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New House Stats

The Daily Kos Elections site statisticians released their new data bank of information that featured presidential vote calculations for all of the new post-redistricting congressional districts.

These numbers are another key tool in helping to better analyze how the US House races will fall in the upcoming general election.

The calculations provide us a glimpse into how President Biden and former President Trump performed in the new congressional districts and which 2022 House contests will become the point races for determining the next majority.

Under the new maps, Daily Kos calculates that President Biden would have carried 226 congressional districts. Since the majority of the new districts voted Democratic in the 2020 national election, the current House Democratic conference would therefore start with a base of 226 seats, which is five more than they currently possess. Thus, Republicans currently control a number of these 226 seats, and the districts that the opposite party controls naturally become a focal point for November.

Precisely, Republicans currently hold 15 seats within the Biden coalition, ten of which are incumbent districts. The remaining five are moving into the general election as open seats. Conversely, in the Trump coalition of 209 seats, 14 are under Democratic control, six of which are current incumbent seats including one of the newest House members, Alaska at-large Rep. Mary Peltola.

Therefore, the 29 seats that are held by a party whose 2020 presidential candidate failed to carry host campaigns that should be the first to monitor for clues as to how the aggregate cycle is progressing.

The chart below features the ten GOP incumbents in order of vulnerability for the 2022 election; the 538 column displays the rating that the FiveThirtyEight data organization has calculated for the individual district. Therefore, the Republicans in post-redistricting Biden seats are:

Dist. Incumbent Biden 20 Trump 20 538

TX-34

Mayra Flores

57.3

41.8

D+17

CA-22

David Valadao*

55.3

42.3

D+10

CA-27

Mike Garcia

55.1

42.7

D+8

CA-45

Michelle Steel*

52.1

46.0

D+5

NM-2

Yvette Herrell*

51.9

46.1

D+4

OH-1

Steve Chabot

53.5

45.0

D+3

PA-1

Brian Fitzpatrick*

51.8

47.2

EVEN

NE-2

Don Bacon*

52.2

45.8

R+3

CA-40

Young Kim*

49.9

48.0

R+4

AZ-1

David Schweikert

50.1

48.6

R+7

The Democratic incumbents sitting in Trump districts, in general vulnerability order, are:

DIST

INCUMBENT

BIDEN 20

TRUMP 20

538

AZ-2

Tom O'Halleran

45.3

53.2

R+15

AK-AL

Mary Peltola

43.0

53.1

R+15

ME-2

Jared Golden

45.5

51.6

R+10

PA-8

Matt Cartwright

48.0

50.9

R+8

OH-9

Marcy Kaptur

47.7

50.6

R+6

IA-3

Cindy Axne

48.9

49.3

R+2

The remainder of the 29 seats are open 2022 election contests with, as mentioned above, five sitting in the Biden column and eight from the Trump coalition.

Therefore, in looking at the entire universe of House campaigns, these 29 CDs will be pivotal in determining the election cycle’s direction. The Democrats’ chances of holding their slim majority to a large extent may well come down to how their candidates perform in these particular districts.

In all, 87 seats feature some level of legitimate competition so there are clear options for both parties beyond the aforementioned universe, but the 29 presidential coalition seats will likely prove as the bellwether to the election cycle’s ultimate outcome. 

* denotes the candidate has received an AGC PAC contribution during the 2021-2022 election cycle. 


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