The year-end Senate campaign finance figures are now public, thus giving us clues as to which incumbents are best prepared to wage their re-election efforts.

A high cash-on-hand number suggests an engaged incumbent ready to launch a campaign for another six-year term. A lesser number might be an indication of an incumbent potentially retiring at the end of the current Congress, and thus not planning to seek re-election.

Though not likely facing a competitive 2024 battle, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (I) ended the year with the most cash-on-hand of any in-cycle incumbent with well over $9.7 million.

The Senator who has the highest account balance while facing a competitive challenge is West Virginia’s Joe Manchin (D). He appears to have the most difficult re-election path of any in-cycle Senate incumbent considering his state party is in a distinct minority; and, entering a presidential election cycle, partisan loyalties tend to intensify. In his two-congressional district state, Sen. Manchin posts just over a whopping $9.5 million in his campaign account.

Conversely, the two Senators with the lowest cash-on-hand figures are Mitt Romney (R-UT) with $3,569, and Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) who holds just $9,968.

Sen. Romney indicated several weeks ago that he is considering seeking re-election, but the lack of campaign activity as reflected in an extremely low campaign account cash balance suggests he may retire. He is likely to face a competitive race, but for renomination as opposed to re-election. Therefore, he will have to run a major campaign if he is to win a second term. Sen. Romney being wealthy, however, suggests that he can easily pump dollars into his campaign war chest should he decide to run again. Therefore, the current low cash balance is not necessarily indicative of what may be his future Senate career decision.

On the other hand, Sen. Feinstein, who will be 91 years of age before the next election, appears a sure bet to retire. Heavy activity is already underway in California to replace her, as if the seat was already open. Reps. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) are already announced and campaigning in anticipation of the state’s jungle primary, which will be run concurrently with the Super Tuesday presidential calendar. In this cycle, Super Tuesday has been pegged for March 5, 2024. For her part, Sen. Feinstein says she will make an announcement about her re-election plans when the weather turns warmer in the Spring.

Another key Senator to watch who says he will decide “before the first quarter ends” whether to seek a fourth term is Montana’s Jon Tester (D). Like Sen. Manchin, Mr. Tester faces a presidential election year turnout model and voting trend that significantly cuts against his party. Considering he won re-election in 2018, a strong Democratic year, with just a 50-47% margin means his path toward winning another six-year stint is challenging. Sen. Tester is ready, however, beginning with a cash balance of almost $4.5 million.

Another Senator on the political hot seat because of adverse voting trends for his party within the state electorate is Ohio’s Sherrod Brown (D). Unlike Sens. Manchin and Tester, Sen. Brown is off and running for another term, and posts just over $3 million in his campaign account. Considering that Ohio is a large state, however, suggests that Sen. Brown must quickly and substantially increase his campaign income.

Another Senator on the campaign resource low side is Maryland’s Ben Cardin (D). On the ballot for what will be a fourth term when he will be 81 years of age and showing less than $400,000 raised during the entire current six-year term suggests that he may be considering retiring. Though Sen. Cardin does not face a particularly difficult re-election situation, one would surmise needing more than $1 million in a campaign account to discourage potential intra-party Democratic opponents would be a prudent move if he were planning to run again.

Below is the chart of the monies raised since the 2018 election and the cash-on-hand figure as of December 31, 2022 for all in-cycle Senate incumbents. The members are listed in the order of having the most cash-on-hand to the least.

The chart does not include the two Senators who are not seeking re-election, Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) and Mike Braun (R-IN). The latter man is running for Governor instead of seeking a second term in the Senate. Newly appointed Senator Pete Ricketts (R-NE) is also not included because he is not yet required to file a campaign disclosure report.