GOP Averts Upset as Van Epps Wins TN-7
In what was turning into the most important special congressional election of the latter half of 2025, former state cabinet official and Afghan War veteran Matt Van Epps scored a 53.9 – 45.0% victory last night over state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) securing the district for the GOP and avoiding a Democratic partisan upset of national proportions. The last published poll, from Emerson College (11/22-24; 600 TN-7 likely special
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U.S. Senate Michigan: Countering a Rosetta Stone poll (10/23-25; 637 MI likely general election voters) released recently that found former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers (R) leading all potential Democratic nominees beyond the polling margin of error, regular Michigan pollster EPIC-MRA (released 11/14; 600 MI likely general election voters) finds a different result. From their data, both U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) would
Texas Polls Tighten as Redistricting Turmoil Grows
New polling data was just released in Texas that confirms what many observers have opined about the Lone Star State’s U.S. Senate campaign, and a scathing dissent from one of the three-judge panel members who heard the latest redistricting case could pave the way for a Supreme Court stay. U.S. Senate Ragnar Research (Nov. 12-17; 1,000 likely Texas voters; live interview) released a new Texas U.S. Senate poll that
Rep. Nehls to Retire, Adding to Texas Open Seat Surge
After what will be only three terms in Congress, Texas U.S. Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Richmond) surprisingly announced over the weekend that he will not seek re-election next year. Though Mr. Nehls is under a House Ethics Committee investigation under allegations that he used some of his campaign money for personal gain, there was unsurprisingly no mention of that situation in his retirement announcement. Now that Rep. Nehls has indicated
GA-14 and NJ-11 Prepare for Special Elections After New Vacancies
Governors in two states are making moves to calendar elections to fill new congressional vacancies in their states. With Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) resigning her congressional seat to prepare for her swearing in as the Garden State governor, and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) declaring that she will leave Congress on Jan. 5, two more districts will soon host special elections. Since this Congress began, we have seen four
House Vacancies Rise as Reps. Greene, Swalwell, and Velazquez Confirm Departures
Three more U.S. House seats became open late last week, from Georgia, California and New York. GA-14: The recent feud between former staunch allies President Donald Trump and Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) has culminated with the latter resigning from office. In her resignation announcement, Rep. Greene said, “I have too much self-respect and dignity, love my family way too much, and do not want my sweet district
Van Epps Leads Narrowly as TN-7 Special Election Comes Into Focus
Signs are prevalent that the special election in western Tennessee’s 7th Congressional district will be closer than the region’s voting history suggests. An Emerson College pre-election survey (11/22-24; 600 TN-7 likely special election voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds Republican Matt Van Epps, a former cabinet official in Gov. Bill Lee’s (R) administration, leading state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) by only a 48-46% margin. This, in a district that both
TX Map Scrapped As Redistricting Chaos Spreads
The already complicated 2025 national redistricting scene grew even more complex when a three judge federal panel in El Paso ruled, in a 2–1 decision, that the new Texas congressional map is a racial gerrymander and therefore voided. The panel ordered the previous 2021 map reinstated. If allowed to stand, the ruling will greatly disrupt the Texas political cycle as candidates prepare for the early March 3, 2026 primary.
