July 28, 2025
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) adding congressional redistricting to the special legislative session issue call has already elicited a response from a Democratic adversary.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), attacking Gov. Abbott and the Texas redistricting move as a partisan power grab, says he will retaliate with his own legislature redrawing the Golden State congressional map to neutralize any seat gain that the new Republican map yields.
Several points make Newsom’s planned response unrealistic. First, the California legislature has no redistricting power. In 2008, voters adopted a constitutional ballot proposition that created the California Citizens Redistricting Commission which took the redistricting pen away from the legislature and awarded it to an appointed panel of individuals who are not in elected office. Therefore, Newsom and the legislators would first have to find a way to disband the Commission in order to proceed with a new map.
According to an article from The Down Ballot political blog that quoted Gov. Newsom from an interview he conducted with the Pod Save America hosts, the California chief executive indicated that he could call his own special session to place a measure on a special election ballot to void the Commission. Gov. Newsom said on the podcast that he thinks “…we would win that. I think people understand what’s at stake in California. I think we come out in record numbers. I think it would be [an] extraordinary success,” the Governor concluded.
His prediction may or may not be accurate, and Newsom acknowledges that the calendar would be a major obstacle for such a movement because the commission invalidation process would require so much time.
The second option would be to claim, as Newsom said, that the Commission lacks mid-decade redistricting authority. The Governor argued that the ballot proposition awarded the Commission redistricting power after the Census was released and the lines would hold for the full decade. He said answering whether the Commission even has redistricting authority beyond once every 10 years and immediately after a Census should be pursued.
The third obstacle would be simply drawing a map that would give the Democrats five more seats in the California delegation. Gov. Newsom quoted President Donald Trump (R) as saying a new Texas Republican map could provide US House Speaker Mike Johnson (R) with five additional Republican seats. Therefore, Newsom said California could neutralize such an increase.
The California delegation has 52 members, and only nine are Republican. Can the Republicans be reduced to just four seats without endangering some Democratic incumbents? Seems the difficulty factor to avoid such an outcome is high when considering that President Trump received 38% of the statewide vote in 2024 and even Gov. Newsom’s own 2022 opponent, then-state Senator Brian Dahle (R), garnered 41 percent.
Additionally, since the Census was released, Democrats have lost almost a full percentage point in voter registration affiliation and the Republicans have gained a point, not to mention that the overall state population figure is reduced.
According to the latest published voter registration figures (February 2025), Democrats claim 45.27% of the affiliations, Republicans 25.22%, and the non-affiliated, or Declined to State, option records 25.34%. Minor parties absorb the remaining 4.17 percent. Therefore, considering these numbers in trying to reduce the Republicans to just 7.7% of the seats (4 of 52), would prove to be quite a mathematical feat.
Additionally, using the Texas Democrats’ argument that the Lone Star State map is already gerrymandered because Republicans control 66% of the congressional seats but their presidential nominee only received 56% of the vote pales in comparison to the ratios in the current California map. There, Democrats control 83% of the districts even though the Democratic presidential candidate, and California winner, garnered only 58%.
The Texas map is explained in that President Trump carried all 25 Republican districts and two of the Democratic seats and ran almost four points ahead of the statewide Republican partisan lean calculation. In California, Kamala Harris carried no Republican congressional district and ran five points below the Democratic partisan lean figure.
The Texas legislature has convened for its special session, which is limited to 30 days, and a new congressional map is expected to be released early in the session. Once the map is available, further analysis can be conducted, and Gov. Newsom’s countermove strategy may come into play.
In addition to Texas, the White House is also eyeing Missouri, where redrawing the state’s 5th Congressional District could be on the table.
According to Axios, other states where mid-cycle redistricting could occur include those where governors and legislatures can act unilaterally—such as Florida, Ohio, Maryland, Missouri, Texas, and Oregon—and those where changes would require court orders or special elections, like California, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, and Washington.
