November 18, 2025
U.S. Senate
Kentucky: Well-known racing horse trainer Dale Romans announced that he will compete for Kentucky’s open Democratic U.S. Senate nomination. In the primary he will face retired Marine Corps officer and 2020 U.S.Senate nominee Amy McGrath, who proved herself a strong fundraiser but lacking as a candidate. She was also defeated in a 2018 congressional race. Mr. Romans may have the resources to seriously compete with McGrath for the party nomination. Republicans will be favored to hold the seat from which retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) has represented since 1985. Former Attorney General and 2023 Republican gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron and U.S. Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington), who defeated Ms. McGrath in 2018, are the GOP candidates.
Massachusetts: The University of Massachusetts at Amherst and WVCB Polling partnered to test the Bay State Democratic electorate with regard to the respondents’ sentiments about the coming U.S. Senate primary election in September of next year. The pollsters queried 416 likely Democratic primary voters during the October 21-25 period with live interviews. The results found Sen. Ed Markey (D) leading his principal opponent, U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem), by a 44-25% margin. When leaners were added, the Senator led Rep. Moulton, 51-28%. Another member of the Massachusetts House delegation, U.S. Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Boston), continues to confirm that she is considering also entering the Senate race. In a hypothetical three-way contest, Sen. Markey has an early, though unimpressive, 31-24-20% advantage over Reps. Moulton and Pressley, respectively. When leaners are added, the Senator tops Moulton and Pressley, 35-25-21%. In 2020, Sen. Markey defended himself against a Democratic primary challenge from then-U.S. Rep. Jospeh P. Kennedy, III. Beginning behind, Sen. Markey rallied to defeat a member of the Kennedy family in their home state Democratic primary with a 55-45% margin. Sen. Markey is again favored to prevail in 2026.
Michigan: The Rosetta Stone polling organization released the results of an independent poll that finds Republican former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers polling ahead of all three Democratic U.S. Senate contenders. The Rosetta Stone poll (10/23-25; 637 MI likely general election voters) shows Mr. Rogers, who faces former Michigan Republican Party co-chair Bernadette Smith for the GOP nomination, ahead beyond the polling margin of error individually against each of the Democrats: U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. Opposite Rep. Stevens, Mr. Rogers leads 47-40%. If Sen. McMorrow was his opponent, the Rogers edge would be a similar 46-39%. The Rogers’ advantage grows if Mr. El-Sayed becomes his general election opponent. Under this scenario, the former Congressman posts a 45-31% margin.
Texas: New polling in the Texas Senate Democratic primary again shows trouble for 2024 Senate nominee and former Congressman Colin Allred. The Impact Research survey conducted for the James Talarico Senate campaign (10/23-29; 836 TX likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) finds state Rep. Talarico taking a 48-42% lead over Mr. Allred. In a late September survey from the University of Houston and Texas Southern University, the academic pollsters found Mr. Allred lagging in last place if the Democratic field consisted of he, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas), former El Paso Congressman and statewide candidate Beto O’Rourke, and state Rep. Talarico. For her part, Rep. Crockett says she is considering the Senate race and will make a decision at the December 8 candidate filing deadline. Ms. Crockett has led several Democratic statewide polls.
U.S. House of Representatives
CA-03: Rep. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento) announced that he will seek re-election in new district 3, which is more rural than his Sacramento County metro district. Though the congressman mentioned such an option recently, it is a bit surprising that he is making the move considering he will face Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento). The new 6th district, which is similar to Rep. Bera’s current seat, will now be open. Former state Senator Richard Pan (D), who had already announced his challenge to Rep. Kiley, now says he will run in district 6 since Rep. Bera has chosen the 3rd CD. The CA-3 seat flips from Republican to Democratic under the new map. Therefore, Rep. Bera will be the favorite to convert the district.
CA-11: Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) announced that she will not place her name on the ballot for re-election in 2026, thus ending what will be a 39 year career in the House. Ms. Pelosi was elected in a 1987 special election and has kept the seat through the present day. Her retirement possibility intensified when state Senator Scott Weiner (D-San Francisco) announced his intention to run for the House last month. Already, former Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) campaign manager Sakat Chakrabarti (D) had entered the race months ago.
While it was highly likely that Ms. Pelosi would have again won, it was questionable whether she wanted to enter what would have been an active campaign at age 86. Apparently, the answer is no. Expect more Democrats to come forward now that the retirement decision has been made. The CA-11 district is one of the safest Democratic seats in the country and will remain so under the new redistricting configuration that voters adopted on Election Day. The 11th will change little under the new map and is basically the city of San Francisco. Candidates will compete in a jungle primary format on June 2, with the top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation or percentage attained advancing to the general election. Sen. Weiner, who represents virtually the same area in the legislature will be a heavy favorite to become Rep. Pelosi’s successor.
