DCCC’s Initial Targets

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) released their first targeting list entitled “Red to Blue,” though the group of 17 House districts actually contained one already in the Democratic column.

In alphabetical order by state, the list of 17 includes 16 Republican districts where the DCCC has endorsed a Democratic candidate:

The Michigan district included in the above list is that of Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing). Her run for the Senate leaves her central Michigan seat open, but the Democrats winning here in 2024 would not result in a party division gain.

Of the 16 Republican districts, in only six did both President Joe Biden carry, and the FiveThirtyEight data organization provide a numerical rank so as to consider lean Democratic. Therefore, on this list, the half-dozen names below should be viewed as the most achievable targets, which, as you will see, are California and New York dominant.

They are:

STATE

DIST

INCUMBENT

DCCC CANDIDATE

AZ

6

Juan Ciscomani*

Kirsten Engel

CA

13

John Duarte*

Adam Gray

CA

22

David Valadao*

Rudy Salas

CA

27

Mike Garcia*

George Whitesides

CA

41

Ken Calvert*

Will Rollins

CO

3

OPEN

Adam Frisch

IA

1

M. Miller-Meeks*

Christine Bonnahan

IA

3

Zach Nunn*

Lanon Baccam

MI

7

OPEN

Curtis Hertel

MT

1

Ryan Zinke

Monica Tranel

NE

2

Don Bacon*

Tony Vargas

NY

3

SPECIAL ELECTION

Tom Suozzi

NY

17

Mike Lawler*

Mondaire Jones

NY

19

Marc Molinaro*

Josh Riley

OR

5

L. Chavez-DeRemer*

Janelle Bynum

TX

15

Monica de la Cruz*

Michelle Vallejo

VA

2

Jen Kiggans*

Missy Cotter Smasal

 

CA-13 (Duarte); CA-22 (Valadao); CA-27 (Garcia); NY-3 (Special election; Santos); NY-17 (Lawler); and OR-5 (Chavez-DeRemer). This underscores that the key states to determine the next House majority are the Golden and Empire States.

Most of the endorsed Democratic candidates (12 in the 16 Republican held seats) previously ran and lost their race in 2022. A total of ten unsuccessfully opposed the current GOP House incumbent, while two lost other races (Tom Suozzi, Governor; Mondaire Jones, NY-10).

Curiously, some other vulnerable districts were excluded from this first release. Likely, this is due to one of three reasons: the DCCC has not yet endorsed a candidate; they don’t see a sufficiently competitive challenger within the current field; or, they perceive the Republican incumbent as being too strong.

They are:

AZ-1             David Schweikert*
CA-40           Young Kim*
CA-45           Michelle Steel*
FL-13            Anna Paulina Luna
FL-27            Maria Elvira Salazar*
MI-10            John James*
NJ-7              Tom Kean, Jr.
NY-4              Anthony D’Esposito
NY-22            Brandon Williams
PA-1              Brian Fitzpatrick
PA-10            Scott Perry
WI-1              Bryan Steil

 

Most of the members included within this latter group will be added to later target lists. The fact that Rep. Steil’s name is not yet appended to the “Red to Blue” listing suggests that the Wisconsin State Supreme Court may not order a redraw of the congressional map this cycle. Keeping Rep. Steil’s congressional district intact would give him little incentive to launch a statewide campaign against Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D).

At this point in the new redistricting process, Republicans are likely gaining a net one seat, but the New York redraw hasn’t yet occurred. The GOP is assuredly gaining three seats from North Carolina, while the Democrats look to increase by one each in Alabama and Louisiana. Since the Georgia and Florida maps will not likely change for the 2024 election portends good news for Republicans; likewise for the Democrats in New .


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