July 8, 2025
U.S. Senate
Georgia: A new Cygnal polling firm study finds Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) leading all his prospective Republican opponents beyond the polling margin of error. According to the Cygnal poll (6/16-19; 610 GA likely general election voters; online and text), Sen. Ossoff would lead state Agriculture Commissioner John King (R), 50-40%, former college football coach Derek Dooley (R) 50-41%, and US Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), 49-42%. The Georgia Senate race is expected to be one of the most competitive in the nation.
Michigan: While US Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) readies an announcement to enter the open Michigan US Senate race, a Fabrizio Lee & Associates poll conducted for the First Principles Digital organization (6/17-9; 600 MI likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) finds former US Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers holding a substantial GOP primary lead.
According to the Fabrizio Lee results, Mr. Rogers would lead Rep. Huizenga 48-20% among likely Republican primary voters. The Michigan primary will not occur until August 4, 2026.
Montana: Former Sen. Jon Tester (D), who lost his seat after three terms to now Sen. Tim Sheehy (R) in November (53-45%), said he will not return in 2026 to challenge Sen. Steve Daines (R). The Senator, who as then-chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, was an instrumental figure in recruiting Sheehy that led to Tester’s defeat. Mr. Tester said he believes “Democrats make this mistake too often; we try to recycle candidates.”
New Hampshire: Former Massachusetts US Senator and 2014 New Hampshire Senate nominee Scott Brown (R) announced in late June that he will launch another attempted political comeback. He will enter the Republican primary for the New Hampshire open Senate seat. Mr. Brown is favored to win the party nomination, but against consensus Democratic candidate US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester), it will be a considerable challenge for him to do better than the 48-51% showing he made against now-retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) eleven years ago or President Trump’s identical 48-51% finish last November.
North Carolina: In a surprise announcement while tensions were rising over passing the “One Big Beautiful Bill” in the Senate, North Carolina’s two-term incumbent Thom Tillis (R) who had already announced for re-election, abruptly declared over the weekend that he will not run in 2026.
North Carolina was already going to host one of the most competitive races in the country considering its history of often posting close election results. It was also clear that Sen. Tillis was the top incumbent Republican target. Sen. Tillis’ retirement will change the North Carolina and national political situation for both parties, and this open Senate race will be one of the 2026 election cycle’s key focal points.
Democrats are looking toward former Gov. Roy Cooper as their preferred candidate. Lt. Gov. Rachel Hunt, daughter of former four-term Gov. Jim Hunt (D), is another possibility. For the Republicans, all eyes are on presidential daughter-in-law Lara Trump who hails from the state though currently living in Florida.
Texas: As has been expected, former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Colin Allred (D), pledging to be a better candidate, announced that he will enter the 2026 US Senate race. While most eyes are on the budding Republican primary between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Democrats, too, may see an intra-party squabble.
In addition to Mr. Allred, former Congressman, ex-presidential and US Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke, and US Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) continue to say that they are considering entering the Senate race.
U.S. House of Representatives
GA-1: Jim Kingston, son of former Georgia Congressman Jack Kingston (R), announced that he will compete in the open 1st District Republican primary next year for the seat his father held for 22 years, from 1993 through 2015. Jack Kingston left the House to run unsuccessfully for US Senate in the 2014 election. Jim Kingston, an insurance broker, joins four others in the budding Republican primary campaign, including two local county commissioners. Six-term incumbent Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) is a candidate in the current US Senate election.
IA-2: Former US Attorney Kevin Techau (D) announced that he is ending his quest to oppose US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Falls), citing a lack of fundraising support. At this point, Rep. Hinson is unopposed for re-election to a fourth term.
MI-7: It appears Democrats will have a competitive primary with the winner advancing to challenge freshman Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte/Lansing). Last week, former US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink (D) announced her candidacy. This week, retired Navy SEAL Matt Massdam also joined the Democratic nomination contest. The 7th District, known for its close election results, is expected to again gain national attention in the 2026 election.