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U.S. Senate Kentucky: Well-known racing horse trainer Dale Romans announced that he will compete for Kentucky’s open Democratic U.S. Senate nomination. In the primary he will face retired Marine Corps officer and 2020 U.S.Senate nominee Amy McGrath, who proved herself a strong fundraiser but lacking as a candidate. She was also defeated in a 2018 congressional race. Mr. Romans may have the resources to seriously compete with McGrath for
Dems Gain Seat in Utah Redistricting
Last week, the Utah presiding state judge chose a new congressional map that will significantly change the Beehive State delegation. Previously, Judge Dianna Gibson (D) had invalidated the current map drawn in 2021 because she maintained the legislature ignored criteria that voters approved through a ballot initiative. The Utah state Supreme Court then upheld her opinion. The result included bringing forth maps that adhered to the missing criteria. Judge
CA Redistricting Shakeup Produces New Vulnerabilities
The Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) statistical organization released their data figures for the new 52 California redistricted congressional districts, and their non-partisan analysis may not be quite as rosy for the Democrats as Gov. Gavin Newsom and the party leaders have boasted. The DRA is the only data organization that has already calculated a clear partisan division for all of the new Golden State districts. Several Democratic incumbents, and surprisingly
Rep. Arrington Joins Wave of House Departures
The number of U.S. House members announcing they won’t seek re-election next year is beginning to form a cavalcade. Five-term Texas U.S. Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Lubbock), chairman of the House Budget Committee, recently announced that he won’t seek re-election next year. In his retirement announcement, Rep. Arrington said, “I believe, as our founding fathers did, in citizen leadership – temporary service, not a career; and, it’s time to do
New NC Senate Data Shows Early Dem Edge
A new Harper Polling survey of North Carolina likely voters produced positive numbers for Democrats, but other factors suggest the open Senate race is far from over. Harper projects former Governor Roy Cooper (D) to a lead beyond the polling margin of error for the 2026 Senate race. The underlying numbers, however, suggest that the Tar Heel State electorate could again generate another of its typically close finishes on
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U.S. Senate Florida: A University of North Florida statewide poll gives us the first glimpse as to how appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R) would fare in a general election. The survey (10/15-25; 728 FL likely 2026 general election voters; live interview) finds Sen. Moody comfortably ahead of former Brevard County School Board member Jennifer Jenkins by a 49-38% clip as the registration figures between Republicans and Democrats continues to
As Democrats Gain in Blue States, Republicans Eye Indiana
It appears we are seeing another state poised to join the mid-decade redistricting wars as an active participant. Indiana Gov. Mike Braun (R) summoned the legislature back into session to work several issues and congressional redistricting is expected to be among them. It is now clear that Indiana will play a major role in how the new redistricting wave unfolds. Developments favorable to Democrats in certain other states have
Stefanik Tops Hochul in Deep Blue New York
Unofficial 2026 New York gubernatorial candidate Elise Stefanik, the North Country (NY-21) Republican Congresswoman, has taken a small lead over Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) according to a Manhattan Institute survey. The poll (10/22-26; 900 NY likely voters; live interview & text) finds Ms. Stefanik carrying a 43-42% edge over the governor who is seeking a second full four-year term. The margin is more significant that a simple one-point lead,
New Ohio Map Strengthens GOP Hand
Ohio’s unique redistricting process ended as quickly as it began. The Buckeye State’s seven-member redistricting commission, which is comprised of elected officials from both parties and includes Gov. Mike DeWine (R), unanimously passed a new congressional map. The act of the commissioners reaching a bipartisan consensus vote means the map becomes law and does not go to the legislature for approval. The plan will now stand for the remainder
A Blue Surge in Familiar Territory
The recent election results produced broad victories for Democrats across the board, and it appears that high prices and the state of the economy are among the top reasons. Of course, Democrats will argue that their attacks against President Donald Trump compared to the election results is a rejection of the current administration, and the votes provide evidence for such a claim, but New Jersey and New York City
Cash on Hand: 2026 Senate Snapshot
The Federal Election Commission has released new Senate campaign finance numbers that help us preview the resource standing of the key 2026 U.S. Senate contests. This update covers the most competitive campaigns from Alabama through Texas. Alabama: Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) running for governor has opened the in-cycle Senate contest, and the Republican primary will be the determinative election. Attorney General Steve Marshall, U.S. Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), and
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U.S. Senate Florida: Ex-Google executive and investor Hector Mujica (D) announced his U.S. Senate candidacy hoping to oppose appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R). Democrats have been searching for a candidate to oppose Sen. Moody in the special election to fill the unexpired term. Because then-Sen. Marco Rubio (R) was appointed Secretary of State, a special election must be held concurrently with the next regular election. The winner would
