August 11, 2025
Though we are only at the midpoint before beginning a process that traditionally happens only once a decade, we could soon see redistricting action happening in several locations.
With the redistricting bill pending in the Texas House, Republicans are pushing a map that could expand their U.S. House majority by adding several seats from the Lone Star State. But the plan has been stalled as enough Democratic lawmakers have left the state—denying the chamber the 100 members needed to meet the constitutional quorum requirement. On August 11, only 96 members were present, four short of the threshold.
The escape move, which has been tried over the years, can slow the process but rarely stops it. Because the governor can call unlimited 30-day special sessions, the absence only delays the inevitable return of lawmakers. In the meantime, the prolonged standoff may have the side effect of further solidifying Republican unity behind the proposal, increasing its odds of eventual passage once the House reconvenes.
Soon, the Ohio legislature will begin their own redistricting process in order to comply with state law. Under the Buckeye State redistricting procedure, any plan that does not pass the legislature with at least 3/5 vote in each chamber, to assure bipartisan concurrence, can only be in effect for two election cycles. The 2021 congressional map passed with only majority support; therefore, it could stand for only the 2022 and 2024 elections. This means the state must put a new plan in place for the 2026 election and beyond.
In response to the occurring action, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) have both threatened that California could counter the Texas and Ohio action with their own redraw and urges other Democratic controlled states to do the same.
Setting the record straight, neither Texas nor Ohio is entering into a mid-decade redistricting merely for partisan purposes. The US Justice Department sent a letter to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Secretary of State Jane Nelson (R) informing them that some of the state’s congressional districts are illegal based upon a recent en banc US 5th Circuit Appellate Court ruling that affirmed a three judge federal panel’s initial decision.
Naturally, the Republicans will use the Texas and Ohio situations to improve their partisan standing, but is the Newsom-Padilla retaliation threat probable or even realistic? Chances are, no.
To even think about launching a mid-decade redistricting effort, a state realistically must have a trifecta, meaning one party controls both state legislative chambers and the Governor’s office. Under current state party division ratios, Republicans have 23 trifectas and Democrats’ fifteen.
Therefore, let’s look at where the Democrats could realistically counter the future Texas and Ohio maps with a more partisan congressional redistricting plan from their universe of 15 states.
In seven of these places, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts, New Mexico, and Rhode Island, the Democrats already hold every congressional seat so no new map could improve upon their current standing.
In three more states, Newsom and Padilla’s own California, Colorado, and New York, the legislature does not have the power to redraw districts. Citizens’ commissions were created through ballot proposition to handle redistricting.
In two more Democratic trifecta states, New Jersey and Washington, the redistricting process must begin before a specified commission of elected officials or those whom elected or political party officers appoint.
In the Commission states, the legislature and Governor would have to take action to eliminate the current structure in order to move forward on a new redistricting plan. In most instances, that would require a vote of the people since ballot proposition is typically the way these panels came into existence.
In California’s case, the Governor has said he would ask the legislature to adopt an emergency measure so he could call a special election. The people would then have to reject their previous vote and eliminate the commission process thus returning redistricting power to the legislature and Governor. Only then could redistricting begin the way Newsom and Padilla are suggesting. Clearly, this would be time consuming and a tall order.
Looking at Colorado, the commission process has arguably performed as the best in the nation. Furthermore, the elimination steps would even be more difficult here because the state Supreme Court is a part of the official redistricting process. Not only would a proposition vote be needed to eliminate the citizens commission, it would also have to remove the state Supreme Court from having final approval power.
It is unrealistic that Gov. Jared Polis (D) would initiate such a move especially when the various Colorado redistricting commissions experienced very little controversy during their initial cycle in 2021.
Thus, in only three of the Democratic controlled states, Illinois, Maryland, and Oregon, could the party leaders move forward with introducing new map legislation, but even in these places it would be a difficult call.
Many people believe that Illinois has already enacted the most gerrymandered map in the country, as Republicans are relegated to only three of 17 seats. Considering President Donald Trump received 43.5% of the 2024 Illinois presidential vote, it is difficult to see how a new map could take even more seats from the Republicans when they only control 18% of the districts and none north of Peoria.
The Maryland and Oregon congressional maps only allow the Republicans one seat in each state, so like in Illinois, it is difficult to see how either place can produce a more Democratic map. In Maryland, President Trump received 34% of the vote, yet Republicans have just 12.5% of the congressional seats. The situation is similar in Oregon. In 2024, President Trump garnered 41% of the vote, but the GOP controls just 17% of the Beaver State congressional seats.
Even if California could redraw, they would find themselves in a similar situation to that of Illinois, Maryland, and Oregon. The Golden State has 52 congressional districts and Republicans hold only nine seats. President Trump received 38% of the 2024 vote, and the Republican challenger to Gov. Newsom in 2022, then-state Senator Brian Dahle, attracted 41% support. Yet, the GOP is relegated to only 17% of the seats.
Therefore, it is difficult to see how the Democrats could improve their allotment of congressional seats in these places without beginning to endanger some of their current incumbents who would be left with more competitive districts; hence, they would risk opening a political Pandora’s Box.
Certainly, the Texas Democrats’ action will prolong, but not necessarily end, the current redistricting situation. We await the principals’ next moves.