NE-2: Five-term Nebraska US Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) this week announced that he will not seek re-election in 2026, a development that many political observers expected.
The Cornhusker State’s 2nd District has attracted a great deal of attention in the last two presidential election years. Like Maine, Nebraska apportions its electoral votes meaning that each congressional district – the state has three – casts its own vote as opposed to the winner-take-all process that the other 48 states utilize. In both 2020 and 2024, NE-2 voted for the Democratic nominee against President Trump, thus awarding one of Nebraska’s five electoral votes to the opposite party’s national candidate.
Democrats will make a major push here. The early leading candidate is state Sen. John J. Cavanaugh, IV (D-Omaha), the son of former Congressman John J. Cavanaugh, III who served in the House from 1977-1981. On the Republican side, Douglas County Sheriff, a top GOP
recruitment target, said he will not run. Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding immediately declared his candidacy upon Rep. Bacon’s retirement announcement.
NH-1: Though former Portsmouth City Councilmember Stefany Shaheen (D), daughter of retiring US Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), appears to be the leading candidate in the open 1st District seat, another Democratic candidate entered the race this week.
OH-9: 2024 congressional nominee and ex-state Rep. Derek Merrin (R), who lost to veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo), 48.3 – 47.6% last November, announced that he will return for a rematch next year. Also declaring is state Rep. Josh Williams (R-Sylvania Township). Because Ohio state law forces further redistricting when a high level of bipartisan legislative support is not attained, means the Buckeye State congressional map must be redrawn for 2026 and beyond. In 2021, the current map did not receive 3/5 support in each legislative chamber meaning that the map could only be used in the 2022 and 2024 elections. A new map could make the 9th District that voted 53-46% for President Trump even more Republican since Rep. Kaptur still won a 22nd term despite a substantial victory margin for her opposite party at the top of the ticket.
Attorney and National Guard soldier Christian Urrutia declared his candidacy, becoming the fifth Democrat to do so. This will be a competitive open race, but the Democrats begin with the advantage. Incumbent US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is running for the Senate.
PA-3: After battling the after-effects from a stroke that kept him from participating in congressional action for better than half a year, five-term US Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia) announced that he will retire at the end of the current Congress.
Mr. Evans was elected to his federal post in 2016 after serving 36 years in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. With a 3rd District voter registration of 77.8% Democratic and 10.0% Republican, a crowded Dem primary is expected and will decide Rep. Evans’ successor. Next year’s Keystone State primary is scheduled for May 19th.
SD-AL: Four-term at-large South Dakota US Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) announced that he will enter the 2026 Governor’s race next year, a move that had been expected. The South Dakota Republican primary will be interesting in that Rep. Johnson is likely headed for a match against the now-sitting Republican Governor, Larry Rhoden. Once then-Governor Kristi Noem resigned to become US Homeland Security Secretary, Mr. Rhoden, then the state’s Lt. Governor, ascended into the state’s chief executive position.
While he has not yet formally announced his candidacy, it is expected that Gov. Rhoden will soon declare his official candidacy. Also in the race is state House Speaker Jon Hansen (R-Dell Rapids) and wealthy conservative businessman Toby Doeden.
The South Dakota Republican primary, scheduled for June 2nd, will very likely decide the state’s next Governor. The last time Democrats claimed the South Dakota Governorship was in the 1974 election. South Dakota is a runoff state. If no primary candidate receives at least 35% of the vote, a secondary election will be held. For next year, the runoff date, if necessary, will be July 28th.
TN-7: Though US Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksburg) has yet to officially resign, a third Republican has announced his candidacy to replace the outgoing member. State Rep. Jay Reedy (R-Erin) declared his candidacy this week. He joins ex-gubernatorial cabinet member Matt Van Epps and Montgomery County Commissioner Jason Knight in the developing special Republican primary.
