February 18, 2026
U.S. Senate
Alabama: The new Alabama Poll (Released 2/6; 500 AL likely Republican primary voters) suggests a closing Republican US Senate primary contest. According to the new survey results, Attorney General Steve Marshall leads US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) and retired Navy SEAL and anti-human trafficking activist Jared Hudson, 26-17-8%. Though still trailing, the result is a net nine-point improvement for Rep. Moore after he received President Trump’s endorsement. The Congressman also has a slight advantage in cash-on-hand according to the latest Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports. It was also just announced that Rep. Moore will get a major funding boost. A crypto currency Super PAC is reportedly forming to launch a $5 million effort to help the Congressman in his Senate race. The eventual Republican nominee will become a prohibitive favorite to win the general election.
Illinois: Two polls both showing US Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumberg) leading the Democratic primary were released last week. Public Policy Polling, surveying for the Lt. Governor’s Association that backs Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (2/2-4; 574 IL likely Democratic primary voters; live interview and text), finds Rep. Krishnamoorthi’s advantage to be 34-23-8% over Lt. Gov. Stratton and US Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), respectively. Victory Research, in an earlier poll (surveying for the Illinois Politics Blog; 1/21-25; 806 IL likely Democratic primary voters), found the Krishnamoorthi margin to be 32-21-11% over Stratton and Kelly. The Congressman has consistently led this race from the beginning, and he will likely be victorious in the March 17 Illinois Democratic primary. he eventual general election winner will succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D).
Kentucky: The Fabrizio Lee & Associates research firm conducted a poll for businessman Nate Morris’ campaign and finds their sponsor pulling into range of creating a three-way Republican May 19 primary race for the party nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R). According to the survey (1/27-29; 800 KY likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text), former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron continues to lead the race but within a much closer margin. The ballot test yields a 29-21-18% split with US Rep. Andy Barr* (R-Lexington) and Mr. Morris trailing. Emerson College, however, finds a completely different result. Their survey (1/31-2/1; 523 KY likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects Rep. Barr holding the lead, 24-21-14%, over Messrs. Cameron and Morris, respectively. While Mr. Cameron performs well in polling, he badly trails in fundraising. Rep. Barr has raised just under $6.5 million, while Mr. Morris has over $6 million in receipts with $4.4 million of that figure coming from himself. Mr. Cameron has pulled in only $1.6 million with just over $600,000 in his campaign account. Rep. Barr has more than $6 million cash-on-hand, and Mr. Morris is the beneficiary of a $10 million Super PAC that Elon Musk has largely funded.
Louisiana: A BPDC survey for the Julia Letlow campaign (1/20-22; 600 LA likely Republican primary voters), taken before the candidate entered the race, posts the northeastern Louisiana Congresswoman to a 27-21-14% edge over Sen. Bill Cassidy* and LA Treasurer John Fleming. The campaign is evolving into a three-way contest. St. Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia) announced that he is ending his effort and instead entering Rep. Letlow’s open 5th District Republican primary. Immediately, the Club for Growth organization announced their endorsement for Sen. Miguez. Additionally, St. Tammany Parish Councilwoman Kathy Seiden (R) also exited the race. The Louisiana primary is scheduled for May 16. If no one receives majority support, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff election on June 27.
Minnesota: A new Emerson College poll (2/6-8; 1,000 MN likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds Republican former national sportscaster Michele Tafoya climbing into competitive range. Though trailing, this ballot test projects her within six and seven points of Democratic Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan and US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake). Contrasting the data, the Governor’s question finds US Senator Amy Klobuchar (D) running with over 50% support against all potential Republican nominees.
New Hampshire: President Donald Trump announced his endorsement of former US Senator John E. Sununu (R) in his bid for the open New Hampshire Senate seat. The decision came as a blow to former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown’s hopes for the Republican nomination, especially since the latter man was a Trump appointee in his first Administration. For the Democrats, US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is the consensus party candidate. The New Hampshire primary is one of the latest in the country, September 8. Incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is not seeking a fourth term.
