Presidential Race

Georgia

Public Policy Polling’s new Georgia poll (6/25-26; 734 GA self-identified “voters”), gives former Vice President Joe Biden a 49-45% edge in this most critical of battleground states. The Democratic nominee, however, being up at this point in the election cycle is not particularly unusual. Looking back at the 2016 race, the Real Clear Politics polling archives reveals that while President Donald Trump led in almost every Georgia poll four years ago, two in early August, from the Atlanta Journal Constitution and JMC Analytics, found Hillary Clinton topping her opponent by four and seven points, respectively.

Missouri

Garin-Hart-Yang Research conducted a fully online poll of the Missouri electorate (6/16-22; 800 MO likely general election voters; online) and project Joe Biden to be taking a two point 48-46% lead over President Donald Trump in what is still regarded as a safe Republican state. An online poll is typically unreliable and an unusual vehicle for Garin-Hart-Yang. Six other polls have been conducted of the Show Me State electorate since early April, and all find President Trump maintaining a lead between four and 13 percentage points.
 
Pennsylvania

Susquehanna Polling & Research, a Harrisburg, PA based survey firm, during the middle of the week released the results of their new Keystone State study (6/15-23; 715 PA likely general election voters). According to their likely voters data, former Vice President Joe Biden would lead President Donald Trump, 46-41% in the critically important swing state. 
 
Wisconsin

The Trafalgar Group, the only polling firm to correctly project President Donald Trump winning a close Wisconsin contest in 2016, again defies the polling mainstream. Their new Badger State survey (6/23-25; 1,021 WI likely voters) reveals a one point, 46-45% edge, in the President’s favor. A trio of other June polls from three separate pollsters give former Vice President Joe Biden leads between six and eleven points. During the 2016 election cycle, the Trafalgar Group poll was the only survey during the entire election cycle (33 polls) that found Mr. Trump leading Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin. He would win the state by 22,748 votes.
 
U.S. Senate Races
 
Alabama

The Cygnal research group released survey data (6/13-16; 560 AL likely general election voters) that found retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville (R) leading Sen. Doug Jones (D), 50-36%, and former US Attorney General and Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) holding a 45-35% advantage over the first-term Senator as they strive to finish the postponed GOP runoff that will be decided July 14. At the end of last week, the Democratic firm ALG Research (6/18-22; 600 AL likely general election voters) countered with figures showing a much closer race, though still posting both Tuberville and Sessions ahead of Jones. ALG finds Mr. Tuberville holding a 47-44% general election lead, while Mr. Sessions’ edge was a similar 45-43 percent.
 
Arizona

Three polls conducted during the June 26-29 period produced very different results. Change Research, as part of their semi-national poll over six battleground states including Arizona, found retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) leading appointed Sen. Martha McSally* (R), 53-44%. This poll has a huge error factor, however, since it is online derived and used a sample of only 311 likely voters, barely enough for one congressional district poll. Local pollster Data Orbital (6/27-29; 600 AZ likely voters), however, found a similar result with a better polling methodology. They find Kelly holding a 50-43% advantage. Gravis Marketing, however, has a completely different take in their Arizona poll conducted fully on June 27th of 527 likely voters. They project Sen. McSally to be holding a 46-42% lead, her first such edge through 14 polls over the last five months.
 
Colorado

Former Colorado Governor and presidential candidate John Hickenlooper won the state Democratic primary this week with a 60-40% win over former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. The victory margin was less than originally expected but pumped up after Hickenlooper began losing ground. Outside groups, including national Democratic institutional organizations, came to the rescue with a seven-figure media buy to help the former Governor’s cause. He now advances into the general election to face Sen. Cory Gardner* (R).
 
Georgia

The previously mentioned Public Policy Polling survey (see President section above) also tested the Georgia special Senate election among those described as “voters.” Though closing, PPP finds Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville) still leading the jungle primary field but with a reduced margin of 23-21-20% over appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) and Baptist pastor Raphael Warnock (D). In run-off pairings pitting each Republican against Rev. Warnock, Rep. Collins would hold a 43-41% advantage, while Sen. Loeffler would trail him, 40-43%.
 