Primary Overhaul Puts Cassidy on the Defensive
Louisiana U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy has drawn another Republican primary opponent. While it appears that his most serious potential challengers continue to remain on the political sidelines, such may soon change. St. Tammany Parish Councilwoman Kathy Seiden announced that she will join the growing group of Cassidy primary opponents. Already in the race are State Treasurer, ex-Deputy White House chief of staff, and former U.S. Congressman John Fleming, state
Texas Democrats Cool on Allred
Former Congressman Colin Allred ran a strong 2024 Texas U.S. Senate campaign and was one of the nation’s top campaign fundraisers, but a new university survey finds him trailing an entire field of 2026 announced and potential Democratic candidates in the statewide party primary. The surprising poll result comes from a rather exhaustive study from a pair of Lone Star State universities who partnered in conducting the survey. The
Mills Takes Aim at Collins’ Sixth Term
Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) formally declared her intention to challenge veteran U.S. Sen. Susan Collins (R). The governor was Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s top choice to challenge Sen. Collins who overcame a massive attack campaign in 2020 to secure a fifth term. Sen. Collins was first elected in 1996 and has announced plans to run again for a sixth term next year. Gov. Mills was elected in
Louisiana Redistricting Returns to Supreme Court
The nine United States Supreme Court justices heard oral arguments for the second time on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case. How this case is decided could have a major impact on the 2026 U.S. House election cycle and in district elections throughout the remainder of the current decade. At issue is Louisiana’s 6th Congressional District that stretches from Baton Rouge to Shreveport. This CD was put in place before
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U.S. Senate Alabama: A former White House aide and ex-military advisor to Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) has entered the state’s open Senate race. Morgan Murphy now joins Attorney General Steve Marshall and U.S. Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) in vying for the Republican nomination. The eventual winner is a virtual sure bet to replace Sen. Tuberville, who is running for Governor instead of seeking re-election. Additionally, recently retired Auburn
Pelosi Faces Rising Challenge from Her Party’s New Generation
A Democratic challenger to Speaker Emeritus Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) released an internal poll that he says positions him to end her congressional career. Ms. Pelosi, then the California Democratic Party chair, began her tenure with a special election victory in 1987 that would eventually lead to eight years directing the U.S. House. Saikat Chakrabarti quarterbacked Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s shocking upset 2018 Democratic primary victory over veteran New York U.S. Rep.
Adams Exits, Mamdani Holds
The inevitable happened in the New York City Mayor’s race when the incumbent, Eric Adams, officially ended his campaign. How his withdrawal affects the race’s final month remains to be seen. Languishing in all polling, enduring a federal indictment process from which President Donald Trump pardoned him, unable to qualify for matching funds, and experiencing a tumultuous four years in office made the Mayor unelectable. In fact, his Democratic
Early Polls Hint at Pappas–Sununu Showdown
The University of New Hampshire recently released another of their regular Granite State polls, and we see further evidence of a budding competitive open New Hampshire U.S. Senate contest between U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) and former U.S. Senator John E. Sununu (R), son of former Governor and White House Chief of Staff John Sununu and brother of four-term NH Governor Chris Sununu. The UNH poll (9/17-23; 1,361 NH
Schweikert Leaves Swing Seat for Arizona Governor’s Race
Another House seat came open as eight-term Arizona U.S. Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/Scottsdale) announced that he will enter the competitive Republican primary for Governor. The House open seat count now grows, at least temporarily, to 33. Two more special elections will be held before the end of the year to fill vacancies in Tennessee and Texas. Rep. Schweikert’s 1st Congressional District becomes the third Republican open in the
Redistricting Wars Turn to North Carolina
The Tar Heel State of North Carolina appears positioned to join the national redistricting wars. The state has been redrawn more than any other since the 2010 census, and it looks like the legislature may again change the congressional district boundaries. North Carolina has a unique system where the Governor has no veto power over redistricting. Republicans have solid control of both legislative houses, which is all they need
Hunt Joins Cornyn–Paxton Duel for Texas Senate
As has been speculated upon for months, two-term U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) officially entered the 2026 Republican U.S. Senate primary. He joins a campaign that has been active for almost a year between GOP principal participants John Cornyn, the four-term incumbent, and three-term Attorney General Ken Paxton. Though Rep. Hunt only recently became an official candidate, a Super PAC supporting him has already spent an estimated $6 million,
