October 7, 2025
U.S. Senate
Alabama: A former White House aide and ex-military advisor to Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) has entered the state’s open Senate race. Morgan Murphy now joins Attorney General Steve Marshall and U.S. Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) in vying for the Republican nomination. The eventual winner is a virtual sure bet to replace Sen. Tuberville, who is running for Governor instead of seeking re-election. Additionally, recently retired Auburn University men’s basketball coach Bruce Pearl ended speculation that he would run for the Senate with an announcement of non-candidacy.
College sports analyst and national commentator Paul Finebaum is also indicating interest in launching a U.S. Senate bid for Sen. Tuberville’s open seat. Upon entering the race, Mr. Finebaum would join Murphy, Marshall, and Moore in the Republican primary. The seat is expected to remain in Republican hands, meaning the GOP nomination process will determine Sen. Tuberville’s replacement. For his part, the Senator is eschewing re-election to run in the open Governor’s race, where he is viewed as the favorite to succeed term-limited incumbent Kay Ivey (R).
Illinois: A Public Policy Polling survey (9/25-26; 576 IL likely Democratic primary voters; text and live interview) from Lt. Governor Juliana Stratton’s (D) U.S. Senate campaign finds that U.S. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) continues to lead the race. In this poll, Mr. Krishnamoorthi holds a 33-18-8% advantage over Ms. Stratton and U.S. Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), respectively. The Stratton campaign released what should be viewed as an unfavorable result for its candidate but stresses a path to victory for the Lt. Governor still exists because of the large undecided contingent. Rep. Krishnamoorthi, who also has a large resource advantage, remains the favorite for the party nomination and to succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D) in the general election.
Kansas: The Republicans in the Kansas legislature are determining if they will call for a special legislative session to redraw the state’s congressional map. The Republicans have a veto-proof majority in both chambers, so they would theoretically be able to override Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s veto regarding map passage. A two-thirds vote of both houses is also required to call a special session. The GOP has the numbers, but their margin is very tight. Therefore, the situation is uncertain. If the Republicans’ redistricting plan is successful and the lone Kansas Democratic U.S. House member, U.S. Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park), is targeted and her 3rd CD made unwinnable for her party, the Congresswoman will forgo re-election and instead challenge Sen. Roger Marshall (R) next year.
Massachusetts: U.S. Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Newton) said he would not challenge Sen. Ed Markey (D) for renomination, but the door has apparently opened for two other House delegation members to potentially launch such a challenge. Both Reps. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) and Ayanna Pressley (D-Boston) each said they are now considering forging a Democratic primary against the Senator. Much time remains because Massachusetts has one of the latest primaries in the nation. In 2026, the MA primary vote is scheduled for September 15.
New Hampshire: A new co/efficient survey (Sept. 10–12; 904 likely general election voters; 346 likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) indicates that former U.S. Senator John E. Sununu (R) entering the open New Hampshire Senate race would make the general election highly competitive. The ballot test finds U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas (D–Manchester) leading Sununu 46–43 percent, a virtual tie. In the Republican primary, Sununu holds a 40–23 percent advantage over former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown. Sununu, who served three terms in the U.S. House before winning a Senate seat in 2002, defeated then–Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D) to claim the post. Six years later, Shaheen returned for a rematch and unseated him during the 2008 Obama wave. She went on to win two additional terms and will retire at the end of the current Congress. Sununu has not been on the ballot since his 2008 defeat.
The University of New Hampshire’s latest Granite State Poll (Sept. 17–23; 1,361 adults; 1,235 likely general election voters; 529 likely Republican primary voters; online) provides further evidence of a tightening race. The survey shows Pappas leading Sununu 49–43 percent, but the sample leans more Democratic than the state’s actual voting history suggests — implying the contest could be closer than the topline numbers indicate. Though Sununu has not yet formally announced his 2026 candidacy, all signs point toward an entry. He remains the clear favorite for the Republican nomination, positioned ahead of Scott Brown and expected to mount a formidable general election challenge in this open-seat race.
Pennsylvania: The new Quinnipiac Pennsylvania statewide survey found an unusual response regarding Sen. John Fetterman’s (D) job approval rating. The poll (9/25-29; 1,579 PA registered voters; live interview) reveals a 46:38% positive ratio, but who favors and disfavors him cuts against the political grain. Among his fellow Democrats, Sen. Fetterman’s standing is upside-down with a poor 33:54% negative ratio. Yet, among Republicans, the Senator posts strongly positive numbers, 62:21%. Among Independents, Sen. Fetterman sees an equal share (43%) approving and disapproving of his performance in office.