TX-23: Wealthy conservative Texas rancher Susan Storey Rubio announced that she will challenge three-term US Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) in the sprawling 23rd Congressional District that stretches from San Antonio all the way to El Paso. Considering Ms. Rubio’s ability to self-fund and already casting Rep. Gonzales as a “spineless moderate” suggests that this may be a March primary challenge worth watching.
TX-28: Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina (R) announced that he is forming a congressional exploratory committee to assess his chances of winning both the Republican congressional primary and a general election against veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo). Webb County, which houses the city of Laredo, is the largest population entity in the 28th CD just slightly ahead of the Bexar County (San Antonio) portion. Already in the Republican primary is former Congresswoman Mayra Flores who is moving into this district from the 34th CD (Brownsville) where she was elected in a special election but defeated in two subsequent campaigns in a redistricted TX-34 that was made more Democratic. Clearly, the 28th will feature both a competitive Republican primary on March 3rd and a hotly contested general election. Last November, Rep. Cuellar, despite being under federal indictment, defeated retired Navy officer Jay Furman (R) 53-47% while President Trump was carrying the CD over Kamala Harris with a 53-46% margin. Mr. Furman is also returning for another run.
VA-11: Local northern Virginia Democratic and Republican parties hosted their “firehouse primaries” that produced special general election candidates to replace the late US Representative Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) who passed away in March.
For the Democrats who dominate Virginia’s 11th Congressional District, Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw who received the Connolly family’s endorsement and had served for 11 years as Rep. Connolly’s chief of staff, was easily nominated in the primary capturing 60% of the vote. State Delegate Irene Shin (D-Herndon) was a distant second with 14.3% while state Senator Stella Pekarsky (D-Centreville) attracted 13.4 percent.
On the Republican side, former FBI agent and Iraq War veteran Stewart Whitson was the plurality “firehouse primary” winner, though GOP turnout, as expected within this overwhelmingly Democratic district, was only a fraction of their political rivals’. According to the Fairfax County Local News site, 37,624 voters participated in the Democratic firehouse primary as opposed to the Republicans’ 2,601 ballots cast per the Inside NOVA news site report.
Governorships
Iowa: State House Speaker Pat Grassley (R-New Hartford), grandson of venerable US Senator Chuck Grassley (R), announced that he will seek re-election to the state House and not pursue a gubernatorial candidacy. The leading Republican open seat gubernatorial candidate is US Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City), but he faces opposition from state Sen. Mike Bousselot (R-Ankeny), state Rep. Eddie Andrews (R-Des Moines) and former state Rep. Brad Sherman.
New York: The Siena College Research Institute conducted one of their regular New York statewide polls (6/23-26; 800 NY registered voters; live interview) and found Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in an improved political position. In the hypothetical general election, she would defeat US Rep. Elise Stefanik (D-Schuylerville), 47-24%, and tops Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado and US Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) 49-12-10% in the Democratic primary.
While her ballot test shows improvement, Gov. Hochul’s favorability index is still an upside-down 42:47% favorable to unfavorable and by a margin of 37-50%, the respondents believe New York is headed down the wrong track.
State and Local Races
New York City: The Honan Strategy Group conducted a post-primary survey of New York City likely voters (6/26-27; 817 NYC likely mayoral general election voters; text to web) testing new Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani against both Mayor Eric Adams (I) and former Governor Andrew Cuomo running as a minor third party nominee.
The ballot test results project a tie between Messrs. Mamdani and Cuomo with each attracting 39% support as compared to just 13% for Mayor Adams and 7% for Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa. In terms of personal favorability, Mr. Cuomo posts a 56:43% favorable image, Mamdani upside-down at 40:48%, and Adams faring poorly with a 23:66% positive to negative image. Though they became unnecessary, the Ranked Choice Voting results were released during the week and found Mr. Mamdani reaching the 56% support mark.