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U.S. Senate Alabama: A recently released late August Alabama Senate survey (The Alabama Poll; 8/24-26; 600 AL likely Republican primary voters) again found Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) leading US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) by a substantial margin. The Alabama Poll posted AG Marshall to a 37-16% lead over Congressman Moore. In July, McLaughlin & Associates released a poll showing a similar 35-12% Marshall margin. The Alabama primary is
Political Redemption or Repeat Defeat? Former Lawmakers Seek Second Acts in 2026
Looking at the early congressional race announcements, we already see a number of former US House members either preparing or considering campaigns for the purpose of returning to their former position. At this point, we could see as many as ten ex-members embarking upon the campaign trail. Former Reps. Jerry Carl (R-AL), Hilda Solis (D-CA), Rod Blum (R-IA), Melissa Bean (D-IL), Andy Levin (D-MI), David Trott (I-MI), Madison Cawthorn
Georgia Senate Race Locked in a Dead Heat
As we know, the swing state of Georgia will be one of the key battleground 2026 US Senate domains, and a new statewide poll confirms the race will present challenges for both sides. The Quantus Insights Peach State poll finds first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) falling into a dead heat with one Republican US House member and leads another within the polling margin of error. Yet, as we have
Senate Shuffle: 2026 Could Usher in a Wave of New Faces
Without any incumbent losing in the 2026 election, it is possible we will see as many as a dozen new Senators come to Washington when the 120th Congress convenes. Obviously, the number will grow even higher should any incumbent fall to a challenger, and further retirements as state candidate filing deadlines begin to approach are of course possible. At this point, eight Senators have announced they will not seek
Mills vs. Collins: Maine Braces for a Political Heavyweight Showdown
Political reports are coming from the state of Maine saying that Democratic Gov. Janet Mills will soon announce her US Senate candidacy against five-term incumbent Susan Collins (R). The Democrats need to strongly compete in Maine to have any chance of re-capturing the Senate majority, and the party leadership has figuratively put the full-court candidate recruitment press on Gov. Mills during the past several months. While the party is apparently getting its preferred candidate, there
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U.S. Senate Iowa: As predicted, Iowa Republican US Sen. Joni Ernst who won her previous elections in 2014 and 2020, announced that she will not seek re-election next year. Immediately, and also as predicted, US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) entered the race for the now open Senate seat. Rep. Hinson will be a viable GOP candidate, so the party will still be in strong position to hold the
Utah Joins Redistricting Wars
A new court decision has thrust another state to the forefront of the mid-decade redistricting battle that may be developing in as many as eleven states. A Utah judge recently issued a ruling that strikes down the state’s 4R-0D congressional map, saying the legislature did not have the right to usurp the citizens’ redistricting commission that voters approved via ballot proposition in 2018. The commission members crafted a congressional
Padilla Could Shake Up Governor’s Race
During recent interviews, California Sen. Alex Padilla (D) has confirmed that he is considering entering the 2026 open Governor’s race. If he does, the contest will fundamentally change. While the Senator says he will not decide whether to run until the special redistricting election concludes in November, the clues we will see between now and then will reveal his ultimate intention. The fact that he is publicly not denying contemplating
After 17 Terms, Nadler to Retire from Congress
The US House open seat count, at least temporarily, rose to 30 as 17-term Empire State Congressman Jerrold Nadler (D-New York City) announced that he will not seek re-election next year. The decision ends a long New York political career which featured Mr. Nadler holding an elected office consecutively since the beginning of 1977 when adding his combined time in Congress and the New York State Assembly. In an
Could the Sununu Name Again Reshape New Hampshire Politics?
GOP leaders were unsuccessful with one Sununu, but they may get another. While national Republicans failed to recruit former Governor Chris Sununu into the open New Hampshire Senate race, ex-US Senator John E. Sununu, brother of the four-term Granite State chief executive, has been traveling throughout New Hampshire and confirms that entering the race is under consideration. Ex-Massachusetts Senator and 2014 New Hampshire Republican Senate nominee Scott Brown is
Iowa Shake-Up: Ernst’s Exit Opens Senate Path for Hinson
On the heels of Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) announcing her retirement, three-term US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) quickly declared her candidacy for the now open Iowa Senate seat. Rep. Hinson will be a strong statewide candidate. In the US House since 2021, a state Representative for two terms, and a Cedar Rapids ABC affiliate news anchor before running for office, Congresswoman Hinson has both the political and media
Special Election Season Begins
As we know, the House has four vacant seats with the first in a series of rapid special elections held today, September 9. In Virginia’s 11th District, the battle to replace the late US Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) will largely be anticlimactic. The VA-11 seat is heavily Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 67.2D – 30.7R; Harris ’24: 65.7 – 31.4%), so an easy win for Fairfax County Supervisor
Lone Star Shuffle: Who Runs Where in Texas 2026?