Texas: The Senate Republican leadership continues in their efforts to convince U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) to stay out of the U.S. Senate Republican primary. A Super PAC supporting Rep. Hunt has been spending heavily in running ads around the state promoting the Houston Congressman. The Senate Leadership Fund contracted a poll to help convince Rep. Hunt to run for re-election instead of the Senate. According to the Ragnar Research survey (9/20-22; 760 TX likely Republican primary voters; live interview), Sen. John Cornyn (R) and state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) are tied at 39% apiece on the ballot test.
This tally is a major improvement for Sen. Cornyn who was trailing badly in early polling. If Rep Hunt is added to the ballot test, the result breaks 32-32-17% for Cornyn, Paxton, and Hunt in that order. The result of the Congressman entering appears to be forcing Cornyn and Paxton into a runoff, with Mr. Hunt on the political sidelines. The Texas primary is scheduled for March 3, with a runoff date of May 26 if no candidate receives majority support in the initial vote.
Virginia: Sen. Mark Warner (D) has drawn a Republican opponent. While talk about Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) challenging the Senator has dissipated, state Sen. Bryce Reeves (R-Fredericksburg) has now become an official candidate. The state legislator has twice run for a different office, Lt. Governor and the U.S. House, but failed both times to secure the party nomination. Sen. Warner will be favored to win a fourth term next year.
U.S. House of Representatives
AZ-07: As expected, former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D) easily won the U.S. House special election in Arizona’s Tucson anchored 7th District and will succeed her late father in Congress. Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) passed away in March. When Ms. Grijalva is sworn into the House, the partisan division will change to 219R – 214D. The two remaining U.S. House special elections are in Tennessee (7th District; October 7 special primary; December 2 special general) and Texas (18th District; November 4 jungle election; Gov. Greg Abbott (R) schedules the special runoff between the top two finishers if no one receives majority support after the official count projects the need for a secondary election). Republicans are favored to hold in Tennessee, and Democrats in Texas.
FL-19: In perhaps the strangest 2026 congressional race to date, former one-term North Carolina Congressman Madison Cawthorn (R) announced that he would enter the open seat race to replace Florida U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) who is running for Governor. The race is strange because the candidate field features now three contenders who were elected officials in other states. In addition to North Carolina’s Cawthorn, former New York Congressman Chris Collins and ex-Illinois state Senator Jim Oberweis are among the candidates competing for the southwest Florida seat. The eventual Republican nominee becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the general election.
HI-01: State Rep. Della Au Belatti (D-Makiki) joined state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole (D-Honolulu) as announced Democratic primary challenger candidates to Hawaii U.S. Rep. Ed Case (D-Kaneohe). Certainly, this race appears competitive with a pair of elected officials challenging the Congressman, but having two opponents actually favors the incumbent because the anti-Case vote would be split between the two contenders. In a plurality system without a runoff election, a multi-candidate typically helps the incumbent.
MO-04 or 05: Because of the changing Kansas City congressional political landscape, the municipality’s current Mayor, Quinton Lucas (D), is indicating that he would consider running for Congress. While both the new 4th and 5th CDs are heavily Republican, Mayor Lucas would give the Democrats a viable standard bearer in one of the seats if he were to become a congressional contender.
NH-01 or 02: The aforementioned University of New Hampshire poll (see New Hampshire Senate above) also tested the open 1st CD and 2nd District that freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) will defend. According to the ballot tests, former Portsmouth City Councilwoman Stefany Shaheen, daughter of retiring U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D), opens with a Democratic primary lead of 29-8% over her closest 1st District competitor, former Biden Administration official Maura Sullivan. In District 2, the state’s western CD which is likely to feature a general election rematch between Rep. Goodlander and Republican Lily Tang Williams, the incumbent would lead 51-39%. In the 2024 general election, Ms. Goodlander defeated Ms. Williams, 51-45%.
TX-29: Former Houston City Councilman Jarvis Johnson (D) said publicly that he is considering challenging U.S. Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) in the new version of the 29th District. Only 37% of the current 29th is in the new 29th, so Rep. Garcia’s incumbency factor would be lessened in such a Democratic primary race. The Houston anchored seat is still solidly Democratic, so the serious action will occur in the March 3 primary.