Christine Pelosi has announced she will not run for her mother’s congressional seat but said she would run in a special election for state Senate if Sen. Scott Weiner wins the congressional race. Former San Francisco Mayor London Breed, who lost her 2024 re-election bid, has said she is considering entering the newly open congressional race.
CA-40: Under the new California map that will be in effect with the passage of Proposition 50 on Election Day veteran Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) says he will run for re-election in new district 40. This will put him on a collision course with fellow Republican Rep. Young Kim (R-La Habra) for one of the few districts in the state that is prone to elect a Republican. Rep. Calvert’s current 41st district was eviscerated into several parts giving him nowhere favorable to run. Rep. Calvert, a key member of the House Appropriations Committee, was first elected in 1992.
IL-04: In a surprise move at candidate filing time for the 2026 March midterm primary, four-term Illinois U.S. Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago), who failed in an attempt to win the 2023 Chicago Mayor’s race, did not file for re-election. This opened the door for his congressional chief of staff, Patty Garcia (D), to step up. Rep. Garcia was mum about his retirement plans in order to pave the way for his anointed candidate to take the seat virtually without opposition. Because of this maneuver, fellow Democratic colleague Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Vancouver) offered a nonbinding resolution against Rep. Garcia, which passed the House in a 236-183 bipartisan vote.
ME-01: In one of the many Democratic primary challenges forming around the country, veteran U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland), whose daughter, Hannah Pingree, is running for governor, has drawn a significant renomination opponent. State Rep. Tiffany Roberts (D-South Berwick) announced her congressional challenge to the nine-term incumbent. Rep. Pingree will, of course, be favored in the contest, but it will likely be a battle to monitor.
ME-02: Four-term U.S. Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston), who holds the most Republican district in the country that sends a Democrat to the House, announced that he will not seek a fifth term next year. Facing a difficult primary, likely against State Auditor and former Secretary of State Matt Dunlap who is to the left of Rep. Golden, would then have faced a hard-fought general election against former Governor Paul LePage (R). Maine’s 2nd district is a seat that both President Donald Trump and Mr. LePage have carried three times. This being the case, the Congressman decided that serving four terms, which is equivalent to the Maine legislature’s term limit, makes it the right time for him to retire. With six Democrats already in the open governor’s race, it appears one is considering leaving the statewide contest to join the open 2nd district Congressional race. Former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D) confirms he is being encouraged to run in the congressional race and says he is contemplating such a move. Mr. Jackson is not favored to win the open gubernatorial primary.
MD-06: Reports from western Maryland indicate that former U.S. Rep. David Trone, who lost the 2024 U.S. Senate Democratic primary to now Sen. Angela Alsobrooks, is making moves to test the political waters about a challenge to the woman who succeeded him in the House, freshman Rep. April McClain Delaney (D-Potomac). Mr. Trone, founder of the Total Beverage retail store chain, spent over $62 million of his own money on his losing statewide effort.
MI-07: The 7th district of Michigan was the only open seat in the country that changed political parties in 2024, and a new poll suggests history could repeat itself in 2026. Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling tested the MI-7 electorate (10/27-28; 557 MI-7 registered voters; text & live interview) and found two Democrats holding slight leads over freshman GOP Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte). According to PPP, retired Navy SEAL and ex-Obama White House aide Matt Maasdam (D) leads Rep. Barrett, 43-39%. If former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink were the Democratic nominee, she would lead Rep. Barrett, 45-41%. Both poll results are within the polling margin of error, meaning this race will likely go down to the wire in the toss-up category.
MN-05: Labor union leader Latonya Reeves announced a Democratic primary challenge to four-term U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis). Rep. Omar had a close call in the 2022 Democratic primary against former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels, winning only 50-48%, though she won handily in the 2024 Democratic primary against the same opponent. Still, Ms. Reeves has the opportunity of making the 2026 primary competitive.
NJ-12: Saying “it’s time to pass the torch,” six-term U.S. Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-Ewing Township/Trenton), 80 years of age, announced that she will not seek re-election next year. Prior to her election to the U.S. House in 2014, she served 17 years in the New Jersey General Assembly, four years of which as majority leader. From 2002-06, Ms. Watson Coleman chaired the New Jersey Democratic Party. The Garden State’s 12th district, which includes the capital city of Trenton, Princeton University, and North, East, and South Brunswick, is reliably Democratic. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 56.5D – 43.5R partisan lean. Very likely, Rep. Watson Coleman’s successor will be the open Democratic primary winner.
