August 12, 2025
U.S. Senate
Florida: Educator and 2025 special election congressional nominee Josh Weil (D) announced that he is dropping his US Senate bid. Mr. Weil says a health condition prevents him from continuing his campaign. Earlier this year, Mr. Weil ran as a socialist in a conservative district but managed to raise over $15 million mostly from national sources. Mr. Weil lost to now-Rep. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) by a 57-43% margin in the April special election.
Nine Democratic remain in the primary race. Former Congressman Alan Grayson is the only contender ever elected to office. Appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R) is competing in the 2026 statewide special election to serve the balance of the current Senate term. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) appointed Ms. Moody, then the state’s Attorney General, to replace Marco Rubio who was appointed US Secretary of State.
Georgia: US Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson), as expected, formally announced his campaign for the US Senate. He joins US Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), state Senator Colten Moore (R-Trenton), and former college football coach Derek Dooley in the GOP field. Agriculture Commissioner John King, who was a Senate candidate, has ended his effort. Gov. Brian Kemp (R), who at one time considered entering the Senate race himself, announced his endorsement of Mr. Dooley. The former college coach is the son of legendary University of Georgia football coach Vince Dooley. The eventual Republican nominee will challenge first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) in the 2026 general election.
Iowa: Two more Democrats are coming forward to enter the 2026 US Senate primary. Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris, a former chief of staff to First Lady Michelle Obama, announced that she will enter the Senate primary. Expected to soon declare is state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs). Already in the Democratic primary are state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines) and state Rep. J.D. Scholten (D-Sioux City). The eventual party nominee will challenge Sen. Joni Ernst (R) in the general election.
Louisiana: Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta announced that he will enter the US Senate Republican primary to challenge Sen. Bill Cassidy (R). At the end of 2024, State Treasurer John Fleming declared his primary challenge to Sen. Cassidy. So far, the opposition has yet to score many points against the Senator, an incumbent unlikely to receive Mr. Trump’s support because he voted in favor of impeaching the President after the January 6th march on the Capitol.
North Carolina: Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley formally announced his US Senate bid with President Trump’s backing along with that of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. It is already evident that he will advance into a toss-up general election to face presumptive Democratic nominee Roy Cooper, the former two-term Governor and four-term Attorney General. Sen. Thom Tillis (R) is not seeking re-election.
U.S. House of Representatives
AL-01: In anticipation of Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) announcing for the Senate on August 15, former US Rep. Jerry Carl (R), who lost to Mr. Moore when the two were paired in one district after a 2023 court-ordered redistricting, has filed a 2026 congressional committee with the Federal Election Commission. The move further suggests that Mr. Carl will attempt a political comeback once Rep. Moore officially declares for the open Senate seat as expected. Chances appear strong that ex-Rep. Carl will be able to win the open 1st District Republican primary and the general election in November of 2026. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation for AL-1 is 76.5R – 22.0D.
CA-32: Jake Levine (D), a former Biden Administration and son of former US Rep. Mel Levine (D-CA), announced his challenge to veteran US Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks). Jake Rakov, a former Sherman staff member who says the Congressman has lost touch with his constituents, is also in the race. It is likely that another Democrat will advance into the general election against Rep. Sherman who is virtually guaranteed to advance from the June 2, 2026, jungle primary.
CA-45: Ex-US Rep. Michelle Steel (R) announced that she will not return for a re-match against freshman US Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange). After her defeat by a margin of just 563 votes from almost 316,000 cast ballots, the second closest race in the country, Ms. Steel filed a 2026 campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission. Now saying she has “other goals,” Ms. Steel is abandoning a congressional comeback effort for next year. The 45th District, which contains parts of Orange and Los Angeles Counties, carries a 52.2D – 45.9R partisan lean according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. Kamala Harris topped President Trump here, 49.3 – 47.8%.