TX-32: Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson, who in 2023 left the Democratic Party and became a Republican, confirmed he is considering entering the newly created 32nd Congressional District that covers part of Dallas before stretching into east Texas. Current incumbent Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) is most likely to seek re-election in the Democratic 33rd CD as opposed to what will become a Republican 32nd District. Before winning election as Mayor, Mr. Johnson served four terms in the state House of Representatives as a Democrat. He is ineligible to seek a third term as Mayor in 2027.
Redistricting
Missouri: Gov. Mike Kehoe (R) signed the state legislature’s new congressional redistricting bill into law. Legal challenges will follow, but assuming the new map stands, it is likely to produce a net one-seat Republican gain. U.S. Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D) Kansas City district is split three ways, thus making his re-election much more difficult and could mean retirement for the 80-year old 11-term Congressman and former Kansas City Mayor.
Governorships
Arizona: Eight-term Arizona Republican Congressman David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/ Scottsdale) announced that he will enter the competitive Republican primary for Governor. While Rep. Schweikert would have faced another difficult re-election campaign for the House, his path toward the Republican gubernatorial nomination is also far from secure. Already running for months are fellow U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) and 2022 statewide candidate Karrin Taylor Robson.
A recent Pulse Decision Science survey (9/8-10; 502 AZ likely Republican primary voters; live interview) finds Rep. Biggs opening a large GOP primary lead. According to the Pulse ballot test, the Congressman would lead Ms. Robson 55-31%. The poll was taken just after Rep. Schweikert initially said he was considering entering the race. Adding him to the gubernatorial ballot test question found Schweikert trailing badly with only 11% support. The eventual Republican nominee after the August 4, 2026, primary election will face incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). Polling is already forecasting a close race irrespective of who becomes the ultimate GOP challenger.
California: A surprising Emerson College poll (Sept. 15–16; 1,000 registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) brought unwelcome news for Sen. Alex Padilla (D), who is reportedly weighing entry into the state’s open gubernatorial race. The survey again finds former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter (D) leading the jungle primary field with 16 percent, followed by two Republicans combining for 18 percent: former Fox News host Steve Hilton (10%) and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (8%). Sen. Padilla registers only 7 percent, a surprisingly low showing for a sitting U.S. Senator.
Another entrant emerged as former state Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon (D) announced his candidacy, calling for “a new generation of leadership.” Calderon, 40, served four terms in the Assembly and comes from a well-known political family. His father, Charles Calderon (D), previously served in both chambers and was elected Majority Leader in each. Additionally, State Senate President Toni Atkins (D, San Diego) ended her gubernatorial bid. Despite raising more than 4 million dollars, she cited the difficulty of breaking through a crowded bipartisan field to claim one of the top two positions in the upcoming general election.
At present, 71 individuals have announced campaigns for the open governorship, including Porter, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D), ex-U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary and past California Attorney General Xavier Becerra (D), former state Controller Betty Yee (D), Hilton, and Bianco. It remains to be seen how many of these declared candidates will formally file by the March 11, 2026, deadline ahead of the June 2, 2026, jungle primary election.
Connecticut: Westport Mayor Jen Tooker (R) ended her gubernatorial bid but is reportedly open to considering entering another statewide race. The principal Republican gubernatorial candidates are state Sen. Ryan Fazio (R-Greenwich) and former New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart. Gov. Ned Lamont (D) is expected to run for a third term but has so far not yet made public his political plans. State Rep. Josh Elliott (D-Hamden) is an announced Democratic gubernatorial candidate. It is unclear if Mr. Elliott will remain in the race should Gov. Lamont seek a third term.
Georgia: State Rep. Ruwa Romman (D-Peachtree Corners) joined the Democratic primary for Governor. Born in Jordan, Rep. Romman is the first Muslim female elected to the Georgia legislature. Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms released an internal Public Policy Polling survey (9/15-16; 620 GA likely Democratic primary voters; text and live interview) that finds her leading the Democratic primary race with a 38-12-9% margin over former DeKalb County Chief Executive Michael Thurmond and ex-Republican Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan. All other candidates drew less than 5% support.
Minnesota: While Gov. Tim Walz (D) is now officially running for a third term, a new poll suggests he is in a battle for re-election. SurveyUSA, polling for Twin Cities television station KSTP (9/15-18; 568 MN likely voters) finds former state Senator and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Scott Jensen (R) trailing Gov. Walz by only a 46-41% margin. The poll results also found Gov. Walz with a 47:47% job approval rating that features only 20% strongly approving and 34% strongly disapproving. The Governor and former Vice-Presidential nominee also fares poorly in southern Minnesota, a region he represented in the U.S. House, and with Independents. Thus, the early polling suggests the 2026 Minnesota Governor’s race will be in the competitive realm.
