Lt. Governor Jay Collins. This, from a Tyson Group Republican primary poll (for the American Promise organization; 9/4-5; 800 FL likely Republican primary voters). Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Georgia: We see two new gubernatorial entries. As expected, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger announced for the Republican nomination while former GOP Lt. Governor Geoff Duncan also entered the Governor’s race, but did so as a Democrat. The Republican primary is comprised of Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, Attorney General Chris Carr, and now Mr. Raffensperger. The Democratic side now features Mr. Duncan, state Representative Derrick Jackson (D-Tyrone), former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, ex-state Senator Jason Esteves, and former DeKalb County CEO Mike Thurmond. Gov. Brian Kemp (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Minnesota: Minnesota chief executive Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, announced that he will seek a third term as Governor. If successful next year, he will become the first Minnesota Governor to ever win three four-year terms. The likely Republican nominee is former state Senator and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Scott Jensen. In the previous election, Gov. Walz defeated Mr. Jensen 52-45%.
New Jersey: In the New Jersey Governor’s campaign, a new Quinnipiac University survey (9/9-11; 1,238 NJ likely voters; live interview) again posts Democratic US Representative Mikie Sherrill ahead of Republican Jack Ciattarelli in their 2025 statewide open battle. This poll’s margin is 49-41%. Mr. Ciattarelli has a history of under-polling, so the contest may in reality be a bit closer. The New Jersey general election is scheduled for November 4. Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
New York: A new Siena College poll (9/8-10; 802 NY registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) provides Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) with her best ballot test results of the year. According to Siena, the Governor would lead US Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) by a whopping 52-27% spread. The previous Siena poll (August) found a 45-31% split. Rep. Stefanik has still not announced a gubernatorial bid, and polling data such as this might suggest that she changes her mind about running.
Rhode Island: Businesswoman and 2022 Democratic gubernatorial candidate Helen Foulkes announced that she will return for a 2026 re-match with Gov. Dan McKee (D). Rhode Island will again host a competitive Democratic primary. In 2022, Gov. McKee, who ascended to the office from his position as Lt. Governor when then-Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) resigned to become US Commerce Secretary in the Biden Administration, won the party primary with only a 32.8 – 29.9% margin over Ms. Foulkes. The latter is the former CEO of Hudson’s Bay Company and the niece of former Connecticut US Senator Christopher Dodd (D).
Texas: Andrew White (D), the son of the late Texas Gov. Mark White (D) and 2018 gubernatorial candidate, announced he will again compete for the state’s top job next year. In the 2018 campaign, Mr. White lost the Democratic runoff to Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez. Gov. Greg Abbott (R), then running for a second term, defeated Ms. Valdez, 56-43%. The Governor is an announced candidate for a fourth term next year.
Wisconsin: Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (D) announced his gubernatorial candidacy, hoping to succeed retiring Gov. Tony Evers (D). Also in the Democratic primary is Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez. Republicans see Washington County Executive Josh Shoemann and manufacturing company CEO Bill Berrien as announced candidates. US Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) says he will decide whether to become a gubernatorial candidate by the end of September.
State and Local
Boston: Emerson College released a survey of the Boston Mayor’s race, which gives incumbent Michelle Wu (D) a very large lead over her main opponent, businessman Josh Kraft (D) son of New England Patriots’ owner Robert Kraft, after she placed first in the primary election. According to the EC poll (9/2-3; 555 Boston registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) Mayor Wu is staked to a whopping 72-22% lead over Mr. Kraft. The two advanced into the general election in the September 9 primary. In that vote, Mayor Wu received 72% as compared to Mr. Kraft’s 23% as the second place finisher, just as the poll result reflected.
Charlotte: Mayor Vi Lyles (D), on the ballot for a fifth two-year term in North Carolina’s largest city, easily won her Democratic primary with 71% of the vote on September 9. She will be favored in the general election.