Kentucky

A full week after the Kentucky primary, which featured a record turnout of more than 1 million voters in the combined Democratic and Republican primaries, retired Marine Corps helicopter pilot Amy McGrath was finally projected to have defeated state Rep. Charles Booker’s (D-Louisville) in a close race. With more votes still awaiting to be counted from several counties, Ms. McGrath did well in rural areas throughout the state but lost the biggest population centers of Louisville, Lexington, and Bowling Green. The actual vote count yielded a McGrath lead of 45.4 – 42.6% over Rep. Booker, a spread of 15,149 votes of the 544,062 ballots so far recorded and tabulated. Ms. McGrath now faces Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell* (R) in the general election.
 
Maine

Moore Information just released a new survey that defies recent polling trends. Their just released Maine poll (6/20-24; 600 ME registered voters) finds Sen. Susan Collins* (R) resuming the lead over her likely Democratic general election opponent, state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D-Freeport). The Moore figures post Sen. Collins to a 45-37% advantage. Prior to this survey, Ms. Gideon had led in three of the last four statewide polls conducted since mid-February.
 
North Carolina

Two North Carolina US Senate polls were released and again show just how different separate polling samples can behave. The Democratic firm Change Research, which prides itself on developing its “Bias Correct” methodology, conducted their North Carolina survey as part of a national study over the June 26-28 period that included five other states and an aggregate 3,729 respondents. Their NC sample was 468 likely voters. Change produces a 51-41% lead for ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) over first-term US Sen. Thom Tillis* (R). Conversely, East Carolina University (6/22-29; 1,149 NC registered voters) finds a much different political picture. According to the ECU much larger survey sample, the two candidates are tied at 41% apiece.
 
Oklahoma

Veteran Senator Jim Inhofe* (R), who, at 85 years of age, is seeking a fifth full term, easily won his Republican primary last Tuesday with a 75% victory margin. His now-official Democratic challenger is former television report Abby Broyles, who easily became her party’s standard bearer on Tuesday night. Sen. Inhofe is a heavy favorite for re-election in November.

Texas

Fox News surveyed the Texas Senate race (6/20-24; 1,001 TX registered voters) and paired incumbent Sen. John Cornyn* (R) with both of the Democratic runoff candidates, retired Army helicopter pilot M.J. Hegar and state Sen. Royce West (D-Dallas). Sen. Cornyn’s standing against both potential opponents is virtually the same. He tops Ms. Hegar, 46-36%, and Sen. West, 47-37%. The postponed Texas Democratic runoff is scheduled for July 14.
 
U.S. House of Representatives Races
 
CO-3

The shock of June 30 primary night was five-term Colorado Rep. Scott Tipton (R-Cortez) losing to insurgent challenger Lauren Boebert, a business owner who stressed 2nd Amendment protection and less government as her campaign message staples. Though spending less than $200,000 on her campaign, Ms. Boebert, who owns an Interstate 70 restaurant called “Shooters Grill” in Rifle, CO and typically wears a firearm strapped to her hip, successfully painted Rep. Tipton as falling in with the Washington, DC crowd and defeated him by almost 10,000 votes. Rep. Tipton becomes the fifth incumbent to lose re-nomination this year, and the third Republican. Ms. Boebert now advances into the general election against 2018 nominee Diane Mitsch Bush, who won the Democratic primary with 61% of the vote. The general election is now expected to be competitive.

GA-7

In 2018, Georgia’s 7th District was decided by just 419 votes. Now, in an open seat campaign, we see a poll suggesting that another close finish is likely to occur. According to a post-primary Public Policy Polling survey (6/19-20; 589 GA-7 registered voters), 2018 Democratic nominee Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) leads retired Navy officer and physician Rich McCormick (R), 42-39%, well within the polling margin of error.

Kentucky

Despite the low returns, all six Kentucky House members were clearly re-nominated even though returns are scant. On the Republican side, the five incumbents scored between 88 and 94% of the early tabulated and released votes while Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Louisville) was unopposed in the Democratic primary. All six incumbents now become heavy favorites in what will likely be non-competitive general election contests.