New Jersey: Defying the consistent trend showing U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) leading 2021 gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli (R), two new surveys revealed a shift in momentum. According to the Ciattarelli campaign’s internal National Research poll (Sept. 16–18; 600 likely general election voters), the Republican held a slight 46–45 percent edge over Ms. Sherrill. Earlier in the month, a separate National Research survey (Sept. 8–10; 600 likely voters) showed Mr. Ciattarelli trailing narrowly 47–45 percent.
A subsequent Emerson College poll (Sept. 22–23; 935 very and somewhat likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) confirmed the tightening race, finding the two candidates tied at 43 percent. The data suggest that the contest is narrowing as the November 4 general election approaches. Ciattarelli, who won this year’s Republican primary with 68 percent, has historically outperformed his polling, as previous research showed him running below his eventual vote total.
The latest Save New Jersey poll (Valcour; Sept. 23–24; 1,274 likely general election voters; online) now places Rep. Sherrill slightly ahead 47–45 percent, though Mr. Ciattarelli is viewed as stronger on all major issues except education. A Fox News poll (Sept. 25–28; 822 likely voters) reported a 50–42 percent Sherrill advantage, while a Quantus Insights survey (Sept. 29–30; 900 likely voters) produced results nearly identical to Valcour’s, showing Ms. Sherrill leading 48–46 percent. Together, the latest data confirm a tightening and highly competitive New Jersey gubernatorial contest that both parties are watching closely as the campaign enters its final month.
Oklahoma: State Superintendent of Public Instruction Ryan Walters (R), who has had a controversial tenure but is a champion of the Republican Party’s right flank, announced his resignation to accept a job running a non-profit education organization. He was considered a potential gubernatorial candidate. The move is a boon to Attorney General Gentner Drummond who appears to be the leading GOP candidate for the party nomination. Becoming the Republican standard bearer is tantamount to winning the general election. Incumbent Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Pennsylvania: Quinnipiac University released a survey of the Pennsylvania Governor’s race that puts incumbent Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) in strong position. The poll (9/25-29; 1,579 PA registered voters; live interview), finds the Governor enjoying a 60% job approval rating and leading party endorsed Republican candidate Stacey Garrity, Pennsylvania’s State Treasurer, by a 55-39% count. Should state Senator and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano (R-Gettysburg) again become the GOP nominee, Gov. Shapiro would lead him by an almost identical 56-39%.
Virginia: A series of three September polls all find former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) leading Republican Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears by spreads beyond the polling margin of error. Pulse Decision Science (9/3-5; 512 VA likely voters) posts Ms. Spanberger to a 48-43% edge. Christopher Newport University (9/8-14; 808 VA registered voters) sees the Spanberger lead larger at 52-40%. Finally, in the most recently released survey, co/efficient (9/22-23; 1,024 VA likely voters) finds a result closer to the Pulse Decision study, 49-43%, also in Spanberger’s favor. From the three data organizations that track and average poll results, Real Clear Politics, Decision Desk HQ, and Race to the White House, all see Spanberger leading in an average range falling between 7.3 percentage points (Real Clear Politics) and 9.4 (Race to the White House). The Virginia election is November 4, so political prime time is now fully underway.
Wisconsin: U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) announced that he will leave the congressional seat he first won in a 2020 special election to enter Wisconsin’s open gubernatorial race. The move had been widely expected, and Rep. Tiffany is viewed as the early favorite in the Republican primary. His strong conservative record positions him well to attract support from right-of-center political organizations that have played key roles in past GOP primaries. Former manufacturing company CEO Bill Berrien, who had entered the Republican race, dropped his bid after revelations that he had linked to X-rated websites, prompting a barrage of hypocrisy charges. Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann (R) remains in the race, but Rep. Tiffany now stands as the clear frontrunner for the GOP nomination.
On the Democratic side, several candidates have announced, including Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, state Sen. Kelda Roys (D-Madison), state Rep. Francesca Hong (D-Madison), Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, and Missy Hughes, Director of Gov. Tony Evers’ (D) Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation. Gov. Evers is not seeking a third term, setting up what is expected to be a highly competitive open-seat election. Observers anticipate a true toss-up general election as both parties prepare for a closely fought statewide contest.
State and Local
Boston: After suffering a better than 3:1 negative showing in the September jungle primary, businessman Josh Kraft (D), son of New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, has withdrawn from the November 4 Mayoral general election. This means that Mayor Michelle Wu (D) has won a second term in that she is now unopposed in the regular election.
