We are seeing a large number of polls being reported, and the remaining part of October promises to bring a plethora of surveys into the public domain.

Below is the chart of the eleven Senate races that will decide which party either keeps or claims the chamber majority after the election. The 2022 Senate map favors the Democrats because they need only protect four highly competitive states versus the Republicans who must defend seven.

A twelfth state, Alaska, is also competitive in terms of whether incumbent Lisa Murkowski* (R) will return, but that race is evolving into a double Republican contest under the state’s new election jungle primary/ranked choice voting system.

The chart below summarizes the latest polls, those completed in the month of October, with the likely voters’ result being highlighted for this report unless registered voters is the only option. Surprisingly, we have seen no October polling from Florida and Pennsylvania, but new data should soon be available for both of those states.

From the current chart, we Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly (D) pulling away to a substantial average lead, 9.2 percentage points, but the polls have been inconsistent for the better part of a month. It would not be surprising to see further changes occur in this race when more polls are publicized.

Clearly, Nevada is the most vulnerable Democratic seat, as Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) has been trailing in most of the latest published surveys, but ticked ahead in one released yesterday. The early October average, so far, has both she and her Republican opponent, former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt*, languishing in a flat tie.

Ohio is still proving a problem for Republicans as Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren) continues to perform well in polling. Though Mr. Ryan holds an average lead in October, the most recent survey released yesterday posted Republican J.D. Vance* to a two-point edge.

We will update this chart as the election cycle continues to wind down toward election day on November 8th.