November 5, 2025
U.S. Senate
Florida: A University of North Florida statewide poll gives us the first glimpse as to how appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R) would fare in a general election. The survey (10/15-25; 728 FL likely 2026 general election voters; live interview) finds Sen. Moody comfortably ahead of former Brevard County School Board member Jennifer Jenkins by a 49-38% clip as the registration figures between Republicans and Democrats continues to widen. The Senate special election candidates are vying for the right to serve the final two years of the current term. The 2026 winner will then be eligible to run for a full six-year stint in 2028.
Louisiana: State Rep. Julie Emerson (R-Carencro) filed documents with the Federal Election Commission this week to establish a U.S. Senate campaign committee. She would join a field of candidates that includes State Treasurer and former Congressman and Deputy White House chief of staff John Fleming, state Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia), and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta. JMC Analytics, polling for the Fleming campaign, released their statewide survey (10/15-17; 610 LA likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) and found, as expected, that Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) is in trouble in the new Republican primary. Louisiana changed their election system, returning to the partisan primary structure for federal races as opposed to the jungle primary. The ballot test sees Mr. Fleming leading Sen. Cassidy, 25-23%, with, according to the JMC analysis, the remaining candidates dividing 17% of the preference vote.
Maine: A just released University of New Hampshire’s Pine Tree State Poll (10/16-21; 1,094 ME residents; 1,015 ME likely voters; 510 ME likely Democratic primary voters; online) delivers some unexpected ballot test results in the Maine Senate race. The most notable surprise is how badly Gov. Janet Mills fares in a Democratic gubernatorial primary. Gov. Mills recently announced for Senate after being the top recruit prospect for the national Democratic leadership. Yet, in this UNH poll, she trails businessman Graham Platner by a whopping 58-24% clip. Mr. Platner is the choice of the party’s Bernie Sanders wing and carries the Vermont Senator’s endorsement. The poll was conducted, however, before damaging information came to light against Mr. Platner including the presence of a swastika tattoo on his chest, and past disparaging remarks made about key Democratic constituencies. Chances are good that the next released Maine survey will show Mr. Platner substantially falling.
New Hampshire: Former U.S. Senator John E. Sununu (R), son of former Governor and White House chief of staff John Sununu and brother of ex-Gov. Chris Sununu (R), announced that he will enter the open 2026 U.S. Senate race. Mr. Sununu served one term in the Senate from 2003-2009, losing his seat to the current retiring incumbent Jeanne Shaheen (D). In 2002, Mr. Sununu, then a three-term U.S. Representative, defeated Ms. Shaheen for the Senate seat while she was the state’s sitting Governor. The Sununu entry puts the open seat in play for the Republicans. The consensus Democratic candidate is U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester), and polling suggests a toss-up contest could unfold. Former Massachusetts Senator and 2014 New Hampshire U.S. Senate nominee Scott Brown, who lost to Sen. Shaheen, is an active candidate. He, however, fares poorly against Rep. Pappas in early race polling. It remains to be seen if Mr. Brown remains in the race.
Ohio: Bowling State University sponsored a YouGov survey (10/2-14; 800 OH registered voters; online) of Ohio voters and found former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) and appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) in a virtual deadlock. The actual ballot test number favored Mr. Brown, 49-48%. Expect to see polling such as this throughout the race. Typically, Republicans poll close or behind in Ohio campaigns until the election cycle’s final two weeks at which point they pull away from the respective Democratic opponent and win comfortably.
U.S. House of Representatives
AK-AL: Democratic Pastor Matt Schultz, who hosts a podcast that the Anchorage Daily News describes as “how progressive clergy can serve their community,” announced that he will challenge freshman at-large U.S. Rep. Nick Begich, III (R-Chugiak) next year. Though Republicans win most elections in Alaska, polling always produces tight ballot tests, so expect to see the results data reflecting a competitive contest until after the August 2026 state primary.
