President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump both took major steps forward to clinching renomination with almost clean sweeps in the Super Tuesday voting entities. Both men were respectively one entity short of winning every primary and caucus.

Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley topped former President Donald Trump in the Vermont Republican primary, and President Biden lost the American Samoa Caucus to unknown candidate Jason Palmer. Irrespective of those bumps along the nomination road, both President Biden and former President Trump are on track to become their party’s presumptive nominee before March 20th.

Alabama

The 1st District paired incumbents battle ended differently than polling suggested as Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) recorded a close victory over fellow Congressman Jerry Carl* (R-Mobile). The two were tossed into the same district as a result of the court-ordered redistricting map designed to create a new majority minority seat. Rep. Moore, at this writing, looks to have secured a 52-48% victory margin.

Though Mr. Carl represents 59% of the new district and Mr. Moore the remainder, the latter man performed much better in the portion of the new district that he currently represents. Therefore, Moore’s strong margins in familiar territory were enough to overcome Mr. Carl’s Mobile area base. Rep. Moore is now a lock to win the general election.

The new open 2nd District will, as expected, feature runoff elections for both parties. The Democrats will host a secondary runoff race between former Obama Justice Department official Shomari Figures and state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels (D-Montgomery).

For the Republicans, ex-state legislator Dick Brewbaker has qualified for the runoff but a tight battle for the second position exists between conservative attorney Caroleene Dobson and state Sen. Greg Albritton (R-Baldwin County), and it will require political overtime to determine which of the latter two advances.

The runoff elections are scheduled for April 2. The eventual Democratic nominee will be a heavy favorite to clinch the seat in November.

Arkansas

The lone competitive race on the Natural State ballot led to seven-term Rep. Steve Womack (R-Rogers) scoring a 57-43% win over state Sen. Clint Penzo (R-Springdale) in an outcome that was closer for the incumbent than initially expected.

California

Because the California counting system requires such a long period due to signature verification for the millions of mail ballots cast throughout the country’s most populous state, it may be several weeks before we have final totals. That means some of the many competitive races on the ballot may be undecided for quite a long period though most contests already have a projected winner.

The state’s premier campaign is the open Senate race where appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) is not seeking a full term. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) chose her as the interim Senator when incumbent Dianne Feinstein (D) passed away in September.

With more than half the votes recorded, both Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) and retired baseball star Steve Garvey (R) have been projected to capture ballot positions in the general election. At this point, Rep. Schiff has 33% of the vote to Mr. Garvey’s 32 percent. They defeated Reps. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) who attracted 14 and 7% of the vote, respectively. The final tallies could change, but it appears clear that Messrs. Schiff and Garvey will continue onto the general election while all other contenders are now officially eliminated.  

We see competition in 19 congressional races, many of which will not be finalized until much later in the counting process. Here is what we know so far:

District 3 incumbent Kevin Kiley* (R-Rocklin) will face former congressional finalist Jessica Morse (D) in November. In the Stockton anchored 9th CD, Rep. Josh Harder (D-Turlock) sees opposition from Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R). 

District 13 freshman incumbent John Duarte* (R-Modesto) will again do battle with former Assemblyman Adam Gray (D), thus leading a group of rematches from 2022. In the Fresno anchored District 21, Rep. Jim Costa (D-Fresno) will again be looking to turn away former FBI agent Michael Maher (R). 

In the Fresno area, Rep. David Valadao* (R-Hanford) looks like he will face a rematch from former state Assemblyman Rudy Salas in District 22, though all of the candidates are tightly bunched with just half of the vote tabulated. In District 34, for the third consecutive time, Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Los Angeles) will tangle with Hollywood executive David Kim (D). And, in Riverside County’s 41st District, veteran Rep. Ken Calvert* (R-Corona) once more draws former federal prosecutor Will Rollins (D) in a district that is much less favorable for the Republican incumbent. The closeness of this jungle primary election suggests another highly competitive race unfolding in the general election.

Former Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s (R) Bakersfield anchored 20th District will head to a special primary election on March 19th to fill the balance of the current term. In last night’s regular term jungle primary, state Assemblyman Vince Fong* (R-Bakersfield) captured first place, as expected, and may face fellow Republican and Tulare County Sheriff Mike Bourdeaux in the regular election. Most of the same candidates will be on the special election ballot. 

In north Los Angeles County’s 27th District, three-term Rep. Mike Garcia* (R-Santa Clarita) will, for the first time, face an opponent other than former state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D). Ex-Virgin Atlantic CEO George Whitesides will be the Congressman’s Democratic opponent in a district that tilts even more Democratic than the seat to which Mr. Garcia was first elected in a 2020 special election. Rep. Garcia exceeded expectations by outpacing Mr. Whitesides at this point in the counting by almost 30 percentage points in last night’s primary election.

