At this point, the House majority is still undetermined and according to the CNN Elections Results page, 26 contests remain uncalled. Their defined partisan division count shows 211 Republicans and 198 Democrats.
Obviously, the odds favor Republicans because they are only seven seats away from clinching the majority at 218 seats while Democrats need to win 20 of the outstanding races. A closer examination, however, suggests the probability of a turnaround in these political fortunes is less daunting.
Adjusting the remaining races where one party or the other has a clear edge in a combination of current vote spread, number of votes outstanding, the districts’ partisan edge, and voting history, we can adjust the CNN numbers to reflect a Republican advantage of 212 to 208. Doing so brings the number of highly competitive races down to 15.
From this 15, when understanding that the Republicans would now need six wins to claim a minimum majority and the Democrats’ ten, the two parties’ victory odds become closer.
Looking at the 15, a slight edge can be given to the Republicans in seven races while the Democrats can be considered a slight favorite in five. The remaining three appear too close to call.
If this model is accurate, the Republicans would have enough to block the Democrats from gaining the majority, and might reach 221 if all of the three wild card races were to fall their way.
The seven contests where Republicans lead and look to have a better chance of winning the seat are the following:
- AZ-6: Juan Ciscomani* (R) leads Kirsten Engel (D) by 5,394 votes with 82% counted
- CA-22: Rep. David Valadao* (R) leads Assm. Rudy Salas (D) by 3,855 votes with 32% counted
- CA-27: Rep. Mike Garcia* (R) leads Christy Smith (D) by 16,151 votes with 49% counted
- CA-41: Rep. Ken Calvert* (R) has taken a 1,285 vote lead over Democrat Will Rollins with 43% of the vote counted
- CO-3: Rep. Lauren Boebert (R) has come from behind to now lead Democrat Adam Frisch by 1,122 votes with 99% counted. The majority of remaining votes appear to come from counties favoring Ms. Boebert
- NY-22: Republican Brandon Williams maintains a 3,925 vote lead over Democrat Francis Conole with 94% of the vote counted
- OR-5: Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer* holds a 6,792 vote advantage with 86% of the vote counte
Democrats have the advantage in the following five seats:
- CA-21: Rep. Jim Costa (D) tops Republican Michael Maher with a 7,463 vote lead with 49% counted
- CA-47: Rep. Katie Porter (D) leads Scott Baugh (R) by 2,970 votes with 63% counted
- CO-8: St. Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D) leads Barbara Kirkmeyer* (R) by 1,862 votes with 94% counted
- NV-3: Rep. Susie Lee (D) leads Republican April Becker* by 4,646 votes with 90% counted
- OR-6: Andrea Salinas (D) tops Mike Erickson (R) by 4,058 votes with 80% counted
The following undeclared races are difficult to determine a clear advantage:
- AZ-1: Jevin Hodge (D) leads Rep. David Schweikert* (R) by 4,577 votes with 80% counted
- CA-13: John Duarte (R) leads Assm. Adam Gray (D) by 257 votes with 44% counted
- MD-6: State Delegate Neil Parrott (R) leads Rep. David Trone (D) by 2,811 votes with 89% counted
As you can see, the Republicans have the advantage in more of these contested races and the easier path to the majority, but the leads, particularly in the California seats with so many votes left to count in the various districts, are quite tenuous.
More information will be forthcoming shortly. The California seats, on the other hand, are likely many days away from being projected based upon the number of votes outstanding and the slowness of the count progression in the state.
Late yesterday, the following races were called and are included in the defined overall count:
- CA-40: Rep. Young Kim* (R) defeats Asif Mahmood (D)
- MT-1: Former Rep. Ryan Zinke (R) defeats Monica Tranel (D)
- NV-1: Rep. Dina Titus (D) defeats Mark Robertson* (R)
- NV-4: Rep. Steven Horsford* (D) defeats Sam Peters (R)
- WA-8: Rep. Kim Schrier (D) defeats Matt Larkin* (R)
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