Polls: Trump Reaching 291

According to a series of concurrently conducted independent targeted state polls, former President Donald Trump today would lead in enough places to provide him with 291 electoral votes, or 21 more than required to unseat President Joe Biden.

Morning Consult conducted the polling series for Bloomberg News, and tested the electorates in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. All of the polls were conducted online during the October 10-15 period. The sample sizes ranged from 503 registered voters (Nevada) to 807 registered voters (Pennsylvania).

Former President Trump led in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. President Biden held the advantage in Nevada, and the two were tied in Michigan. None of the polling questionnaires included Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., now running as an Independent candidate. Doing so could have changed the margin at least to some degree in several of these studies.

Each of the ballot test results fell within the polling margin of error. Mr. Trump’s strongest state, surprisingly, was Georgia (48-43%; +5 points), a place where he faces multiple charges for election interference. Mr. Biden’s only lead, in Nevada, found him topping Mr. Trump 46-43%, a spread of three percentage points.

Thanks to national reapportionment, the eventual Republican candidate, almost assuredly Mr. Trump, has gained three electoral votes since the 2020 election. This is due to reapportionment redistributing seven congressional seats affecting 13 different states. When those gaining and losing seats are recalculated from an electoral vote perspective, Mr. Biden would have 303 electoral votes instead of 306 while Mr. Trump’s total increases to 235 from 232.

Therefore, taking these polls at face value, should Trump follow through and capture Arizona (11 electoral votes), Georgia (16), Pennsylvania (19), and Wisconsin (10), his electoral vote total would increase to 291. Mr. Trump carried North Carolina in 2020 and President Biden took Nevada, so those two states are already included within the original electoral vote total. In the Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll, Michigan produced a tie. Therefore, we leave this state in the Biden column since the President won the Wolverine State vote in 2020.

Last week, Emerson College found Trump topping Biden in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The Badger State margin (+2) was the same as the MC/Bloomberg poll projected. The Pennsylvania survey was considerably different, however. While MC/Bloomberg sees just a one point margin, the Emerson College survey found a 45-36% Trump lead.

In Michigan (15 electoral votes), the Marketing Resource Group released their poll last week (10/2-8; 600 MI likely voters) that showed Mr. Trump holding a 42-35% advantage. Emerson College also tested the Michigan electorate earlier in the month (10/1-4; 468 MI registered voters) and saw President Biden actually clinging to a one-point, 44-43%, edge.

It may be worthy of noting that the Emerson and MRG surveys were taken prior to the tragic conflict unfolding in Israel while the Morning Consult/Bloomberg studies were conducted as the fighting began.

The latest polling numbers only signify that Mr. Trump appears to be on an upswing during the current period. Still a year away from the election, much will happen to affect the results in the various battleground states. The important point is that in the states Mr. Trump must convert to overtake President Biden, he is demonstrating the potential to succeed.

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