AZ-06: Public Policy Polling tested the politically marginal 6th congressional district of Arizona (10/14-15; 581 AZ-6 registered voters; text & live interview) and not surprisingly found U.S. Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) and retired military veteran JoAnn Mendoza (D) locked in a dead heat. The ballot test gives Ms. Mendoza a tight 42-41% edge. Such a margin is nothing new for this district. Mr. Ciscomani twice defeated former state Senator Kirsten Engel (D) by very close margins. Expect another highly competitive campaign to develop here for the 2026 election.
CA-11: Three-term state Senator Scott Weiner (D-San Francisco) says he too will join the race to unseat former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi who can be described as a national Democratic political icon. Mr. Weiner, who was elected to the San Francisco City and County consolidated Board of Supervisors in 2010, ran for and was elected to the state Senate in 2016. While Sen. Weiner can remain in his present position through 2028, he no longer is eligible to seek re-election; therefore, his political situation instills greater impetus to become a congressional candidate. Also in the race is former Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez campaign manager Saikat Chakrabarti (D).
While both are serious challengers, Rep. Pelosi, who has dominated San Francisco politics for four decades, still would be favored to win a 21st term. Despite the former Speaker’s stature, developments in this jungle primary situation merit monitoring. The California jungle primary is scheduled for June 2, but the real action will likely occur before the state’s candidate filing deadline on March 6. Rep. Pelosi says she will decide about seeking re-election in 2026 after the results of the redistricting referendum are known on November 4.
IN-01: In anticipation of the state legislative special session producing a more favorable Republican redistricted 1st CD, 2022 Republican congressional nominee Jennifer-Ruth Green (R), a retired Air Force officer who held U.S. Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-Highland/Gary) to a 53-47% re-election victory, announced that she will return for another campaign next year. If the legislature draws a new map, it remains to be seen how the 1st district will be affected, but the likelihood that this seat becomes the Republicans’ top Indiana conversion target is very high.
KY-04: Adhering to President Donald Trump’s strong suggestion and promised endorsement, retired Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein announced that he will challenge seven-term U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Garrison/Covington) in the 4th district Republican primary. Rep. Massie has made himself President Trump’s top GOP nemesis in the House by consistently opposing Republican budget and funding bills. Rep. Massie’s fiscal stands are popular in the district, however, and he already has over $2 million in his campaign account. Therefore, even with President Trump’s endorsement, challenging Rep. Massie will be no easy task for Mr. Gallrein.
NY-10: It appears that freshman New York U.S. Rep. Dan Goldman (D-Manhattan) will face a serious renomination primary next June. New York City Comptroller, Brad Lander, a defeated mayoral candidate but now supporter of Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani’s (D-Astoria) mayoral campaign, says he will enter the 2026 congressional race against Rep. Goldman. Also in the Democratic contest is likely to be New York City Councilwoman Alexa Aviles and possibly former state Assemblywoman and ex-congressional candidate Yuh-Line Niou. If all of the potential challengers enter the campaign, Rep. Goldman’s chances would be enhanced since the anti-incumbent vote would be split multiple ways in a plurality election format.
PA-01: A new Public Policy Polling survey (10/10-11; 555 PA-1 likely general election voters; text & live interview) finds Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie (D) and five-term U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) locked in a dead heat at 41-41% in one of three districts a Republican House candidate carried even with Kamala Harris outpolling President Donald Trump. Campaign finance is another story, however. The latest Federal Election Commission disclosure reports shows Rep. Fitzpatrick holding a $6.9 million to $232,000 cash-on-hand advantage. Regardless of the financial situation, the 2026 1st district campaign will become highly competitive.
SD-AL: The Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey (for South Dakota NewsWatch and the University of South Dakota; 10/16-20; 502 SD likely Republican primary voters; live interview) used to test the Governor’s race (see Governor section below) also queried the open at-large congressional race. There, as expected, Attorney General Marty Jackley (R) has jumped out to a commanding Republican primary lead. According to M-D, the Jackley lead is 57-5% over state Sen. Casey Crabtree (R-Madison). Incumbent at-large US Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) is running for Governor.