Texas: A series of political surveys conducted in late January and early February are now in the public domain, and we again see data suggesting that four-term Sen. John Cornyn is virtually assured of being forced into a runoff election once votes are cast and counted in the March 3 Texas Republican primary. Four new polls have been released, and while each produces different ballot test numbers the conclusion is similar: that is, we will see two of the three major contenders, Sen. Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), advancing into a secondary nomination election on May 26. The difference between these and other polls is that Mr. Hunt is gaining enough momentum to position himself to possibly make the runoff.
U.S. House of Representatives
AL-1: Former Congressman Jerry Carl (R), who lost his seat when he and Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) were paired after a court-ordered redistricting in 2024, appears headed back to Congress. Mr. Carl released his internal AM Research Group poll (1/31-2/2; sample size and methodology not publicized) that sees him posting a 43% preference figure. His closest opponent, state Rep. Rhett Marques (R-Enterprise), only reaches a 7% support level.
CA-3: US Rep. Kevin Kiley* (R-Rocklin/Sacramento) announced that he will not seek re-election in the state’s newly drawn Democratic 3rd District where he would battle current 6th District Congressman Ami Bera (D-Sacramento). Mr. Kiley says he will announce his re-election campaign at a later date. It is likely he will challenge fellow US Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove) in a safely Republican district. He could also run in the new open 6th District that houses more of the city of Sacramento, but this seat is also strongly Democratic.
CA-43: Myla Rahman, a liberal non-profit organization executive who was running for the state Assembly, announced that instead she will file against veteran US Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Los Angeles). Her move will likely lead to a cycle-long campaign as both she and Waters will likely qualify for the general election. Ms. Rahman is already drawing a contrast with Rep. Waters on the age issue. The Congresswoman is seeking re-election at 87 years of age, while Ms. Rahman says she is a more energetic 53-year-old who is closer to the local community.
CT-3: Attorney Damjan DeNoble has ended his Democratic primary challenge to veteran US Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-New Haven). This was one of more than a dozen challenges from younger Democrats against veteran House members beyond age 70. Rep. DeLauro is 82 years of age and has been in the House since 1991. It remains to be seen just how many of these challenges eventually prove successful.
FL-20: A new Listener Group survey conducted for the Political Matrix News (2/2-4; 300 FL-20 likely Democratic primary voters) confirms that indicted two-term US Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Miramar) trails in her bid for renomination. Community organizer Elijah Manley posts a 38-35-10% lead over Rep. Cerfilus-McCormick and former Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness. Also expected to join the race is local Hip Hop artist and former mayoral candidate Luther Campbell.
GA-11: Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Cassville), saying that holding a congressional seat is a service and not a career, announced that he will not seek a 7th term in the House later this year. Prior to being elected to Congress in 2014, Mr. Loudermilk served eight years in the Georgia legislature. Over his six congressional elections, Mr. Loudermilk averaged a 69.6% voter support level. The open 11th District will remain in Republican hands, and a crowded GOP field will soon form.
IN-7: Attorney Destiny Wells, the former Democratic nominee for Secretary of State in 2022 and Attorney General in 2024, announced that she will challenge US Rep. Andre Carson (D-Indianapolis) for renomination. Rep. Carson was first elected in a 2008 special election to replace his grandmother, veteran Congresswoman Julia Carson (D) who had passed away. The Congressman will be favored to win renomination and the general election.
MA-4: Former Wall Street regulator Ihssane Leckey (D), who ran for the 4th District seat in 2020, announced she will return in this cycle. She will challenge now three-term incumbent Jake Auchincloss (D-Newton). Considering that the Congressman already has almost $7 million in his campaign account, Ms. Leckey faces a major challenge in the September 1st Democratic primary.
NE-2: The Nebraska candidate filing deadline for incumbents and office holders seeking different offices has now passed, so we are beginning to see how the Cornhusker State ballot will form. The only change in the federal outlook from previous elections is that Rep. Don Bacon* (R-Papillion/Omaha), following through on his earlier announced retirement, did not file for re-election. Current office holders who did file to replace Rep. Bacon include Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding (R), state Sen. John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha) & Douglas County District Court Clerk Crystal Rhoades (D). Nebraska has a three-tiered filing process. Incumbents and office holders filing for different positions file first. Non-office holders will file their campaigns on or before March 1, and non-major party candidates have until August 3 to gather the required number of signatures for ballot line acquisition. The purpose of this filing system is to guard against incumbents not announcing their retirements in order to allow their favored successor to file with virtually no opposition.