Now that the new Texas redistricting map has been signed into law, displaced Democratic incumbents and potential candidates are deciding where they will run. In the Dallas area, a game of political musical chairs must be played. All three Texas Democrats who currently represent part of Dallas County no longer live in the district for which they will likely run. It is probable that Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas), whose
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U.S. Senate Alabama: Alabama US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) made his expected entry into the open US Senate race official. He will at least compete against two-term Attorney General Steve Marshall in the Republican primary. The eventual party nominee will become the prohibitive favorite to win the general election. Rep. Moore’s move will open the state’s 1st Congressional District, yielding a competitive Republican primary. Georgia: The TIPP Poll organization
Cornyn Posts First Polling Lead Over Paxton in 2026 Primary
For the first time this year, US Senator John Cornyn has posted a polling lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton in their 2026 Texas Republican primary battle. Emerson College tested the Lone Star State electorate (8/11-12; 1,000 TX registered voters; 491 TX self-identified Republican voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the results project Sen. Cornyn only edging AG Paxton by a scant 30-29%, but the survey clearly shows positive movement
Sherrod Brown Plots 2026 Comeback in Ohio
Former Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown (D) recently announced that he will return for a comeback attempt next year after losing his seat last November to Republican Bernie Moreno. Though Mr. Brown is a prodigious fundraiser and has had a successful decades-long political career, the numbers suggest reversing his 2024 loss will be a formidable task. Last November, now-Sen. Moreno defeated Mr. Brown by 206,434 votes, or a victory percentage
CA Redistricting: The Five Targets
The California proposed retribution redistricting map that key staff members at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) drew is now public, and the process to adopt such a plan is underway. In order for the California Governor and legislators to replace their current congressional map before the 2030 census is completed, the leadership must find a way to usurp the California Citizens Redistricting Commission that the voters instituted through
The Iowa Hotbed
The Hawkeye State of Iowa will be among the nation’s hottest political domains in the next year, featuring competitive races from the top of the ballot to the bottom. Recently, we have seen new action occurring in several of the races. Sen. Joni Ernst (R) has not yet formally announced for re-election and rumors that she would retire and yield to US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) as the
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U.S. Senate Florida: Educator and 2025 special election congressional nominee Josh Weil (D) announced that he is dropping his US Senate bid. Mr. Weil says a health condition prevents him from continuing his campaign. Earlier this year, Mr. Weil ran as a socialist in a conservative district but managed to raise over $15 million mostly from national sources. Mr. Weil lost to now-Rep. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) by a
New Texas Map Unveiled
The new Texas proposed congressional map was unveiled last week and, as President Donald Trump predicted, the new draw could produce a net of at least four and possibly five more Republican seats in the 38-member delegation. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) added the issue to his special legislative session agenda, because the US Justice Department informed the Governor and Secretary of State that several of the state’s congressional districts
Redistricting Sabre Rattling
Though we are only at the midpoint before beginning a process that traditionally happens only once a decade, we could soon see redistricting action happening in several locations. With the redistricting bill pending in the Texas House, Republicans are pushing a map that could expand their U.S. House majority by adding several seats from the Lone Star State. But the plan has been stalled as enough Democratic lawmakers have
Mace and Blackburn Launch Governor Bids
South Carolina As has been expected for months, US Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) officially entered the open South Carolina Governor’s campaign. The June 2025 primary already has the makings of a Republican Battle Royal as at least five contenders will be competing for the party nomination to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster (R). Rep. Mace will be facing four-term Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of US Rep. Joe Wilson
New Georgia Senate Polling
One of the tightest 2026 US Senate races is sure to be found in the Peach State of Georgia and a new statewide poll already confirms a developing toss-up general election. The TIPP Poll organization released the results of their new survey (7/28-8/1; 2,956 GA registered voters; online) that forecasts US Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) potentially as Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D) top challenger. According to the related ballot test,
Trump Orders New Census