NY-08: New York City Councilman Chi Osse (D) is making moves to launch a Democratic primary challenge to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-Brooklyn). Mr. Osse is a strong supporter of Mayor-Elect Zohran Mamdani (D) and will challenge Mr. Jeffries from the left. Mr. Mamdani indicates that he is opposed to Mr. Osse making such a challenge.
TX-02: Four-term U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble/Houston) released a Meeting Street Insights Republican primary poll (10/21-23; 400 TX-2 likely Republican primary voters; live interview) that posts the incumbent to a 47-19% over state Rep. Steve Toth (R-Spring). The Texas primary is March 3, 2026. The Crenshaw-Toth campaign is expected to be competitive.
TX-19: House Budget Committee chairman Jodey Arrington (R-TX) announced he will not seek re-election to a sixth term next year from his safely Republican Lubbock anchored congressional district. In his announcement, the Congressman stressed that serving in elective office should be temporary as our founding fathers outlined. TX-19 is safely Republican (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 72.9R – 25.2D), and Rep. Arrington’s successor will be the ensuing Republican primary winner.
VA-02: Former Congresswoman Elaine Luria (D), who was defeated for re-election in 2022, announced that she will return for a rematch with the woman who unseated her, U.S. Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach). The 2nd district is politically marginal, but if the Democrats’ redistricting effort is successful, this district will almost assuredly flip.
Redistricting
California: With the passage of the Golden State redistricting referendum, members and candidates are determining where they will run. Rep. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento) is leaving his 6th CD to challenge Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento) in a 3rd district that now favors the Democrats. Veteran Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) sees his 41st district broken into parts, so he will challenge GOP Rep. Young Kim (R-La Habra) in the new 40th district. Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Whittier) announced that she will run in the new 41st CD, which now contains part of Los Angeles County. The 38th district becomes open. Los Angeles County Supervisor, former U.S. Labor Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Hilda Solis will run here. Pico Rivera City Councilwoman Monica Sanchez (D) and former Obama White House aide T.J. Adams-Falconer (D) will also run in district 38.
Ohio: The Ohio redistricting process was completed. The state has a unique system. A commission of bipartisan elected officials first considers a proposed map. If the seven members, including the state’s governor, approve a map with a unanimous vote, the plan becomes law without going to the legislature. Such is the case with the state’s new congressional map. Expect Republicans to gain one seat here, with two other Democratic districts becoming competitive.
Utah: Utah has new congressional lines. Previously, a judge had invalidated the current map drawn in 2021 because she maintained the legislature ignored criteria that voters approved through a ballot initiative. The Utah state Supreme Court then upheld her opinion. The result included bringing forth maps that adhered to the missing criteria. The chosen plan creates a Salt Lake City metro district that will assuredly elect a Democratic Representative and change the Utah delegation to one having three Republicans and a Democrat. The adopted plan means two Republicans will be paired for re-election. The most likely outcome is Republican Representatives Celeste Maloy and Mike Kennedy fighting to represent the state’s new 3rd CD. In the new Democratic 1st district, two prominent party members have already stepped forward to run for the seat: former Congressman Ben McAdams and state Sen. Kathleen Riebe (D-Salt Lake City).
Virginia: The Virginia elections, and the Democrats’ huge net gain of 13 seats in the House of Delegates, means that redistricting could occur in that state if the previously approved measure is approved again in the 2026 legislative session and backed by voters in a statewide referendum. The Democratic map suggests they can reduce Republicans to just one congressional seat of the state’s 11 seats. This would mean a net loss of four Republican seats.
Governorships
Arizona: Grayhouse Polling released their new statewide Republican primary survey (10/26-28; 397 AZ likely voters) and the results post U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) leading 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson 43-19% in the Republican primary. Recent entry David Schweikert, the eight-term 1st district Congressman, registers only 2% support. The eventual Republican nominee will challenge vulnerable Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). Mr. Biggs has been the consistent leader in polling since his announcement earlier this year.
Connecticut: As has been expected for months, Gov. Ned Lamont (D) finally acknowledged that he will seek a third term as governor next year. The governor will be a heavy favorite for re-election but apparently will face a Democratic primary opponent. State Rep. Josh Elliott (D-Hamden), who announced his gubernatorial bid in July indicated that he will stay in the race and attack the governor from the left. He points to wins in New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia on Election Day to support his claims that the party base is solidly left and demands action.
