August 21, 2025
The Hawkeye State of Iowa will be among the nation’s hottest political domains in the next year, featuring competitive races from the top of the ballot to the bottom. Recently, we have seen new action occurring in several of the races.
Sen. Joni Ernst (R) has not yet formally announced for re-election and rumors that she would retire and yield to US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) as the consensus Republican candidate have dissipated. Sen. Ernst says she will declare her intentions in the Autumn.
The fact that she has raised $6.7 million during her current term and maintains $3.4 million cash-on-hand is a good indication that she is running.
One person who won’t be in the Senatorial field is state Rep. J.D. Scholten (D-Sioux City). Previously declaring for the Senate, Mr. Scholten recently announced that he is dropping his statewide bid and endorsed state Rep. Josh Turek’s (D-Council Bluffs) US Senate effort. Also in the Democratic primary race are state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines), Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris, and local Chamber of Commerce executive Nathan Sage.
Sen. Ernst will be a strong favorite for re-election, but it is obvious the Democrats are going to make this race a national target.
With Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) retiring, the 2026 Iowa Governor’s race will be an open contest. Five Republicans have announced their intention to run including three-term US Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City). In addition, two sitting state legislators, one former state Representative, and ex-State Administrative Services Director Adam Steen have all formally entered the Republican primary.
The Democrats are fielding four candidates, but all political eyes are on Iowa’s lone Democratic statewide elected official, State Auditor Rob Sand. A likely Feenstra-Sand general election will lead the ballot and promises to become a competitive race. Rep. Feenstra, however, begins the campaign as the favorite.
We will also see competitive action in all four of Iowa’s congressional districts.
Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) will face challenges in the Republican primary and general election. Her 56% showing in the 2024 GOP primary against an opponent who literally spent no money and winning the general election with just a 799-vote cushion leaves her in vulnerable position. Her 2024 primary opponent, advertising executive David Pautsch, is returning for a re-match and promises to raise and spend money in the coming race.
The 2022 and ’24 Democratic nominee, former state Rep. Christina Bohannan, returns for a third run. She faces credible Democratic opposition, however, in the person of former state Rep. Bob Krause and attorney Taylor Wettach.
Rep. Hinson just drew a formidable Democratic opponent this week. State Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque) formally announced her candidacy and will launch a spirited general election campaign. She faces three announced Democrats in the party primary, none of whom have ever been elected to any office.
After flirting with running for Governor and even moving to the open 4th District, which is a much safer Republican CD than his own, Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant) will seek re-election in his Des Moines anchored 3rd District. IA-3 is politically marginal (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 49.8R – 47.0D), which guarantees a close finish.
Two strong Democrats, state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott (D-Des Moines) and former state House Minority Leader Jennifer Konfrst, are the major contenders. This district’s electorate has unseated two incumbents, one from each party, since 2018.
With Rep. Feenstra leaving the House to run for Governor, the open western 4th District will largely be decided in the Republican primary (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 61.9R – 34.9D). State House Majority Leader Matt Windchitl (R-Harrison County) and Siouxland Chamber of Commerce president Chris McGowan appear to be the leading GOP candidates.
The Iowa primary is scheduled for June 2. The state has a post-nomination election process for races that end with no candidate receiving 35% of the vote. A special party convention is then called for the affected district or state, with delegates choosing the eventual party nominee.
As we can see, all of the state’s most important races will offer a high degree of competition throughout next year. Expect Iowa to draw major national political attention in the coming months.