The redistricting wars are heating up early in this decade, but the latest move coming from Washington could increase the political temperatures to a “white hot” level. President Donald Trump recently ordered the Census Bureau to craft new state population numbers without including non-citizens. Taken to the fullest, the move could lead to transformational ramifications in many places over the course of time. As we know, the current redistricting
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U.S. Senate Alabama: Alabama US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) has scheduled what he is terming “a Big Announcement,” for August 15 and the supposition is he will declare his candidacy for the state’s open US Senate seat. The major clue is the festival-type event he is holding in the city of Sylvania, which is in the northeastern sector and about as far from his southern Alabama congressional district one
Iowa’s 2026 Senate Scene: Whispers, Warchests, and Waiting on Ernst
There has been much public speculation as to whether two-term Iowa Senator Joni Ernst (R) will seek re-election next year, and such talk has heightened because of circumspect actions emanating from the incumbent. On a local radio show, however, Sen. Ernst appeared to tap down the rumors, indicating that such talk is “titter tatter.” The Senator further said an announcement is “coming in the fall,” but stopped short of
Badger State Shakeup: Evers Exits, Political Chessboard Resets
Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) surprisingly announced that he will not seek a third term next year, which has initiated a game of Badger State political musical chairs. Previously, most observers believed that Gov. Evers would run and comments he made leading to the decision were clearly giving the impression that he wanted to call himself, “Three-Term Tony.” Gov. Evers would turn 75 years of age at the next
The Redistricting Wars Begin
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) adding congressional redistricting to the special legislative session issue call has already elicited a response from a Democratic adversary. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), attacking Gov. Abbott and the Texas redistricting move as a partisan power grab, says he will retaliate with his own legislature redrawing the Golden State congressional map to neutralize any seat gain that the new Republican map yields. Several points
Cooper In, Lara Trump Out: NC’s 2026 Senate Showdown Begins
After months of uncertainty, the shape of North Carolina’s high-stakes 2026 U.S. Senate race is finally coming into focus. For a time, major contenders from both parties kept their plans close to the vest, leaving party leaders and strategists guessing. But this week brought decisive moves from both sides. On Monday, former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) officially announced his candidacy, giving Democrats their biggest recruiting win of the cycle.
Grijalva Wins AZ-7 Primary and Cuomo Launches Independent Bid
Political succession in Arizona and a fractured mayoral race in New York City reflect broader shifts within Democratic power bases, as rising figures navigate legacy politics, party divisions, and changing voter dynamics in two of the nation’s most reliably blue strongholds. AZ-7 Former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, and daughter of the late Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson), won the special Democratic primary, easily defeating media influencer Deja Foxx and
Wisconsin Supremes Say No to Redistricting, Texas Says Yes
Redistricting battles continue to play a pivotal role in shaping the political landscape ahead of upcoming elections, with key states like Wisconsin and Texas at the center of intense scrutiny. In Wisconsin, the state Supreme Court recently declined to revisit challenges to the congressional map, leaving a district plan that critics say favors Republicans despite a closely divided electorate. Meanwhile, in Texas, Governor Greg Abbott (R) has added congressional
Early Jockeying in the NC Senate Race
After being publicly attacked by President Donald Trump (R) on social media following his "no" vote to advance the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis’ (R) surprised his state and Senate colleagues by announcing he wouldn't seek reelection next year. The prevailing analysis so far is that the Tar Heel State Republicans are in a more difficult position regarding holding this seat than had Sen.
Allred Joins TX Race
Former Congressman and ex-US Senate nominee Colin Allred (D) is returning to the campaign scene. Mr. Allred formally announced his 2026 US Senate candidacy and is “pledging to be a better candidate.” Despite his self-deprecating comment, Mr. Allred proved himself an able candidate and certainly a prolific fundraiser, accumulating $94.7 million for his 2024 statewide Senate campaign against incumbent Ted Cruz (R). The dollar amount was the fourth largest
A Wave of House Announcements
Over the Fourth of July break we saw at least 17 individuals announce their congressional candidacies, ten of which are worth mentioning from a competitiveness perspective. Many of the individuals became candidates this weekend as a show of patriotism over the national Independence Day holiday or in response to the “One Big Beautiful Bill’s” enactment. The seven not worthy of discussion, including a Democratic challenge to Speaker Mike Johnson