MN-1

In 2018, Republican Jim Hagedorn scored a close 50.1 – 49.7% win over former Defense Department official Dan Feehan (D). Now, we head into a re-match general election this year, and a new Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group internal campaign survey (6/9-13; 601 MN-1 likely general election voters) finds the new race beginning just as close as the former contest ended. According to GHY, Mr. Feehan holds a slight 43-42% edge, meaning we will likely see another race in toss-up mode all the way to Election Day. Minnesota’s 1st District covers all of the state’s southern border and has been moving more toward the Republicans in recent elections. It was one of only three seats that flipped from Democrat to Republican in 2018.

NJ-5

There has been some talk that the Democratic primary challenge to Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wyckoff/Bergen County) could get close but a new TargetSmart poll (released 6/25; 400 NJ-5 likely Democratic primary voters) dispels such a notion. According to the Target data, Rep. Gottheimer would destroy Glen Rock town Councilwoman Arati Kreibich by a 66-23% count. Such a margin suggests that Mr. Gottheimer will easily win re-nomination to a third term. The postponed New Jersey primary is scheduled for July 7.

New York

State Sen. Chris Jacobs* (R-Buffalo) won the 27th District special election and will be sworn into the current House of Representatives. He defeated former Grand Island Town Supervisor Nate McMurray, 69-29%, to take the seat and replace resigned Rep. Chris Collins (R). Mr. Jacobs then easily won the Republican primary for the regular term, defeating two GOP opponents.

When all absentee ballots are counted, sixteen-term Rep. Eliot Engel (D-Bronx) is expected to lose his seat to former middle school principal Jamaal Bowman by a 61-35% margin. In Manhattan, Rep. Carolyn Maloney has less than a 1,000 point lead in her primary contest against hotel executive Suraj Patel, the race has still not been called.
 
In the two Bronx area open seats, New York City Councilman Ritchie Torres has a wide lead in the multi-candidate battle to replace retiring Rep. Jose Serrano (D-Bronx), while attorney Mondaire Jones posts a 2:1 margin over his closest Democratic opponent in the Bronx/Westchester County district to replace retiring Rep. Nita Lowey (D-Harrison). 

NC-11

Western North Carolina voters spoke loudly as real estate investment company owner Madison Cawthorn recorded a 66-34% landslide win over former local county Republican chair Lynda Bennett in the postponed Republican runoff election. This, despite Ms. Bennett having former Rep. Mark Meadows’ and President Donald Trump’s endorsement. Mr. Cawthorn, who barely makes the qualifying age requirement to be a candidate, won 16 of the district’s 17 counties. He now becomes a strong favorite to defeat Democratic nominee Moe Davis, a retired US Air Force colonel, in the general election.

OK-5

Oklahoma’s 5th Congressional District, which contains the state’s largest metro area of Oklahoma City, will see two Republicans advance into an August 25 runoff election. Former Lt. Governor nominee Terry Neese placed first in the crowded field of nine candidates, topping state Sen. Stephanie Bice* (R-Oklahoma City) by eleven percentage points, but the latter woman’s finish was strong enough to advance her into the runoff. The eventual GOP nominee then challenges freshman Rep. Kendra Horn (D-Oklahoma City) in a race that becomes a Republican must-win.

PA-1

More attention is being paid to Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District, which occupies much of the Bucks County area in suburban Philadelphia, since two-term Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick* (R-Levittown) recorded only 63% of the vote against weak opposition in his Republican primary. Now, an internal House Majority PAC poll (6/7-14; 403 registered voters of which 60% were conducted via cell phone and said to be at least “50/50” about voting in November) finds the Congressman leading new Democratic nominee Christina Finello, by a scant 45-44% margin. When leaners are added, the two contenders are tied.

