July 29, 2025
U.S. Senate
Alabama: Alabama US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) has scheduled what he is terming “a Big Announcement,” for August 15 and the supposition is he will declare his candidacy for the state’s open US Senate seat. The major clue is the festival-type event he is holding in the city of Sylvania, which is in the northeastern sector and about as far from his southern Alabama congressional district one can get and still be within the state.
Assuming Rep. Moore runs for the Senate, his major Republican opponent, to date, will be Attorney General Steve Marshall who is ineligible to seek a third term for his current position. Others are expected to join. The eventual Republican nominee will become the prohibitive favorite to win the general election.
Georgia: Reports from the Peach State where correct indicating that US Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) would soon declare his US Senate candidacy. The congressman made it official on Monday joining the Republican field. US Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee) then announced that he will not run for the Senate. US Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) and state Sen. Colton Moore (R-Trenton) are current Republican candidates. The top fundraiser of the group is Rep. Carter, who already has over $4 million in his campaign account, far more than any of his Republican opponents. Agriculture Commissioner John King (R) was in the race but dropped out late last week when Gov. Brian Kemp (R) made it known that he would support former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley (R) in the race.
The eventual Republican nominee will challenge first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), who is the leading money raiser in the country so far this cycle, and commands a campaign account of over $15 million. The Georgia race is the Republicans’ top conversion opportunity campaign.
Michigan: US Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) who had been testing the waters for an open Senate bid, announced that he will not enter the statewide race and is likely to seek re-election in his 4th Congressional District. Republican leaders had been striving to clear the Senate nomination field for former Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers who came within 19,006 votes (three-tenths of one percentage point) of scoring an upset win last November, and now it appears their goal has been achieved. The Huizenga decision allows Mr. Rogers to avoid issuing major expenditures during the primary cycle and to pool the resources he does have for just one campaign, while his Democratic opponents must fight for the party nomination until August 4, 2026.
New Hampshire: Former Massachusetts US Senator Scott Brown (R) now has a New Hampshire US Senate Republican primary challenger. State Sen. Dan Innis (R-Bradford), who has previously run for federal office, declared that he will compete for the GOP Senate nomination. Sen. Innis has been elected from two Senate districts during his career, one in the Seacoast region, and the other, his current seat, in the middle part of the state just northwest of the state’s capital city of Concord. Sen. Innis is also a business owner and the former dean of business studies at the University of New Hampshire.
The eventual Republican nominee will begin the race against consensus Democratic candidate, US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester), as a decided underdog. Three-term Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is retiring.
North Carolina: Key questions were answered in the North Carolina Senate race. Former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) made it official by entering the state’s open Senate race. Mr. Cooper, who was elected four times as North Carolina’s Attorney General and then twice as Governor, was clearly the party’s first choice to run for the Senate and even more so after incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis (R) announced that he would not seek a third term. Former US Rep. Wiley Nickel (D), who was a declared Democratic Senate candidate, stepped aside and endorsed Gov. Cooper.
Almost immediately after the Cooper story broke, presidential daughter-in-law Lara Trump (R), after saying that she would decide about the Senate race before Thanksgiving, announced that she will not run, prompting Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley (R) to declare his candidacy.
The head-turning action ended with President Donald Trump (R) immediately announcing his support for Mr. Whatley. The Tar Heel State Senate race will be one of the most important campaigns of the 2026 election cycle.
U.S. House of Representatives
AL-01: Former Congressman Jerry Carl (R), who lost his seat in the 2024 Republican primary when he was paired with Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) after a court-ordered redistricting, says he is “highly likely” to run for an open 1st Congressional District should Rep. Moore enter the Senate race in August as expected. Mr. Carl would begin an open congressional campaign as the favorite to capture the Republican nomination and the seat in November of 2026.
CA-09: Former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R) announced that he will return to again challenge US Rep. Josh Harder (D-Tracy). In 2024, Mr. Lincoln held Rep. Harder to a 52-48% win in one of 13 congressional districts that President Trump carried but elected a Democrat to the House of Representatives. This will again be a competitive race in 2026.
CA-21: Retired Army Colonel Lorenzo Rios announced he will compete for the Republican nomination to challenge veteran US Rep. Jim Costa (D-Fresno), who has been in elected office since 1979 when adding his time in the state legislature with his congressional service. The Fresno anchored 21st CD is becoming more competitive. Rep. Costa has twice defeated former FBI agent Michael Maher (R) with percentage wins in the low 50s in both the 2022 and 2024 elections. Mr. Maher is not likely to return for a third attempt.