CT-01: Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin became the third Democrat to announce a primary challenge to veteran Connecticut US Rep. John Larson (D-Hartford). Also in the race are Hartford School Board member Ruth Fortune and Southington Town Councilman Jack Perry. Clearly, however, Mr. Bronin will be the Congressman’s most formidable challenger. At 77 years of age with health issues and now a serious primary challenge, Rep. Larson is viewed as a top retirement prospect.
HI-01: US Rep. Ed Case (D-Kaneohe) has drawn a Democratic primary challenge from state Senator Jarrett Keohokalole (D-Kaneohe). Mr. Keohokalole also served in the state House and is an attorney. This race could become serious, but Hawaii voters rarely unseat an incumbent. Incidentally, neither man lives in the 1st District which is anchored in Honolulu.
IL-07: Veteran US Rep. Danny Davis (D-Chicago) announced that he will not seek re-election next year ending what will be a 30-year congressional career at the end of the current Congress. Mr. Davis was originally elected to the Chicago City Council in 1979 and then moved to the Cook County Commission in 1990 before winning his congressional seat in 1996. Over his long career, he averaged 85.9% of the vote in his 15 federal general elections and broke the 80% barrier each time. In his last two Democratic primaries, however, where multiple challengers competed, his renomination percentage dropped to 52.4 and 51.9%. We can expect a crowded Democratic primary field to form vying to replace the 83-year old Congressman. The eventual Democratic nominee becomes the prohibitive favorite in November of 2026 to hold the seat.
IL-16: US Rep. Darin LaHood (R-Peoria), after indicating he was considering entering the 2026 Illinois Governor’s race has instead decided to seek re-election to a seventh term in the US House. Holding one of only three Illinois Republican seats, Rep. LaHood will be a prohibitive favorite to win both renomination and re-election in 2026.
MI-10: Action is beginning to happen in the very competitive open 10th Congressional District. Former two-term US Rep. Mike Bishop (R) confirms he is considering entering the race. Mike Bouchard, Jr. (R), son of 26-year Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, Sr., is expected to announce his campaign when he returns from overseas deployment with the Army National Guard. Macomb County prosecutor Robert Lulgjuraj declared his candidacy for the GOP nomination. Five Democrats, led by ex-Commerce Department official Eric Chung and Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel, comprise the party’s candidate field. Incumbent Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) is running for Governor. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 49.5D – 47.9R partisan lean, one of the tightest in the nation. This race will be rated a toss-up all the way through the 2026 election.
MN-05: Labor leader Latonya Reeves announced that she will wage a Democratic primary battle against controversial US Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis). The Congresswoman quickly responded in announcing endorsements from Gov. Tim Walz, US Senators Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith, and Attorney General and previous 5th District Congressman Keith Ellison. Rep. Omar has won consecutive close primary elections against former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels, who is not returning for a third run.
NE-02: State Senator John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha) has released the results of his internal GBAO Strategies poll (7/21-23; 400 NE-2 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text), which find him leading his principal primary opponent, Douglas County District Court Clerk Crystal Rhoades by a 36-15% count with a name ID of 71% within the polling universe. Mr. Cavanaugh’s father, John Cavanaugh, III, represented the Omaha anchored 2nd District for two terms in the late 1970s.
NV-01: State Sen. Carrie Buck (R-Henderson) announced that she will challenge veteran US Rep. Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas) next year. Republicans have needed a stronger candidate to oppose the Congresswoman in a district that could become highly competitive. Dave’s Redistricting App rates the NV-1 partisan lean as 52.6D – 42.3R, but the presidential races have proven closer. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried the district, but with only a 50.2 – 48.0% victory margin. In 2020, President Biden won the seat with a 53.2 – 44.7% spread. Rep. Titus will be favored for re-election, but this is a contest that could draw national attention.