TN-07: A new Workbench Strategy poll from the Aftyn Behn (D) campaign (10/15-19; 400 TN-7 likely special election voters with a 100-person Democratic over-sample; multiple sampling techniques) finds former state cabinet official Matt Van Epps (R) leading Ms. Behn, a state Representative from Nashville, 52-44%, for the coming December 2 special election to replace resigned U.S. Rep. Mark Green (R). The margin is likely greater. Considering the Democratic over-sample and the push questions used, the Dem support number here is likely inflated. The 7th is a reliable Republican district. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 55.1R – 42.1D partisan lean. President Donald Trump carried the seat with a 60.4 – 38.1% margin last November and Rep. Green secured a 59.5 – 38.0% fourth election victory.
TX-18: The University of Houston released their sponsored YouGov poll of the 18th congressional district special election to be held November 4. This jungle primary is the first electoral step toward replacing the late U.S. Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston). The YouGov poll (10/7-11; 1,200 likely special election voters; online) finds Harris County attorney Christian Menefee (D) leading former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D) and state Representative Jolanda Jones (D-Houston) 27-23-15%. The results virtually guarantee we will see a runoff election. Under Texas election procedure, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will schedule the runoff once it becomes official that no candidate received majority support.
TX-32: While there has been speculation as to what Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson will do next since he left the Democratic Party to become a Republican, things became clearer this week. Mayor Johnson says he is not planning to run for any office in 2026, including the new TX-32 congressional seat. The mayor says he plans on concentrating on his current job. He is ineligible to seek a third term as mayor when his current tenure expires in 2027. Prior to winning his current post, Mr. Johnson was elected six times as a Democratic member of the Texas House of Representatives.
WI-03: Public Policy Polling also tested the competitive 3rd congressional district of Wisconsin (10/14-15; 581 WI-3 registered voters; text & live interview) and found that the rematch between U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) and businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D) will once again end in a very tight finish. The initial ballot test finds Ms. Cooke leading the two-term incumbent by a slight 44-42% margin. Expect this race to be rated as a toss-up all the way through the 2026 campaign cycle.
Redistricting
Louisiana: As the redistricting world awaits the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case, the Bayou State’s governor and legislature passed legislation to move the state’s primary in anticipation of a ruling coming well after the first of next year. The legislation passed earlier this week, and now on its way to Gov. Jeff Landry for his signature, would move the initial primary date to May 16 with the associated runoff election on June 27. Changing the primary will give the state more time to adjust their congressional map to adhere to whatever the Supreme Court eventually decides.
Maryland: It appears the Maryland legislature will not engage in another redistricting. According to a report from The Down Ballot political blog, state Senate President Bill Ferguson (D-Baltimore) sent a letter to his colleagues saying that the Senate leadership “is choosing not to move forward with mid-cycle congressional redistricting.” Basically, the Senate President explained that he is not going to risk a legal challenge to their 7D-1R map for an uncertain attempt to add one more seat to the Democratic column.
North Carolina: The North Carolina legislature this week enacted a new congressional map. Under North Carolina law, the governor has no role in redistricting so the legislature can act independently. The new map turns district 1 from a lean Democratic seat for Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) into a likely Republican CD. Already in the race for the Republicans are Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson and state Sen. Bobby Hanig (R-Currituck). The 1st district now becomes a top tier Republican conversion race.
Ohio: The Ohio elected official redistricting commission agreed on a new compromise congressional map that weakens slightly the two major Republican targets, the seats of Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) and Emilia Sykes (D-Akron), while still keeping the districts politically competitive. The bipartisan commission majority wants to craft a map that can pass the legislature with such a strong majority that it will remain in place for the decade’s final three elections. The plan now moves to the legislature for approval. Gov. Mike DeWine (R) retains his veto power over the legislative process.