CA-22: Assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains (D-Bakersfield), criticizing veteran Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) for voting in favor of the One Big Beautiful Bill that she claims will cut Medicaid benefits for a district’s constituency where 60% of the residents are in the program, announced her congressional candidacy. The 22nd District carries a partisan lean of 55.5D – 42.6R according to the Dave’s Redistrict App statisticians, thus making it one of the most Democratic districts in the country to elect a Republican to the House. As usual, this will be a highly competitive campaign next year. Three other Democrats, including two-time congressional candidate and ex-Assemblyman Rudy Salas, are also in the race.
CO-01: Former corporate attorney Melot Kiros, who was fired from her law firm for “calling for the elimination of the state of Israel,” announced that she will launch a Democratic primary challenge to 15-term incumbent US Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Denver). The Congresswoman will remain a heavy favorite for renomination and re-election in Colorado’s strongest Democratic congressional seat.
CO-08: In a district designed to revert between the parties, a ninth Democrat, venture capitalist and Marine Corps veteran Evan Munsing announced his campaign. The Democratic field vying to challenge freshman Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Fort Lupton) includes former Congresswoman Yadira Caraveo, State Treasurer David Young, and two state Representatives among the nine contenders to date. One of the legislators, state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City), has already raised $1.6 million and has over $800,000 cash-on-hand. Rep. Evans has also raised $1.6 million for his re-election campaign and has a more substantial $1.5 million remaining in his campaign coffers. In contrast, Ms. Caraveo, who lost to Mr. Evans in November, raised only $214,000 since her 2026 announcement of candidacy.
CT-01: Veteran US Rep. John Larson (D-Hartford) has drawn his second Democratic primary opponent. Southington Town Councilman Jack Perry announced his candidacy, joining Hartford School Board Member Ruth Fortune in the party primary. Rep. Larson has yet to announce whether he will stand for a 15th term next year. The 1st District is heavily Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 60.8D – 38.8R; Harris ’24: 60.6 – 37.7%) so the party nominee will be the prohibitive favorite to hold the seat in November.
CT-03: Another Democratic primary challenge is emerging against a veteran incumbent who is advanced in years. Like others, Democratic attorney Damjan DeNoble plans to make veteran incumbent Rosa DeLauro’s (D-New Haven) age a key factor in his campaign. The Congresswoman will be 83 years of age at the time of Connecticut’s August primary election.
GA-13: Financial Services lobbyist Pierre Whatley became the eighth Democrat to announce a challenge to 12-term incumbent Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta). Though Rep. Scott says he will run for a 13th term, his health concerns have most political prognosticators believing that he will announce his retirement closer to the state candidate filing deadline next March. Among the top Democratic challengers are veteran state Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur), state Rep. Jasmine Clark (D-Lilburn), and former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair. The Atlanta metro 13th District seat is safely Democratic.
IL-07: Former Cook County Commissioner Richard Boykin became the sixth Democrat to announce a challenge to 83-year old veteran US Rep. Danny Davis (D-Chicago). The Congressman has yet to announce whether he will seek a 16th term. Rep. Davis has faced several primary challenges in his safely Democratic district, but the large number of opponents has allowed him to repeatedly win with a small majority. The only two 2026 Davis opponents with electoral experience are Mr. Boykin and state Rep. LaShawn Ford (D-Chicago).
IA-02: Kathryn Dolter, the former dean of nursing at Kirkwood Community College in Cedar Rapids, announced her candidacy for the Democratic congressional nomination to oppose Iowa US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids). On paper, the 2nd appears drawn as a competitive district, but Ms. Hinson has secured the seat over the past three elections and is already reporting a financial war chest of just under $3 million to begin another campaign. Earlier, Kevin Techau (D), a former US Attorney, ended his short lived campaign opposite Rep. Hinson citing his poor fundraising.
ME-02: Former Gov. Paul LePage (R), in a quick analysis from The Down Ballot political blog prognosticators, is the leading national GOP challenger fundraiser for the 2nd Quarter as he obtained over $556,000 in contributions. Mr. LePage is a consensus Republican candidate to challenge US Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston). Two June polls were released. The Mellman Group (6/4-10; 400 ME-2 likely voters) finds Rep. Golden leading Mr. LePage only 44-43%. In a more recent survey, the University of New Hampshire fielded a poll in Maine’s northern congressional district (6/19-23; 394 ME-2 registered voters) and sees the former Governor topping Rep. Golden, 50-47%. President Trump carried this district in all three of his elections. Rep. Golden was first elected in 2018 through the state’s Ranked Choice Voting system.
MA-06: Democratic US Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) has drawn a Democratic primary challenge from software engineer Bethany Andres-Beck, who plans to use the transgender issue as a major point against the Congressman. Mr. Moulton, an Iraq War veteran who has angered some Democrats with his criticism of some of the party’s positions such as men competing in women’s sports, will be favored for renomination and re-election.