NY-01: Air Traffic Controller and Army National Guard Black Hawk helicopter pilot Chris Gallant (D) announced his intention to compete for the Democratic nomination to challenge two-term US Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County). In his two congressional races, Rep. LaLota recorded a pair of 55% victories. Assuming the district remains in its current configuration, the Congressman will again be a clear favorite for re-election.
TN-07: Gov. Bill Lee (R) set the dates for the upcoming special election to replace resigned Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville). The partisan primaries will be held on October 7, with the special general scheduled for December 2. The candidate filing deadline is today.
TX-18: The Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston released the results of their just completed special congressional election survey (7/9-18; 2,300 Harris County registered voters; online & text) that unsurprisingly suggests the race will advance into a secondary runoff election. Within the crowded field of 28 announced jungle election candidates, not all of whom will eventually qualify for the ballot, Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman and ex-statewide candidate Amanda Edwards (D) are leading all contenders with each posting a 19% preference factor. Former Miss Universe contestant and previous congressional candidate Carmen Maria Montiel and state Rep. Jolanda Jones (D-Houston) are tied for third place with 14% apiece. No other candidate receives double digit support. George Foreman, IV, son of the late famous boxer, is running as an Independent and attracts 4 percent support.
Redistricting
Texas: The Texas legislative situation intensifies as state House Democrats en masse flew to other places in order to break the legislative quorum, thus freezing the Speaker from calling the House to order. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) then petitioned the state Supreme Court to declare Democratic leader Gene Wu (D-Houston), the individual that organized the flight, as “abandoning” his district, and therefore asked the court to declare the seat vacant. The special session ends on August 20. Gov. Abbott has the power to call an unlimited number of 30-day special sessions, so he is expected to begin another if this session ends without completing the entire special agenda.
Governorships
Alaska: Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R), in what could be an off-the-cuff response to a reporter’s question, indicated that she is considering entering the open Governor’s race next year. A crowded field is forming on both sides, but obviously Sen. Murkowski would become a key competitor if she were to run. Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
California: Former Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris announced she will not enter the open 2026 California Governor’s race, fueling speculation she may instead prepare for a 2028 presidential bid. Harris previously served as California’s Attorney General and US Senator before joining Joe Biden’s 2020 ticket. With Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) term-limited, an extraordinary 72 individuals, according to the Politics1 political blog, have already announced for the June 2, 2026, gubernatorial jungle primary. Leading Democrats include Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, state Senate President Toni Atkins, former HHS Secretary and Attorney General Xavier Becerra, ex-Rep. Katie Porter, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. Republicans are led by Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Fox News personality Steve Hilton. Diamond Resorts founder Stephen Cloobeck (D) recently joined the race and opened with sharp attacks, particularly aimed at Porter. While over 70 hopefuls have declared, it remains unclear how many will qualify for the ballot. What is certain is that the field will be large, with the top two finishers regardless of party advancing to the general election.
Georgia: US Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) announced that she will not enter the open gubernatorial race next year. This likely leaves the GOP field to Attorney General Chris Carr, the first to announce his gubernatorial intentions, and Lt. Gov. Burt Jones who entered the campaign within the last month. Rep. Greene not entering the race is a plus for Mr. Jones since they both come from the party’s right faction. The likely Democratic leader is former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Two-time Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams, however, has not ruled out entering the race.
Maine: Businessman Ben Midgley, the former long-time president of the Planet Fitness national gym company, announced that he will enter what is becoming a crowded open gubernatorial field in both parties. Gov. Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term but not ruling out a challenge to Sen. Susan Collins (R). In addition to Mr. Midgley, state Sen. Jim Libby (R-Cumberland), former Assistant US Secretary of State Bobby Charles, businessman Jonathan Bush, real estate developer David Jones, University of Maine Trustee Owen McCarthy, and Paris Town Supervisor Robert Wessels, appear to be the major Republican candidates. For the Democrats, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland), businessman Angus King III, son of US Sen. Angus King (I), and former state Senate President Troy Jackson are the major contenders. The eventual Democratic nominee will be favored to hold the position.