Governorships
Florida: St. Pete Polls tested the Florida Republican electorate (10/13-15; 1,034 FL likely Republican primary voters; online) and finds U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) posting a commanding 39-4-3% over Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and former state House Speaker Paul Renner. In an isolated question involving First Lady Casey DeSantis, who is not a gubernatorial candidate and unlikely to run, Rep. Donalds would lead 47-21%.
Michigan: We are seeing the beginning of a tight three-way 2026 Governor’s race. Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, who is running statewide as an Independent, released the results of his internal Schoen Cooperman Research poll (10/9-14; 600 MI likely voters) during the week. According to the survey results, Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson leads Republican Congressman John James and Mr. Duggan by a slight 30-29-26% margin. The chances of these three advancing to the general election are high, and this survey suggests that any one of them can win.
New Jersey: The odd-numbered election year governor’s race in the Garden State produced one of the most surprising outcomes of the cycle, as U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D–Montclair) scored what will likely be a 56–43% win over former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R), despite polling suggesting the race was falling into the toss-up range. The final pre-election survey had found the race essentially lapsing into a dead heat, projecting Ms. Sherrill holding only a slight 49–48% edge heading into Election Day. The margin ultimately proved far wider, as Democrats significantly outperformed expectations across the state. The victory represents the first time since World War II that one political party has claimed the governorship in three consecutive New Jersey elections. With her win, the congresswoman will replace term-limited Governor Phil Murphy. Ms. Sherrill is expected to resign from the House shortly before assuming the governorship in mid-January, triggering a special election in her 11th district seat. Among those already positioning themselves for the race are former 7th district Congressman Tom Malinowski (D) and several local Democratic officials.
New York: Unofficial 2026 New York gubernatorial candidate Elise Stefanik, the North Country (NY-21) Republican Congresswoman, has taken a small lead over Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) according to a Manhattan Institute survey. The poll (10/22-26; 900 NY likely voters; live interview & text) finds Ms. Stefanik carrying a 43-42% edge over the governor who is seeking a second full four-year term. The margin is more significant than a simple one-point lead, however. The polling universe is over-sampled toward New York City. Of the 900 people in the sampling pool, only 300 are outside NYC. The fact that Stefanik is even close, let alone virtually even with the Governor, when 2/3 of the polling sample comes from a population universe where only 11% are registered as Republicans is surprising to say the least.
Ohio: The aforementioned Bowling State University/YouGov poll also tested the state’s open Governor’s race. The YouGov questionnaire paired consensus Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy individually against both former U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan (D), who is not an announced candidate, and former state Health Department Director Amy Acton (D) who is actively campaigning. The ballot test finds Ramaswamy leading both Democrats. He would top Mr. Ryan 49-47% and posts a similar 50-47% margin versus Dr. Acton.
Oklahoma: A Stratus Intelligence poll (10/15-17; 806 OK likely Republican primary voters) finds a major change in the Oklahoma GOP gubernatorial primary. Previously, Attorney General Gentner Drummond held a large lead over the entire field, but the aforementioned poll conducted for former state House Speaker Charles McCall finds a very different result. According to this survey, Mr. McCall has overtaken AG Drummond with a 32-30% margin. No other candidate even reaches 10 percent. In a proposed runoff, Mr. McCall would top the Attorney General, 49-36%. Incumbent Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
A second October poll also shows McCall leading Gentner Drummond for the open Republican gubernatorial nomination. The survey, from co/efficient (10/25-27; 855 OK likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text), depicts Mr. McCall expanding his previous small lead. The co/efficient data calculates the McCall advantage at 40-23%. The Oklahoma primary is scheduled for June 16 with a runoff date of August 25 if no candidate secures majority support in the first vote.
Oregon: Newly appointed state Senator Christine Drazan, who lost to now-Governor Tina Kotek by a tight 47-44% margin three years ago, announced that she will return for a re-match next year. Though the 2022 race was close, Oregon is one of the nation’s strongest Democratic states so Sen. Drazan will be a decided underdog in the 2026 election.