MN-02: Four-term state Sen. Eric Pratt (R-Jordan), a one-time Trump critic but now supporter, announced that he will compete in the open 2nd Congressional District next year. Incumbent Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is running for the Senate.
NV-03: Las Vegas physician James Lally announced that he will challenge four-term Democratic US Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) in next year’s Democratic primary. Rep. Lee will be one of the Republicans’ top 2026 targets and six candidates are competing for the GOP nomination. In 2024, Rep. Lee was re-elected with only a 51.4 re-election percentage. The Dave Redistricting App partisan lean here is 51.7D – 43.7R, though President Trump carried the seat in 2024 with a 49.5 – 48.8% margin. The 2024 Republican nominee, policy analyst Drew Johnson, is not returning for another congressional run. Instead, he is running for State Treasurer.
NJ-09: Clifton City Councilwoman Rosie Pino announced that she will compete for the GOP nomination to challenge freshman New Jersey US Rep. Nellie Pou (D-Borough of North Haledon). Ms. Pino will face 2024 nominee Billy Prempeh in the GOP primary. Despite Mr. Prempeh spending less than $48,000 in a non-targeted open seat race, Ms. Pou, then a state Senator, only managed a 51-46% election victory in a surprising finish. Previously, Democratic Congressman Bill Pascrell, who passed away in August of 2024, had held the Paterson anchored district since the beginning of 1997. It is likely we will see substantial outside spending coming into this district for next year’s campaign
NY-17: Two-term US Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River), who had been considering entering the 2026 Governor’s race, announced he would forego a statewide run and will seek re-election to his politically marginal Upstate 17th Congressional District. Democrats have been busy in this seat preparing either for an open seat or another tight campaign against Rep. Lawler. A total of seven Democrats have already announced their candidacy. They will battle for the party nomination all the way through to the June 23rd primary election date.
PA-10: Former television news anchor and 2024 Democratic congressional nominee Janelle Stelson announced that she will return to again challenge seven-term US Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/ Harrisburg). The 2024 election ended in a 51-49% Perry victory. This will again be a top Democratic challenger race in 2026.
TN-07: While the special election to replace resigning Congressman Mark Green (R-Clarksville), has not yet been called, more individuals are making decisions about running in the upcoming campaign. While six Republicans and two Democrats have already announced, 2024 Democratic nominee and former Nashville Mayor Megan Barry indicated that she will not become a candidate in this election. State Rep. Vincent Dixie (D-Nashville) is the most recent Democrat to enter the race while state Rep. Jody Barrett (R-Dickson) is the latest Republican to declare. State Rep. Jay Reedy (R-Erin) has already dropped out after initially announcing his candidacy.
TX-02: State Representative Steve Toth (R-Spring) announced that he will launch a GOP primary challenge against four-term Texas US Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Houston). Rep. Toth is the seventh Republican to enter the congressional primary, but the only elected official. The field could change if the proposed congressional redistricting map alters the 2nd District, which is likely. For his part, Rep. Crenshaw, known for bluntly speaking his mind, said about Rep. Toth, “I don’t have much to say about Steve Toth—because there’s not much to say.”
TX-15: Emergency physician Ada Cuellar announced that she will compete for the Democratic nomination to challenge two-term US Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen) next year. The 15th CD stretches from just northeast of San Antonio all the way to the Mexican border and holds a Voting Age Population figure of 79% Hispanic, yet Rep. De La Cruz garnered 57% in her 2024 re-election effort. With a new redistricting map perhaps in place for the 2026 election, this district will likely become more Republican.
VA-05: Freshman Rep. John McGuire (R-Manakin-Sabot) has drawn both a re-match primary challenger and general election opponent for the 2026 election. In 2024, Mr. McGuire unseated then-US Rep. Bob Good in the Republican primary, and the former Congressman is returning to attempt a political comeback. In the general election, the eventual Republican nominee will likely face Albermarle County Supervisor Mike Pruitt, who is the lone announced Democratic candidate to date. Republicans will be favored to hold what is a reliably safe GOP seat.
Redistricting
Texas: Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has added congressional redistricting to the special legislative session issue call, meaning we will see a proposed new map shortly.
California: Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) attacks the move as a partisan power grab and threatens to run an emergency referendum through the legislature to eliminate the state’s California Citizens Redistricting Commission so the politicians can redraw the Golden State congressional boundaries. The goal is to neutralize any GOP gains from a new Texas map. The early shots suggest that we will see an intense national early redistricting season soon develop.
