At this point, the succeeding listed incumbents must be rated as favorites to win again, but the 2024 presidential turnout model versus the midterm participation factor all were elected under in 2022 could change several outcomes.
On Saturday, Oregon’s Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D) was planning to announce that she will again run for the US House from her state’s 5th Congressional District but had to cancel the event because she was diagnosed with Covid. She will be back when recovered, but a large number of defeated 2022 candidates from both parties have already declared that they are willing to try again.
Below is a list of 20 announced rerun candidates:
Businessman Kelly Cooper (R) has announced he will again enter the Republican primary to challenge incumbent Congressman Greg Stanton. 2022 result: 56-44%
Former state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D) is back for another try against Rep. Juan Ciscomani* (R-Tucson). Recently, Ms. Engel’s only announced Democratic opponent dropped out of the race. 2022 result: 51-49%.
Former state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D), originally favored to win the open 13th District in the last election cycle, is one of four Democrats who will compete in the all-party jungle primary next year. The qualifying challenger will then oppose freshman Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) who won the second closest race in the country last November.
Ex-FBI agent Michael Maher (R), who performed better than expected in 2022 against Rep. Jim Costa (D-Fresno) in what should be a safe Democratic seat, should receive more support in 2024. 2022 result: 54-46%.
Rep. David Valadao* (R-Hanford) again won one of the most heavily Democratic House districts in the country to elect a Republican. Former state Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D) returns in 2024 for another attempt. 2022 result: 52-48%.
Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Los Angeles) has twice defeated Democrat David Kim by close margins in double-Democratic general elections. Mr. Kim just announced he will return for a third try. 2022 result: 51-49%.
Former prosecutor Will Rollins (D) ran well against veteran Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) in a district that contains more than a quarter new residents for the Congressman. Two local Democratic officials are also in the jungle primary. 2022 result: 52-48%.
Despite a R+15 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization, this 2022 race ended with the closest result in the nation. Former Aspen City Councilman Adam Frisch is expected to win a crowded Democratic primary. He and Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) will most likely again square-off in an expensive race next year. 2022 result: 50.1 – 49.9%.
Former prosecutor and local judge Carl Marlinga (D), who lost the 2022 race by just half a percentage point to now-freshman Rep. John James* (R-Farmington Hills), is returning to seek a re-match. Three other Democrats have also announced. 2022 result: 48.8 – 48.3%.
Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) may soon announce his Senate candidacy despite the national Republican leadership already endorsing retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy. Mr. Rosendale ran a close race to incumbent Jon Tester (D) five years ago. 2018 result: 50-47%.
State Sen. Tony Vargas (D-Omaha) announced at the end of last week that he will return for a rematch with four-term Rep. Don Bacon* (R-Papillion) in a district that could help determine the presidential campaign outcome. Nebraska is one of two states that apportion electoral votes through congressional districts. 2022 result: 51-49%.
Financial planner Mark Robertson (R), though largely viewed as an under-performer in 2022, returns for another try. 2022 result: 52-46%.
Former Congresswoman Yvette Herrell (R) is returning for an attempt to reclaim the seat she lost last November to now-Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-Las Cruces). The New Mexico state Supreme Court just ruled the Republicans’ redistricting lawsuit challenge can proceed, so the potential for redrawing the congressional map now exists. 2022 result: 50.3 – 49.6%.
Freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito’s (R-Island Park) victory over former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen (D) was perhaps the biggest upset in the 2022 election cycle. In what is viewed as the most Democratic seat that elects a Republican to the House, Ms. Gillen is returning to take advantage of what she believes will be a more favorable Democratic turnout in 2024. 2022 result: 51-47%.
In one of the Hudson Valley seats that flipped to the Republicans, then-Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro* (R) captured the 19th CD in the regular election after losing a special election earlier in the year. His general election opponent, attorney Josh Riley (D), returns but faces Democratic primary opposition. 2022 result: 50-48%.
Democratic state Representative Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) defeated Republican Madison Gesiotto Gilbert in 2022 and would be favored to win again in 2024. If the congressional map is redrawn, however, this district could change in the Republicans’ favor. 2022 result: 53-47%.
As mentioned above, 2022 Democratic nominee Jamie McLeod-Skinner is sure to return but will face credible primary opposition before getting another chance to compete against now-freshman Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer* (R-Happy Valley). 2022 result: 51-49%.
Though Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) won comfortably in 2022, in fact, it was the widest of his four congressional victories, Democratic nominee Ashley Ehasz is back for another attempt. 2022 result: 55-45%.
Freshman Rep. Monica de la Cruz (R-McAllen) recorded a strong 2022 result in flipping this South Texas district to the GOP for the first time. The result, however, is not deterring 2022 Democratic nominee Michelle Vallejo from trying again. 2022 result: 53-45%.
Despite the FiveThirtyEight data organization rating the southwestern Washington CD as R+11, Republican Joe Kent, after defeating incumbent Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) in the jungle primary, lost the seat to Democratic businesswoman Marie Glusenkamp Perez. Mr. Kent will face a crowded jungle primary but is back in the race to hope for a better outcome in ’24. 2022 result: 50.1 – 49.3%.
Several other defeated 2022 candidates around the country are considering launching new campaigns, but the aforementioned have committed to returning to the political wars next year. There is a potential of a large number of defeated 2022 North Carolina candidates returning after the congressional map is redrawn.
*denotes candidate received an AGC PAC contribution during the 2023-2024 election cycle.
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