California: After publicly commenting that he might enter the open California governor’s race, Golden State U.S. Senator Alex Padilla (D) announced that he will not become a gubernatorial candidate. The field is crowded with no clear leader, but early polling suggested the Senator was not performing well. This obviously helped lead to his decision to bypass the governor’s race and concentrate on his duties in the U.S. Senate.
New Jersey: In the Garden State, Republican Jack Ciattarelli, who polling suggested was actually approaching the toss-up realm, lost to Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill by approximately 14 percentage points. This is first time in 71 years that one party will have claimed the governorship in three consecutive New Jersey elections.
New Mexico: State Sen. Steve Lanier (R-Aztec) announced that he will enter the 2026 gubernatorial campaign. He joins Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull in the GOP primary. Most of the action will be on the Democratic side, as three major candidates, former U.S. Interior Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Deb Haaland, Bernalillo County district Attorney Sam Bregman, and Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima compete for the party nomination. Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
New York: Now that U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) is an officially announced gubernatorial candidate, the J.L. Partners research firm conducted a statewide survey. The poll (11/9-10; 500 NY likely voters; live interview & text) found Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) leading Rep. Stefanik by only a 46-43% clip, which is relatively consistent with the Manhattan Institute survey (10/22-26; 900 NY likely voters) that forecasted a 43-42% Stefanik advantage.
Virginia: As expected in Virginia, Democratic former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger easily defeated Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. The biggest surprise was the attorney general’s election where incumbent Republican Jason Miyares fell to controversial Democrat Jay Jones. The Democratic nominee was caught sending texts advocating killing his Republican opponents. Additionally, ads from police officers were quoting a previous Jones’ comment saying that crime would ease if more police officers were killed. Still, Jones recorded a 53% victory.
State and Local
Alaska: Another effort to repeal the state’s Top Four jungle primary, where the first four finishers in the August primary advance to the general election, is underway. The proponents have filed a volume of signatures well beyond the requisite number and await approval for the ballot. The 2024 statewide ballot proposition to repeal the process failed by just 664 votes. Alaska’s current electoral system features Ranked Choice Voting if no candidate receives majority support in the general election. Adding RCV has clearly helped the Democrats and allowed them to twice win an at-large congressional race and force coalition control in the state legislature. Another close vote is forecast, assuming the initiative qualifies for the ballot.
Detroit: As expected, Detroit City Council president and former state Representative Mary Sheffield (D) easily won the mayoral position with a 3:1 landslide victory over local pastor Solomon Kinloch (D). Polling suggested that Ms. Sheffield would have an easy run in the general election. She will replace three-term incumbent Mike Duggan who was elected as a Democrat but is running for governor as an Independent.
Minneapolis: Mayor Jacob Frey (D) won re-election in the second round of Ranked Choice Voting. The Election Day raw vote tally found Mr. Frey posting the lead with 42% of the vote while state Rep. Omar Fateh (D-Minneapolis), a Democratic Socialist, posted 32%. The RCV round clinched the victory for Mayor Frey with 50.03% of the secondary vote as compared to Mr. Fateh’s 44.4 percent.
New Orleans: At-large City Councilwoman Helena Moreno (D), as expected, was easily elected as New Orleans next Mayor. The result had been expected when Ms. Moreno came close to claiming an outright majority in the initial election. She will replace outgoing Mayor LaToya Cantrell (D), who was ineligible to seek a third four-year stint under the city’s local term limit law.
New York City: State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, running as an avowed socialist, appears not only to have won the mayor’s position, but surprisingly did so with majority support. Mr. Mamdani was running ahead in polling during the entire general election cycle. As he did in the Democratic primary, he bested former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, this time running as the nominee of the Fight and Deliver Party. Mr. Mamdani slightly exceeded the 50% mark as compared to Mr. Cuomo’s 42%. Republican Curtis Sliwa, who had been polling in the high teens, managed to draw only 7% of the vote.
Seattle: Though polling suggested otherwise, Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell (D) held a substantial 54-46% lead over his Democratic Socialist opponent, Katie Wilson. Polling had suggested that an upset was possible, since the mayor’s job approval ratings are low. While the final result could have tightened, Mayor Harrell’s margin seemed large enough for him to soon declare victory. After days of counting, Harrell lost the battle to Wilson. The vote spread was 1,976 votes, meaning a 50.2 to 49.5 percent split. Ms. Wilson advocated some of the same policies as did New York Mayor Elect Zohran Mamdani.