Governorships
Connecticut: Former state Rep. Josh Daniels filed papers with the state elections office to launch a Democratic primary challenge against Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont. It is expected the Governor will run for a third term, but he has not yet announced his 2026 political intentions. If Mr. Lamont runs, he will be a clear favorite for renomination and re-election.
Maine: Josh Bush, a nephew of former President George H.W. Bush and cousin to ex-President George W. Bush, has filed an exploratory committee for the 2026 Maine Governor’s campaign. Mr. Bush supported presidential candidate Nikki Haley in 2024, and says he hopes to deliver a moderate voice in the GOP primary should he decide to run. In the GOP race are former Assistant US Secretary of State Bobby Charles, state Sen. Jim Libby (R-Standish), University of Maine Trustee Owen McCarthy, and Paris Town Selectman Robert Wessels.
Former Republican state Senator Rick Bennett (I-Raymond) is running as an Independent. The major Democratic candidates are Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, businessman Angus King, III, son of US Sen. Angus King (I), ex-state Senate President Troy Jackson, and former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland). Gov. Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Minnesota: Former state Senator and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Scott Jensen announced he will return to challenge Governor and 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz who is expected to seek a third term. Three years ago, the Governor defeated Mr. Jensen, 52-45%. Gov. Walz would be favored in such a repeat campaign, but GOP chances to make the race closer have improved. The governor has said that he will not run for president in 2028 if he seeks a third term.
Nevada: Washoe County (Reno) Commission chair Alexis Hill became the second Democrat to announce her gubernatorial candidacy. Ms. Hill joins Attorney General Aaron Ford in the party primary. The eventual party nominee, and Mr. Ford is favored, will challenge Gov. Joe Lombardo (R).
New Jersey: A KA Consulting poll (6/24-27; 800 NJ likely and registered voters; live interview) finds US Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) leading GOP gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli by a 47-42% clip, which is just beyond the polling margin of error. This survey result is another indication that we can expect a highly competitive statewide campaign to culminate in early November. Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Virginia: Fundraising numbers have been made public for the 2025 Virginia Governor’s race and Democratic former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger has a large resource advantage over Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R). According to the disclosure reports, Ms. Spanberger outraised Ms. Earle-Sears $4.3 million to $2.4 million during the 2nd Quarter. Her cash-on-hand advantage is even more vast. Ms. Spanberger holds $15.2 million in her campaign account as compared to $4.6 million for Lt. Gov. Earle-Sears. The latter candidate’s fortunes are likely to improve, however. As President of the State Senate, she was unable to raise funds while the legislature was in session during the early part of this year.
Wisconsin: A surprise came from the Badger State as two-term Gov. Tony Evers (D) announced he will not seek a third term next year. Most believed he would run, but early fundraising falling below his previous benchmarks spurred speculation that maybe the Governor would retire. Without Mr. Evers on the ballot, both parties will be in upheaval and potential candidates in both parties will quickly begin to make some preliminary moves.
State and Local
Detroit: As the August 5 city primary election nears, Target Insyght polled Detroit mayoral voters (7/8-10; 400 Detroit registered voters) and again found City Council President Mary Sheffield leading her primary opponents. According to the ballot test result, Ms. Sheffield holds a 34-17-16-6-6% advantage over former Council President Saunteel Jenkins, Pastor Solomon Kinloch, City Councilman Fred Durhal, III, and retired Police Chief James Craig. Without any candidate receiving majority support in the first election, the top two finishers will advance to a general election in November.
Illinois: According to the Chicago Tribune, State Comptroller Susana Mendoza (D) has indicated she will not seek re-election to her statewide post and instead will launch a 2027 challenge to Democratic Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson. The controversial Mayor can expect a large number of opponents to file against him if he decides to seek re-election.
New York City: HarrisX poll (7/7-8; 585 NYC registered voters; online) finds Democratic Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani leading former Governor Andrew Cuomo (I), Republican Curtis Sliwa, and Mayor Eric Adams (I), 26-23-22-13%, respectively. Interestingly, if Mayor Adams were to drop out, Mr. Cuomo would assume first position with 31% as Mamdani and Sliwa would follow with 29 and 28 percentage preference figures. With so much national attention centered on this race, it appears a very close finish will be in store. Perhaps the biggest surprise in this poll is Republican frequent candidate Sliwa faring well considering Republican registration in the City is just 11 percent.
Orange County, FL: Former Florida US Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D), who served three terms in the House before retiring prior to the 2022 election, announced that she will return to elective politics with a run to succeed term-limited Democratic incumbent Jerry Demings (D) as the Orange County Executive. Mr. Demings is the husband of former Congresswoman and 2022 US Senate nominee Val Demings.
