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US Senate: A Polling Comparison

Today, we look at the competitive Senate races and segment the group around polling consistency. Several races routinely report point spreads between the two major party candidates that are wildly inconsistent, while others vary over a small difference often within the same polling period.

The two most extreme surveys during the month are listed for each state with the most extreme first and the closest second. You will notice that the British firm, Redfield & Wilton Strategies, is often listed as the most extreme.

We begin, alphabetically by state, with the inconsistent group. Only the two Georgia races are in the September consistent segment.

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US House Challenger Candidates With a Lead

Is already seeing eight 2020 US House challengers unseat their incumbent opponents, obviously all in the primaries, a precursor to a larger number of incumbents losing their seats in the general election? 

In typical election years, well over 90% of incumbents who seek re-election win. Therefore, eight members denied re-nomination in their own party primary elections is an unusually high number. What’s more, turning to the general election, 22 House incumbents have trailed in at least one poll since July began.

Below is the list of incumbents, alphabetically by state, who are facing what appear to be the most competitive challengers in the country.  All challengers have led the incumbent in at least one political poll of their race. Tomorrow, we will cover the remaining eleven.

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Not So Fast

Soon after the announcement that Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg had passed away, Sen. Susan Collins* (R-ME) made a statement indicating that she would not support until after the election a motion to proceed that would allow the Senate to vote on confirming a Supreme Court replacement.

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US House Race Postponed

A bizarre occurrence has happened in Minnesota that will apparently delay the 2nd Congressional District election until February 9, 2021. Under state law, if a major party candidate passes away within 79 days of the general election date, the vote for the affected office is delayed for approximately three months.

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Where the Senate Stands Today

A tough battle is underway for the US Senate majority, and both parties are fiercely attempting to assume control in the next Congress. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, but a win in Alabama would send them to 54-46, and that makes the Democrats’ road to the majority all the more difficult.

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The Debates

The Presidential Debate series looms on the political horizon, and controversy is beginning to swirl even though the first forum is still a month away.

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Snippets From Across the Country

Listed below are political snippets on congressional and gubernatorial races across the country. Enjoy!

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Today's Elections in Alaska, Florida & Wyoming

August primary season continues today with nomination elections occurring in Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming.

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Snippets from Around the Country

Listed below are political snippets on congressional and gubernatorial races across the country. Enjoy!

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Results From Last Tuesday's Primaries

The two most controversial candidates on the primary ballot last Tuesday were both nominated and advance into safe general election campaigns from their respective states.

Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) withstood a hard-fought and expensive Democratic primary challenge from attorney Antone Melton-Meaux for a 57-39% re-nomination victory in a district election that drew the highest turnout of the night (just over 160,000 voters). Both candidates raised well over $4 million apiece for their respective campaigns.

In Northwest Georgia, businesswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) who has drawn attention for her association with the QAnon movement, a loose organization of individuals who believe that the government’s “deep state bureaucrats” are conspiring to take down President Donald Trump, won the Georgia 14th District Republican runoff election. 

Ms. Greene defeated Rome area surgeon John Cowan by a 57-43% margin from what will likely be over 75,000 voters who participated in the runoff vote. The final turnout number could soar, however, since a relatively substantial number of mailed ballots remain to be counted. The primary election in this district drew over 108,000 voters.  

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