Political Snippets from Across the Country
U.S. Senate Iowa: As predicted, Iowa Republican US Sen. Joni Ernst who won her previous elections in 2014 and 2020, announced that she will not seek re-election next year. Immediately, and also as predicted, US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) entered the race for the now open Senate seat. Rep. Hinson will be a viable GOP candidate, so the party will still be in strong position to hold the
Utah Joins Redistricting Wars
A new court decision has thrust another state to the forefront of the mid-decade redistricting battle that may be developing in as many as eleven states. A Utah judge recently issued a ruling that strikes down the state’s 4R-0D congressional map, saying the legislature did not have the right to usurp the citizens’ redistricting commission that voters approved via ballot proposition in 2018. The commission members crafted a congressional
Padilla Could Shake Up Governor’s Race
During recent interviews, California Sen. Alex Padilla (D) has confirmed that he is considering entering the 2026 open Governor’s race. If he does, the contest will fundamentally change. While the Senator says he will not decide whether to run until the special redistricting election concludes in November, the clues we will see between now and then will reveal his ultimate intention. The fact that he is publicly not denying contemplating
After 17 Terms, Nadler to Retire from Congress
The US House open seat count, at least temporarily, rose to 30 as 17-term Empire State Congressman Jerrold Nadler (D-New York City) announced that he will not seek re-election next year. The decision ends a long New York political career which featured Mr. Nadler holding an elected office consecutively since the beginning of 1977 when adding his combined time in Congress and the New York State Assembly. In an
Could the Sununu Name Again Reshape New Hampshire Politics?
GOP leaders were unsuccessful with one Sununu, but they may get another. While national Republicans failed to recruit former Governor Chris Sununu into the open New Hampshire Senate race, ex-US Senator John E. Sununu, brother of the four-term Granite State chief executive, has been traveling throughout New Hampshire and confirms that entering the race is under consideration. Ex-Massachusetts Senator and 2014 New Hampshire Republican Senate nominee Scott Brown is
Iowa Shake-Up: Ernst’s Exit Opens Senate Path for Hinson
On the heels of Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) announcing her retirement, three-term US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) quickly declared her candidacy for the now open Iowa Senate seat. Rep. Hinson will be a strong statewide candidate. In the US House since 2021, a state Representative for two terms, and a Cedar Rapids ABC affiliate news anchor before running for office, Congresswoman Hinson has both the political and media
Special Election Season Begins
As we know, the House has four vacant seats with the first in a series of rapid special elections held today, September 9. In Virginia’s 11th District, the battle to replace the late US Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) will largely be anticlimactic. The VA-11 seat is heavily Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 67.2D – 30.7R; Harris ’24: 65.7 – 31.4%), so an easy win for Fairfax County Supervisor
Lone Star Shuffle: Who Runs Where in Texas 2026?
Now that the new Texas redistricting map has been signed into law, displaced Democratic incumbents and potential candidates are deciding where they will run. In the Dallas area, a game of political musical chairs must be played. All three Texas Democrats who currently represent part of Dallas County no longer live in the district for which they will likely run. It is probable that Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas), whose
Political Snippets from Across the Country
U.S. Senate Alabama: Alabama US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) made his expected entry into the open US Senate race official. He will at least compete against two-term Attorney General Steve Marshall in the Republican primary. The eventual party nominee will become the prohibitive favorite to win the general election. Rep. Moore’s move will open the state’s 1st Congressional District, yielding a competitive Republican primary. Georgia: The TIPP Poll organization
Cornyn Posts First Polling Lead Over Paxton in 2026 Primary
For the first time this year, US Senator John Cornyn has posted a polling lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton in their 2026 Texas Republican primary battle. Emerson College tested the Lone Star State electorate (8/11-12; 1,000 TX registered voters; 491 TX self-identified Republican voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the results project Sen. Cornyn only edging AG Paxton by a scant 30-29%, but the survey clearly shows positive movement
Sherrod Brown Plots 2026 Comeback in Ohio
Former Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown (D) recently announced that he will return for a comeback attempt next year after losing his seat last November to Republican Bernie Moreno. Though Mr. Brown is a prodigious fundraiser and has had a successful decades-long political career, the numbers suggest reversing his 2024 loss will be a formidable task. Last November, now-Sen. Moreno defeated Mr. Brown by 206,434 votes, or a victory percentage
CA Redistricting: The Five Targets
The California proposed retribution redistricting map that key staff members at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) drew is now public, and the process to adopt such a plan is underway. In order for the California Governor and legislators to replace their current congressional map before the 2030 census is completed, the leadership must find a way to usurp the California Citizens Redistricting Commission that the voters instituted through
The Iowa Hotbed
The Hawkeye State of Iowa will be among the nation’s hottest political domains in the next year, featuring competitive races from the top of the ballot to the bottom. Recently, we have seen new action occurring in several of the races. Sen. Joni Ernst (R) has not yet formally announced for re-election and rumors that she would retire and yield to US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) as the
Political Snippets from Across the Country
U.S. Senate Florida: Educator and 2025 special election congressional nominee Josh Weil (D) announced that he is dropping his US Senate bid. Mr. Weil says a health condition prevents him from continuing his campaign. Earlier this year, Mr. Weil ran as a socialist in a conservative district but managed to raise over $15 million mostly from national sources. Mr. Weil lost to now-Rep. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) by a
New Texas Map Unveiled
The new Texas proposed congressional map was unveiled last week and, as President Donald Trump predicted, the new draw could produce a net of at least four and possibly five more Republican seats in the 38-member delegation. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) added the issue to his special legislative session agenda, because the US Justice Department informed the Governor and Secretary of State that several of the state’s congressional districts