NV-2: Ending what will be a 30-year career in elective and party politics when this Congress concludes, Nevada US Rep. Mark Amodei* (R-Carson City) announced that he will not seek a ninth term in the House later this year. The congressman was first elected to federal office in a 2011 special election after then-US Rep. Dean Heller (R) was appointed to the Senate. Prior to winning the US House seat, he served 14 years in the Nevada legislature. The open 2nd District is expected to remain Republican.
NJ-11: Democratic Socialist Analila Mejia is now the official winner of the 11th District special election, which ended in a close contest between she and former 7th District US Rep. Tom Malinowski (D). During the campaign, state Assemblywoman Rosie Bagolie (D) indicated that she was considering running in the regular election and against the person who would win the April 16 special general, now presumably Ms. Mejia. Assemblywoman Bagolie has since backed away from such a plan. Conversely, former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way (D), who finished third in the special election, reportedly is considering whether to wage a regular election primary challenge to Ms. Mejia. The New Jersey candidate filing deadline is March 23 for the associated June 2 primary election. Therefore, this district will still be attracting political attention at least through the candidate filing period.
NY-3: Former state Assemblyman Mike LiPetri (R), who in 2024 came surprisingly close to Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove), announced that he will return for a rematch later this year. In the previous election, Mr. LiPetri held Rep. Suozzi to a 52-48% victory margin, a respectable challenger finish considering he was outspent in a 7:1 ratio. It is likely that Mr. LiPetri will attract some outside support in this election because of his past performance.
NY-19: Former Congressman Marc Molinaro (R), who lost his seat in 2024 to freshman Rep. Josh Riley (D-Ithaca), announced that he will resign from his Trump Administration appointment to the Federal Transit Administration to instead run for an open state Assembly seat. There was speculation Mr. Molinaro would launch a return run for the congressional seat. The Republican leadership was clear, however, in their support for state Sen. Peter Oberacker (R-Maryland) who already has President Donald Trump’s endorsement. Speculation also included Mr. Molinaro possibly running for retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-Schuylerville) open 21st District, but that idea was quelled when Republican leaders announced their backing for state Assemblyman Robert Smullen (R-Mohawk Valley).
NC-1: An AI support group is forming an unusual Super PAC that is obviously centered only around the endorsed candidate’s position over light regulation pertaining to artificial intelligence. The group is reportedly planning to invest $500,000 to support Republican 2024 congressional nominee Laurie Buckhout in her comeback attempt against US Rep. Don Davis* (D-NC).
TX-18: Recent polling finds new Congressman Christian Menefee (D-Houston) posting a commanding lead over veteran US Rep. Al Green (D-Houston), despite the latter man representing 65% of the new 18th District’s constituency as compared to just 26% from the district where Mr. Menefee just won a special election. Lake Research Partners released their poll (2/2-8; 430 TX-18 likely Democratic primary voters; online and text) that posts Rep. Menefee to a 49-29-7% lead over Rep. Green and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards. Weighing her chances after losing in a landslide to Rep. Menefee in the January 31 special election, Ms. Edwards has now suspended her regular election campaign thus effectively dropping out of the race. The Texas primary is March 3. If no one receives majority support, the top two finishers will advance to a May 26 runoff election. Retired Defense and Intelligence analyst Gretchen Brown remains in the Democratic primary contest.
TX-34: Attorney Eric Flores (R), who has President Trump’s support, is running new primary ads attacking former US Rep. Mayra Flores for losing two elections to US Rep. Vicente Gonzalez* (D-McAllen). The ads are a bit unfair in that she lost to Rep. Gonzalez in a previous district that was designed to elect a Democrat, yet she ran far ahead of the previous Republican benchmarks. The Flores vs. Flores (the two are not related) battle will prove to be an interesting primary on March 3. The eventual Republican nominee will face Rep. Gonzalez, but this time in a much more Republican friendly CD.