South Carolina: State Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Charleston), a former basketball star at the College of Charleston who unseated a Democratic incumbent legislator with 76% of the vote in 2020, announced his campaign for governor during the week. Rep. Johnson is the first prominent Democrat to enter the governor’s race contrasting to what promises to be a hotly contested open GOP primary. The Democrats last won the governor’s race in 1998. Gov. Henry McMaster (R) is ineligible to seek a third four-year term.
South Dakota: Another governor’s race is off to a very tight start. In South Dakota, a Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey (10/16-20; 502 SD likely Republican primary voters; live interview) finds at-large U.S. Representative Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) leading Gov. Larry Rhoden in the Republican primary by a single percentage point, 28-27%. Mr. Rhoden, elected in 2022 as South Dakota’s Lt. Governor, ascended to the state’s top position when then-Governor Kristi Noem resigned to become U.S. Homeland Security Secretary. Also in the Republican primary race are state House Speaker Jon Hansen and businessman Toby Doeden. In the Mason-Dixon poll, Messrs. Hansen and Doeden receive 15 and 10 percent support, respectively.
Virginia: The Old Dominion’s odd-numbered year governor’s race was won by Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former U.S. Representative. While early vote totals had suggested an improved Republican trend, the final returns confirmed her advantage held through Election Day.
State and Local
California: The latest polling suggests that California’s Proposition 50, which would replace the California Citizens Redistricting Commission map with a partisan gerrymander designed to reduce Republicans to just four of 52 U.S.House seats, appears headed toward passage in the November 4 special election. Emerson College (10/20-21; 900 CA likely special election voters; multiple sampling techniques) posted a 57-37% spread in favor of a yes vote. Expect a lawsuit to be filed immediately after the election challenging the legality of the new map.
Detroit: It appears that City Council President Mary Sheffield (D) is heading for a landslide runoff victory over local Detroit Pastor Solomon Kinloch (D) in the city’s open mayoral runoff. The Glengariff Group, polling for the Detroit News and WDIV-TV Channel 4 (10/16-18; 500 Detroit likely general election voters), sees Ms. Sheffield reaching a 65% preference figure as opposed to Rev. Kinloch’s 14 percent. Incumbent three-term Mayor Mike Duggan is running as an Independent for Governor.
New York City: Ss expected, state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (Democratic/Working Families) was elected Mayor of New York City, capturing what looks to be a bare majority of the vote. In the end, it appears the self-described Democratic Socialist outpaced former Governor Andrew Cuomo (Fight and Deliver Party), and Curtis Sliwa (Republican/Protect Animals Party) by a 50.4 – 41.6 – 7.1% margin. Polling did not fully capture Mamdani’s strength, nor Republican Sliwa’s weakness. In particular, the latter man polled approximately 10 points better on average than his ultimate performance. Certainly, going over the 50% mark gives Mr. Mamdani the mandate he needs to implement his more radical agenda, and certainly will have support to do so from the New York City Council. Much more to come in the ensuing weeks about this result and the new Mamdani Administration.
Seattle: If polling is correct, Seattle voters may be headed toward dumping Mayor Bruce Harrell (D) for an opponent who is even more progressive. Change Research (polling for the Northwest Progressive Institute; 10/19-23; online) finds challenger Katie Wilson (D) topping Mr. Harrell, 45-40%. DHM Research, polling for The Stranger political blog (10/6-13; 400 Seattle likely general election voters) found Ms. Wilson’s edge to be 42-38%.
Virginia: The Virginia legislature called itself back into session to pass the first of two bills that would lead to a special election in order to redraw the state’s congressional districts. The proposed map would reduce the Republicans to just one of the state’s 11 CDs. Voters would have to adopt removing the state redistricting commission’s map in a special election. Legal questions surround whether the legislature can meet all of the requirements for conducting a special election under the current time frame.