PA-10

Another survey was released from a district that does not draw much national attention. Democratic pollster GBAO Strategies conducted their survey in late May but is just releasing the numbers now (5/28-31; 600 PA-10 likely general election voters). The results find Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg) opening with a slight 50-47% lead over State Auditor Eugene DePasquale (D) in what is again expected to be a close race. In 2018, Rep. Perry was re-elected with a 51-49% margin after the state Supreme Court ordered a re-draw of the Pennsylvania congressional districts. 

TX-13

A WPA Intelligence survey for the Club for Growth (6/17-18; 408 TX-13 likely Republican runoff voters) finds retired Admiral Ronny Jackson, who carries President Donald Trump’s endorsement, now taking the lead over former congressional aide and current lobbyist Josh Winegarner in the upcoming July 14 GOP runoff election. The WPA results find Mr. Jackson holding a 49-41% advantage. The poll appears accurate especially when seeing Winegarner immediately launch an attack ad against Jackson, suggesting that the former man’s internal polling also shows him falling behind.
 
UT-1

The open Republican primary, which will decide who replaces retiring Rep. Rob Bishop (R-Brigham City), looks to be going ex-Foreign Service officer and businessman Blake Moore’s way. From post-election counting after the original election night votes were published, Mr. Moore now maintains a 2,669 vote margin over Davis County Commissioner Bob Stevenson. This is way up from his 576 vote edge on election night. Former Agriculture Commissioner Kerry Gibson and local Mayor Katie Witt are too far behind to overcome their vote deficits. The eventual GOP nominee, and now looking more like Mr. Moore, will become the prohibitive favorite in the general election.
 
UT-4

Businessman and former NFL player Burgess Owens scored a convincing victory Tuesday night in the 4th District Republican primary, defeating state Rep. Kim Coleman (R-West Jordan) and two others with 43% of the vote. Though over half the precincts are still not reporting, Mr. Owens has already been projected as the winner. The 4th District race featuring Rep. Ben McAdams (D-Salt Lake City) and now Mr. Owens will be one of the most important congressional races in the country and is a GOP must-win if the party is to make any concerted effort to re-capture the majority.
 
Virginia

Two key Virginia races now have nominees. In Virginia’s 5th District, Democrats selected local physician Cameron Webb scored a landslide 66% victory to oppose former Campbell County Supervisor Bob Good (R), the man who denied freshman Rep. Denver Riggleman* (R-Manassas) re-nomination in the June 13 Republican district convention. Mr. Good, however, still must obtain a ballot placement waiver from the Virginia Board of Elections for missing the candidate filing deadline.
 
In the Tidewater area, a re-match of the 2018 campaign will occur. Former Rep. Scott Taylor, who lost his seat in that election, will return for a re-match with his Republican primary victory last Tuesday. He will battle freshman Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Norfolk) in the general election. 
 
Governor Races/State Races and Ballot Measure
 
Mississippi

Gov. Tate Reeves (R) has signed legislation to place a referendum on the November ballot that will, if passed, change the state’s Jim Crow era voting system that makes gubernatorial candidates win a majority of state House of Representatives’ districts irrespective of their finish in the popular vote. The referendum would eliminate the state House requirement and instead install a general election runoff like the state of Georgia uses. There, if no general election candidate receives an absolute majority of votes, a run-off between the top two finishers occurs in the post-election period.
 
New York

New York City election officials say they won’t even start counting absentee ballots until sometime next week. While some Upstate counties are moving quicker, Long Island election officials claim it could take more than two weeks before they are ready to release even unofficial final returns. Several races remain uncalled, and there is a good chance the state will take a month to finally certify their general election nominees.
 
Utah

In another race that is not quite over but trending a certain way, Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox leads the Republican primary field with an updated margin of 10,929 vote advantage over former Gov. Jon Huntsman, but the latter man leads in dominant Salt Lake County by almost 17,000 votes. The remaining candidates, former state House Speaker Greg Hughes and ex-Utah Republican Party chairman Thomas Wright are too far back to have a realistic chance of winning. The eventual Republican nominee will become the prohibitive favorite to succeed retiring GOP Governor Gary Herbert. Mr. Cox is maintaining his lead and appears to be positioned for a close win over Mr. Huntsman, but it is difficult to tell exactly how many votes remain outstanding.