Governorships
Alaska: Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), who had not ruled out entering her state’s open Governor’s race, said to reporters that she will not run later this year and restated her commitment to serve Alaskans in the US Senate. The Senator’s decision looks to lay the groundwork for an interesting 2028 campaign, however. Term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) has already said he plans to challenge Sen. Murkowski in the next election.
Arizona: 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson (R), who President Trump co-endorsed along with US Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert), ended her campaign. Ms. Robson said she did not want to divide the party through a tough primary. Therefore, Rep. Biggs is becoming the consensus GOP candidate to oppose Gov. Katie Hobbs (D).
Georgia: Billionaire Rick Jackson (R), a major Trump political donor, announced that he will enter the already crowded open Georgia Republican gubernatorial primary that features Lt. Governor Burt Jones, Attorney General Chris Carr, and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. Mr. Jackson says he will spend $50 million of his own money on his campaign. For the Democrats, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms appears to be the leading candidate for the party nomination.
New Mexico: Former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima announced that he is exiting the Democratic primary but will continue his gubernatorial campaign as an Independent. The leading Democratic candidates are former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Deb Haaland and Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman. Incumbent Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
New York: Gov. Kathy Hochul easily won her party’s endorsement at the New York Democratic state convention with an 85-15% delegate vote victory over Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado. Because Mr. Delgado fell below the 25% support threshold at the convention, he must access the ballot through petition signatures. To qualify for a ballot line, Mr. Delgado must submit 15,000 valid signatures by April 6. Instead, the Lt. Governor decided to end his campaign, saying he no longer has “a path to victory.”
Oregon: FM3 Research tested the upcoming Oregon Governor’s race where incumbent Tina Kotek (D) is seeking a second term. The poll (1/28-2/4; 1,065 OR likely general election voters) tested Gov. Kotek against three prospective Republican opponents. The contender faring best is the woman who ran a close race against Ms. Kotek in 2022, state Sen. Christine Drazan (R-Canby). The ballot test in this paring is 45-40% in the Governor’s favor. State Rep. Ed Diehl (R-Stayton) trails 43-37%, and former NBA basketball player and 2010 gubernatorial nominee Chris Dudley (R) is behind 45-35%. The fact that Gov. Kotek fails to reach 50% support against any Republican candidate suggests that Oregon voters could produce a competitive gubernatorial contest later this year.
South Carolina: The National Public Affairs polling organization released a new survey (2/2-5; 800 SC likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) of the South Carolina electorate. In a battle of conflicting polls, NPA’s results find Attorney General Alan Wilson leading 23-17-16-12-2% over US Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), Lt. Governor Pamela Evette, US Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), and state Senator Josh Kimbrell (R-Spartanburg). Other recent polls have found both Lt. Gov. Evette and Rep. Mace leading the crowded field. The South Carolina primary is scheduled for June 9. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers will advance to a quick secondary election scheduled for June 23.
State & Local
Arizona: Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) signed legislation moving the state’s primary from August 4 of this year to July 21. The measure also sets future primaries for the second to last Tuesday in July. The new law takes effect immediately, so the 2026 Arizona primary date has now officially moved.
California Redistricting: The US Supreme Court rejected a Republican appellate motion claiming the new California congressional redistricting map is a racial gerrymander. This means the new plan, where Democrats believe they can gain an additional five seats from the 52-member delegation, will be in effect for the 2026 election.
Maryland Redistricting: The Maryland House of Delegates passed a congressional redistricting map that could yield an 8D-0R delegation. State Senate President Bill Ferguson (D-Baltimore) reiterates that he is opposed to redistricting saying that an 8D-0R map could actually endanger two Democratic incumbents. He says the bill will not be scheduled for a vote.
New York Redistricting: Republicans have appealed the lower court ruling declaring the state’s 11th District a racial gerrymander under the New York Voting Rights Act. This is the first time that a congressional redistricting case has been challenged under such a state law. Under New York procedure, an appeal automatically stays the previous decision, so the order to redraw the district by the end of last week is suspended.
