A new national poll from a pair of major media outlets finds President Joe Biden significantly trailing both former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
While the ballot test may be slightly skewed thus explaining why this poll reveals a slightly more pronounced ballot test than most others, some of the underlying numbers may actually prove more troubling for the President.
ABC News and the Washington Post released their national results from the poll conducted 4/28-5/3 of 1,006 US adults (438 Republican and Republican leaning voters; 396 Democratic and Democratic leaning voters) via live interview.
On the national ballot test, among an unspecified number of registered voters, President Biden trails both Mr. Trump, 39-45%, and Gov. DeSantis, 38-44%. As stated many times before in previous Updates, the national popular vote poll is not particularly important. The race will likely come down to how key states such as Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin ultimately break.
As you can see from above polling statistics, there are more Republicans interviewed as part of the ABC/WaPo sampling universe than Democrats. While the parties are relatively even in terms of affiliation around the country, if anything, the Democrats traditionally have at least a slight advantage.
The pollsters obviously weighted the result for a partisan balance, but more Republicans comprise the sample leading to the results favoring the GOP candidates by a somewhat greater degree than most other polls conducted during a similar period. This suggests the GOP candidates may be benefiting from a slight skew.
The other polls, conducted within a similar time frame, are listed below. They are:
YouGov (for The Economist; 4/29-3/2) Biden +3 (over DeSantis); Even (Trump)
Rasmussen Reports (4/24-5/2) Trump +7 (Biden); DeSantis not tested
Premise (4/27-5/1) Trump +3 (Biden); Biden +5 (DeSantis)
Morning Consult (4/28-30) Biden +2 (Trump); Biden +2 (DeSantis)
A preponderance of the data points give us typical information, and those questions isolated President Biden and Mr. Trump. As is the case in virtually every poll, both President Biden and Mr. Trump are upside down on the approval rating question.
The warning signs for the President, however, come from different segments. Most particularly, he scores only 42% approval among non-white voters (48% disapproval) and among Hispanics (40:52%). Improving within these segments will be critical to President Biden’s re-election prospects.
Another warning sign is the question posed to the registered voter respondents, asking them who they believe has done a better job handling the economy. By a margin of 53-38%, the entire RV sample chose Mr. Trump. Two other areas of concern for the President are key voter segments that were largely responsible for his 2020 victory, meaning women and suburban voters.
Among females, Mr. Biden’s job approval is a poor 39:54% positive to negative. Within the suburban voter segment, Mr. Biden records only a 36:57% approval ratio.
Both candidates, Biden and Trump, suffer in the honesty perception category, and most particularly the latter. Only 41% of the respondents believe President Biden to be honest, with 54% disagreeing. Mr. Trump’s ratio is worse, 33:63%.
Obviously, Mr. Trump is still battling on the legal front, and these numbers suggest political trouble ahead. By a margin of 49-44%, the sample believes it is appropriate to charge him with crimes in New York. The numbers grow worse, 56-38%, when looking at potential charges about Trump attempting to overturn the election results in Georgia. With regard to prosecuting him for holding classified documents after he left office, a similar 54-38% margin thinks he should be charged.
Surprisingly, according to the Washington Post analysis, 26% of the people who believe Trump should be charged in all of the aforementioned instances still say they would vote for him over President Biden. No questions were asked regarding President Biden’s situation involving classified documents, nor were queries posed associated with the Hunter Biden investigation.
We can count on seeing changing data throughout this election cycle. The results of this particular ABC/Washington Post poll are inconclusive because they don’t test the key states, and both major candidates are viewed in a negative light. How each attempts to improve his respective personal image will be a key facet of each man’s campaign.
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