Turning to the southeastern part of the state, Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-Indio) avoided a double-Democratic general election as Indio Mayor Oscar Ortiz fell well short of expectations. Rep. Ruiz will face Republican financial planner Ian Weeks in a race where the six-term incumbent is now the prohibitive favorite in the general election.

In Orange County’s competitive districts, it appears Rep. Michelle Steel* (R) will have a general election pairing with Iraq War veteran Derek Tran (D), while Rep. Young Kim* (R-La Habra) will seek a third term against retired fire captain and ex-state Senate candidate Joe Kerr (D). Both women record well over 50% of the vote with over half the ballots recorded.

Republican Scott Baugh, who held Rep. Porter to a 52-48% win in 2022 even when being outspent by an almost 10:1 ratio, looks to have secured a general election position and will likely face state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) in November in what will be a highly competitive campaign.

In the remaining five open seats, state Assemblywoman Laura Friedman (D-Los Angeles), former Congressman Gil Cisneros (D), and Assemblywoman Luz Rivas (D-Arleta) have likely secured their open seats for the November election since they will face Republican challengers in heavily Democratic districts. Ms. Friedman will replace Rep. Schiff, while Mr. Cisneros will assume the 31st District as successor to retiring Congresswoman Grace Napolitano (D-Norwalk), and Ms. Rivas will assuredly replace retiring Rep. Tony Cardenas (D-Pacoima).

We will see two double-Democratic general elections in open seats. In Oakland, Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) director Lateefah Simon will advance into the general election. Likely hanging onto second place is college professor Jennifer Tran. Ms. Simon will be a heavy favorite to replace Rep. Lee.

In the South San Francisco Bay region, former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo and San Mateo County Supervisor and ex-state Senator Joe Simitian look to be the finalists, but state Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) is a close third and could still sneak past Simitian for second place. The winner of the double-Democratic general election will replace retiring Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton).

North Carolina

As expected, the open Governor’s primary yielded a general election that will feature Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson for the Republicans and Attorney General Josh Stein as the Democratic nominee. Both easily won their respective primary elections last night.

In the competitive House races under the new congressional draw, retired Army Colonel and attorney Laurie Buckhout (R) will challenge freshman Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) in a district that is less favorable to the Democratic incumbent than under the previous map.

In the open seats, Trump endorsed lobbyist Addison McDowell and former Congressman Mark Walker will advance to a May 14th Republican runoff election because no one reached the 30% plateau. With no Democratic candidate filed, the winner of the secondary nomination contest will replace retiring Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro).

With 8th District Rep. Dan Bishop (R-Charlotte) winning the GOP Attorney General’s nomination, Baptist pastor Mark Harris (R), who looked to have won the seat in 2018 only to be thwarted because of proven voter fraud, may have eclipsed the 30% mark to win the Republican congressional nomination. If so, he will do battle in the general election with technology consultant Justin Dues (D). If not, he and former Union County Commissioner Allan Baucom will advance to a Republican runoff.

Another outright open seat winner is firearms manufacturer and former 14th District candidate Pat Harrigan (R) who defeated state Rep. Grey Mills (R-Mooresville) and will succeed retiring 10th District Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-Lake Norman).

An additional runoff will occur in the north-central 13th District, as Republican attorney Kelly Daughtry and attorney Brad Knott advance into a May 14th runoff election. The secondary election winner will be a heavy favorite against Democratic frequent candidate Frank Pierce.

In the new 14th District, as expected, state House Speaker Tim Moore* (R-Cleveland County) easily won the Republican primary which will prove tantamount to winning the November general election.  

Texas

In a mild surprise, US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) secured majority support in the crowded US Senate Democratic primary to clinch the party nomination outright. He will now challenge Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in November.

In the House races, state Rep. Craig Goldman (R-Tarrant County) secured 44.4% of the Republican primary vote, and will advance to a runoff election with real estate developer John O’Shea. The winner of that election will assuredly replace retiring veteran Congresswoman Kay Granger (R-Ft. Worth).

Rep. Tony Gonzales* (R-San Antonio), who was facing four Republican opponents all attacking him, fell short of majority support and is forced into a GOP runoff with firearms manufacturer Brandon Herrera. Trump endorsed candidate Brandon Gill easily won outright the open 26th District Republican primary. Retiring Rep. Michael Burgess (R-Pilot Point) will yield the seat to Mr. Gill after the November election. It appears that state Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Dallas) barely topped the 50% mark to win the Democratic nomination and is in strong position to succeed Rep. Allred in the Dallas anchored 32nd District.

In Houston, Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D) survived a tough primary challenge from former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards with 60% of the Democratic primary vote.

Rematch races will occur in the Rio Grande Valley. Rep. Monica de la Cruz (R-McAllen) will again see Democrat Michelle Vallejo in the general election in District 15, while Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) will once more face former US Rep. Mayra Flores (R) in the Brownsville anchored 34th CD.