Redistricting Sabre Rattling
Though we are only at the midpoint before beginning a process that traditionally happens only once a decade, we could soon see redistricting action happening in several locations. With the redistricting bill pending in the Texas House, Republicans are pushing a map that could expand their U.S. House majority by adding several seats from the Lone Star State. But the plan has been stalled as enough Democratic lawmakers have
Mace and Blackburn Launch Governor Bids
South Carolina As has been expected for months, US Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) officially entered the open South Carolina Governor’s campaign. The June 2025 primary already has the makings of a Republican Battle Royal as at least five contenders will be competing for the party nomination to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster (R). Rep. Mace will be facing four-term Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of US Rep. Joe Wilson
New Georgia Senate Polling
One of the tightest 2026 US Senate races is sure to be found in the Peach State of Georgia and a new statewide poll already confirms a developing toss-up general election. The TIPP Poll organization released the results of their new survey (7/28-8/1; 2,956 GA registered voters; online) that forecasts US Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) potentially as Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D) top challenger. According to the related ballot test,
Trump Orders New Census
The redistricting wars are heating up early in this decade, but the latest move coming from Washington could increase the political temperatures to a “white hot” level. President Donald Trump recently ordered the Census Bureau to craft new state population numbers without including non-citizens. Taken to the fullest, the move could lead to transformational ramifications in many places over the course of time. As we know, the current redistricting
Political Snippets from Across the Country
U.S. Senate Alabama: Alabama US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) has scheduled what he is terming “a Big Announcement,” for August 15 and the supposition is he will declare his candidacy for the state’s open US Senate seat. The major clue is the festival-type event he is holding in the city of Sylvania, which is in the northeastern sector and about as far from his southern Alabama congressional district one
Iowa’s 2026 Senate Scene: Whispers, Warchests, and Waiting on Ernst
There has been much public speculation as to whether two-term Iowa Senator Joni Ernst (R) will seek re-election next year, and such talk has heightened because of circumspect actions emanating from the incumbent. On a local radio show, however, Sen. Ernst appeared to tap down the rumors, indicating that such talk is “titter tatter.” The Senator further said an announcement is “coming in the fall,” but stopped short of
Badger State Shakeup: Evers Exits, Political Chessboard Resets
Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) surprisingly announced that he will not seek a third term next year, which has initiated a game of Badger State political musical chairs. Previously, most observers believed that Gov. Evers would run and comments he made leading to the decision were clearly giving the impression that he wanted to call himself, “Three-Term Tony.” Gov. Evers would turn 75 years of age at the next
The Redistricting Wars Begin
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) adding congressional redistricting to the special legislative session issue call has already elicited a response from a Democratic adversary. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), attacking Gov. Abbott and the Texas redistricting move as a partisan power grab, says he will retaliate with his own legislature redrawing the Golden State congressional map to neutralize any seat gain that the new Republican map yields. Several points
Cooper In, Lara Trump Out: NC’s 2026 Senate Showdown Begins
After months of uncertainty, the shape of North Carolina’s high-stakes 2026 U.S. Senate race is finally coming into focus. For a time, major contenders from both parties kept their plans close to the vest, leaving party leaders and strategists guessing. But this week brought decisive moves from both sides. On Monday, former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) officially announced his candidacy, giving Democrats their biggest recruiting win of the cycle.
Grijalva Wins AZ-7 Primary and Cuomo Launches Independent Bid
Political succession in Arizona and a fractured mayoral race in New York City reflect broader shifts within Democratic power bases, as rising figures navigate legacy politics, party divisions, and changing voter dynamics in two of the nation’s most reliably blue strongholds. AZ-7 Former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, and daughter of the late Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson), won the special Democratic primary, easily defeating media influencer Deja Foxx and
Wisconsin Supremes Say No to Redistricting, Texas Says Yes
Redistricting battles continue to play a pivotal role in shaping the political landscape ahead of upcoming elections, with key states like Wisconsin and Texas at the center of intense scrutiny. In Wisconsin, the state Supreme Court recently declined to revisit challenges to the congressional map, leaving a district plan that critics say favors Republicans despite a closely divided electorate. Meanwhile, in Texas, Governor Greg Abbott (R) has added congressional
Early Jockeying in the NC Senate Race
After being publicly attacked by President Donald Trump (R) on social media following his "no" vote to advance the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis’ (R) surprised his state and Senate colleagues by announcing he wouldn't seek reelection next year. The prevailing analysis so far is that the Tar Heel State Republicans are in a more difficult position regarding holding this seat than had Sen.
Allred Joins TX Race
Former Congressman and ex-US Senate nominee Colin Allred (D) is returning to the campaign scene. Mr. Allred formally announced his 2026 US Senate candidacy and is “pledging to be a better candidate.” Despite his self-deprecating comment, Mr. Allred proved himself an able candidate and certainly a prolific fundraiser, accumulating $94.7 million for his 2024 statewide Senate campaign against incumbent Ted Cruz (R). The dollar amount was the fourth largest
A Wave of House Announcements
Over the Fourth of July break we saw at least 17 individuals announce their congressional candidacies, ten of which are worth mentioning from a competitiveness perspective. Many of the individuals became candidates this weekend as a show of patriotism over the national Independence Day holiday or in response to the “One Big Beautiful Bill’s” enactment. The seven not worthy of discussion, including a Democratic challenge to Speaker Mike Johnson