Michigan: It appears the 2026 open Wolverine State Governor’s race will become a legitimate three-way campaign. According to The Down Ballot political blog, the leading fundraiser to date at $3.2 million in receipts is Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan who is running as an Independent. The fundraising report is one more data point that suggests this campaign will be one of the most interesting of the 2026 statewide races.
New Jersey: A new Fairleigh Dickinson University poll (7/17-23; 806 NJ likely gubernatorial election voters; live interview & text) again finds Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) leading 2021 gubernatorial nominee and ex-Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R) by a 45-37% clip. Within the sampling universe, 35% said they would “definitely” vote for Ms. Sherrill while 25% said the same for Mr. Ciattarelli. Since Mr. Ciattarelli has repeatedly under-polled his actual performance, the split between the two could be smaller. This race will be decided on November 4.
South Carolina: The South Carolina Policy Council released a Targoz Market Research survey (7/21-25; 1,200 likely SC voters; compensated respondents; online) that finds Congresswoman Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), who has since announced her candidacy, and Attorney General Alan Wilson locked in a virtual dead heat for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. According to the poll, Ms. Mace would lead Mr. Wilson 16-15%, with Lt. Gov. Paula Evette, US Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Spartanburg) trailing with 8, 6, and 3 percent support, respectively. Also in the GOP race is four-term Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of veteran US Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale). The eventual Republican nominee will succeed Gov. Henry McMaster (R), who is ineligible to seek a third full term and will retire as the longest-serving Governor in South Carolina history.
Tennessee: As has been expected for months, Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) announced that she will enter her state’s open Governor’s race, and the political road appears clear for an easy victory. Incumbent Gov. Bill Lee (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Upon her election, Ms. Blackburn would become the 51st Governor and the first female chief executive in the Volunteer State’s long history. Tennessee became the nation’s 16th state, officially admitted to the Union in 1796. She must first battle US Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) who, at this point, is the only other official Republican gubernatorial primary entry. With her strong electoral record and being a fervent Trump supporter, it is hard to see a scenario where she fails to claim the nomination. With Democratic strength at its nadir in the state, it also becomes challenging to see how she would have difficulty in the general election.
State and Local
Georgia Attorney General: Former state House Minority Leader Bob Trammell (D) announced his candidacy for the open Attorney General’s position. Republican state Senators Bill Cowsert (R-Athens) and Brian Strickland (R-McDonough) are battling for the Republican nomination. Incumbent Attorney General Chris Carr (R) is running for Governor. Expect a close open seat general election battle for this office.
Kansas Attorney General: 2022 Attorney General nominee Chris Mann (D) announced he will return to seek a re-match with incumbent AG Kris Kobach (R). Three years ago, Mr. Kobach won a close 51-49% open general election. Mr. Kobach has been controversial over the years especially when losing the 2018 open gubernatorial election to current Gov. Laura Kelly (D). Speculation was that Kobach would again enter the Governor’s race, but there is no recent indication that he will do so. Still, he can expect to see a competitive re-election battle for Attorney General next November.
Detroit Mayor: The Detroit mayoral jungle primary election was held on August 5, and two Democrats advanced into the November general election. City Council President Mary Sheffield exceeded the 50% threshold in the first election, but under the Detroit city procedure one cannot win outright even with majority support. Therefore, she advances into an open November general election against second place finisher Solomon Kinloch, a well-known local pastor. The field featured nine total candidates including retired former Detroit Police Chief James Craig who was running as a Republican. Incumbent Mayor Mike Duggan (I) is not seeking a fourth term in order to run for Governor
Seattle Mayor: In what will be a general election of far left candidates, community organizer Katie Wilson (D) placed first in the August 5 primary election with Mayor Bruce Harrell (D) finishing a close second among the eight candidates. Neither reached the majority support mark of 50%, as both finished in the high 40s. The general election will be highly competitive.
